Boris Johnson could face a by-election by the summer after his tetchy Partygate grilling.
Tory colleagues believe the former PM is “toast” after the three-hour interrogation at the hands of the Privileges Committee on Wednesday.
And a former Government source said the “chance of a real comeback” for Mr Johnson is “pretty much nil.”
The Committee is expected to deliver its verdict on whether he “recklessly” or “intentionally” lied to Parliament when he said lockdown rules had been followed in Downing Street.
While they have the power to recommend his expulsion from Parliament, it’s thought such a nuclear option is unlikely.
But members of the committee, keen to be seen as protectors of the Commons’ reputation, shouldn’t struggle to reach the bar of a 10 sitting days - which would trigger a recall vote.
And the Committee is understood to be allowed to take into account “aggravating” factors when deciding their recommended suspension length.
Mr Johnson and his legal team questioned the process and legitimacy of the Committee - even hinting he might not accept the investigation had been fair if they ruled against him.
“I think that if this Committee were to find me in contempt of Parliament,” he said in evidence, “...that would not only be unfair, but it would be wrong.”
Supporters of Mr Johnson, including Jacob Rees-Mogg, have dismissed the probe as a “kangaroo court.”
With Mr Johnson’s support among MPs reduced to a handful of his most vocal defenders - some of whom turned up to noisily back him during Wednesday’s questioning - the Commons is almost certain to vote to approve the Committee’s recommendation.
Rishi Sunak last week confirmed Tory MPs will be allowed a free vote on the recommendation. Many supporters of the ex-PM to stay away on the day, to avoid the furious pushback from voters that they suffered for opposing Owen Paterson’s suspension for breaking lobbying rules.
One major Tory donor said his impression of the party’s mood was that “with the parliamentary party, Boris Johnson was toast.
“And he is gradually losing support from the grassroots.”
Once passed, a recall petition would need to attract just over 7,000 signatures from voters in Uxbridge - which could be passed in days, formally removing Mr Johnson as an MP and triggering a by-election.
Tory Kwasi Kwarteng, who served as Business Secretary under Mr Johnson, said on Friday that his former boss had done “reasonably well” under questioning - but would still be found guilty.
“I think they feel that there has to be something, some outcome, some verdict to which he’s held responsible or culpable,” he told Talk TV.
“Imagine if we had all of this furore, all of this committee and they said he did nothing wrong. That’s the pressure, really, I think that they’re under.”
Mr Johnson, on the other hand, is said to be relatively upbeat about Wednesday’s questioning.
“Boris and his team were very satisfied with his presentation of his arguments. He felt the session went well and enjoyed it,” a source close to Mr Johnson said.
“We wait for the privileges committee to bring forward its findings and we will study them with care when they arrive.”
