Boris Johnson has reached another humiliating milestone in his premiership as he faces an official investigation for "lying" to Parliament.
The Prime Minister had flown to India, taking a number of media outlets with him, in a bid to distract attention from his domestic woes.
But his premiership has taken another disastrous turn with influential Tory MP Steve Baker calling for him to quit, and William Wragg highlighting how "depressed" MPs feel "defending the indefensible".
Tory MPs withdrew their bid to delay a decision to refer the PM for investigation, so now the Privileges Committee will probe his conduct and could find him in contempt of Parliament.
It may protect the PM from immediate danger, but many feel the longer this drags on the further Mr Johnson will find himself in dangerous waters as Parliament approaches its summer term and begins to prepare for the conference season.
So what happens now?
Why is Boris Johnson accused of lying to Parliament?
The Prime Minister repeatedly denied knowledge of parties in No10 and Whitehall - then it emerged he attended half of dozen of those probed by police.
After admitting he WAS at parties, he changed tack and said he didn't think they were parties at the time.
The crucial question is whether he deliberately misled Parliament - knew what he was saying was wrong, when he said it.
The PM has insisted he was just reflecting his understanding at the time.
What have MPs voted for?
MPs have voted to refer the matter to the Privileges Committee, which will investigate if Boris Johnson committed contempt of Parliament.
A motion tabled by Keir Starmer said there are at least four comments by Boris Johnson that “appear to amount to misleading the House”:
- 1 December 2021: ‘All guidance was followed in No10’
- 8 December 2021 ‘I have been repeatedly assured since these allegations emerged that there was no party and that no Covid rules were broken’
- 8 December 2021: ‘I am sickened myself and furious about that, but I repeat what I have said to him: I have been repeatedly assured that the rules were not broken’
- 8 December 2021: ‘The guidance was followed and the rules were followed at all times’.
The vote passed ‘on the nod’ without a recorded result for each MP, because Tory whips didn’t formally oppose it.
What were the last-minute shenanigans all about?
The Tories didn’t want to approve yet another embarrassing investigation into their leader’s conduct.
So they tabled an amendment that would have kicked the decision about whether to start a probe into the long grass.
But this backfired because Labour ’s amendment already said the actual investigation wouldn’t start until police had finished their inquiries.
As rebel Tories voiced their disgust, Tory whips U-turned, dropped the amendment, and said MPs were free to back Labour’s motion after all.
Furious critics said it was an echo of November, when Boris Johnson tried to get MPs to block a suspension for rule breaking MP Owen Paterson.
What happens now?
Not very much - at first.
The motion ensures no “substantive” investigation will start until after the Met Police finish their probe into 12 Downing Street and Whitehall parties.
That’ll take at least two weeks, because Scotland Yard aren’t giving any updates until after the May 5 local elections, and likely longer.
Even once an investigation starts, it is likely to take weeks or months before producing a report which goes back to Parliament for approval.
What is the Privileges Committee?
It is the body in charge of deciding whether MPs have committed a contempt of Parliament.
It is led by Labour MP Chris Bryant, but four of the seven members are Tories and he has recused himself from taking part.
People can be found in contempt for “deliberately misleading” the Commons - the most famous example is War Secretary John Profumo, who misled MPs by denying an affair in 1963.
But it’s extremely rare - and MPs who admit “inadvertently” misleading the Commons normally avoid a ruling of contempt.
The last MP to face direct sanction from the committee was Tory Justin Tomlinson in 2016. He did not mislead Parliament - he leaked a credit crackdown report to Wonga.
In recent years the committee has also rapped Dominic Cummings for refusing to give evidence, and ruled News International bosses misled during a hearing on phone hacking.
How will the investigation work?
Once police finish dishing out fines, a probe will “consider whether the PM’s conduct amounted to a contempt of the House”.
Parliament’s rulebook Erskine May says the Commons can decide MPs who “deliberately mislead” them are in contempt.
But there is no single definition of contempt so it will be a tricky investigation.
Will Boris Johnson be punished?
In theory, the Prime Minister could be ordered to apologise, or even suspended from the House of Commons.
But the Privileges Committee doesn’t actually take action against an MP in contempt - it reports back to the Commons which has the final say.
Any punishment will be decided by a vote of all MPs in the Commons, where a substantial majority is held by - you guessed it - Boris Johnson!
It’s convention that MPs will just accept what the committee says… but we don’t live in conventional times.
It’s less than six months since Boris Johnson tried to get MPs to break convention and overturn a ruling by the Standards Committee, in the case of Owen Paterson.
In reality, the political fallout of lying to Parliament would probably matter more than the actual punishment MPs could inflict anyway.
