Boris Johnson’s supporters are increasingly doubtful he could make a comeback as prime minister after being “humiliated” over his post-Brexit deal with the European Union.
Though allies have been agitating for Johnson’s return in an attempt to try to reverse the Conservatives’ stubbornly low poll ratings, some privately conceded the appetite among sceptics of Rishi Sunak to challenge their leader was depleting.
A significant sign that the tide had turned against Johnson came when Jacob Rees-Mogg, the former Commons leader, urged fellow Tory MPs to “calm down and live with the leader we’ve got”.
Though Rees-Mogg said he had been the “boy who stood on the burning deck” by supporting Johnson until the bitter end, he told ITV: “If we’re a grown-up party we cannot change leader again between now and an election.”
Some hardcore loyalists of Johnson remain confident he could sweep back into No 10 after a “spanking” for the Conservative party in the spring local elections.
A senior Tory source said they had been approached by those still close to the former prime minister for “informal conversations about the future” – but those had never come to fruition. “The fight’s gone out of most people,” the source said. “There’s not a lot of coordination any more.”
Several MPs who were part of the roughly 100 that supported Johnson’s attempt to re-run for Conservative leader in October privately said they believed the clamour for him to return was waning.
“We are getting close to the general [election], it’s just around the corner,” confessed one. “We’ve run out of time for Boris’s antics.”
Another believed that Johnson had been “humiliated” by Sunak’s announcement this week, and suggested there was a “total reverse ferret” – journalistic parlance for a U-turn – from those who had been threatening to resign to damage the prime minister’s position.
Despite a Johnson supporter warning that scrapping his Northern Ireland protocol bill could bring 100 Tory MPs to rebel, the former prime minister has so far made no critical comment about the Windsor framework unveiled by Sunak on Monday.
In a sign that Johnson does not want to appear openly hostile, the Guardian understands he is set to attend the two-day away event being hosted by Sunak for all Conservative MPs beginning on Thursday in Berkshire.
Robert Hayward, a Conservative peer and elections expert, said the prime minister’s new Northern Ireland deal was the “first significant event” since taking office that had “put the Johnson supporters heavily on the back foot”.
“It hasn’t pushed Johnson away but it has diminished his potential influence,” said Hayward. Noting the implicit criticism of Sunak and the European Commission president, Ursula von der Leyen, he added: “I can’t think in recent years of any politician for whom there has been such a battering in absentia.”
Tobias Ellwood, a Tory MP who had the whip temporarily stripped by Johnson, said the Windsor framework had shown that “our standard of statecraft has moved up a couple of gears”.
He said: “Bombastic populism may rally a small base but does not appeal to the wider electorate whose support is needed to win elections.”
Johnson was also accused of being outrageously disloyal by Rory Stewart, a former Tory cabinet minister. “Although I loathe him – I think he is a terrible person, terrible prime minister – [he] is still popular with many people in the Conservative party,” Stewart told LBC.
Johnson was absent from the Commons chamber for Sunak’s victory speech on the rewritten Northern Ireland protocol, but he did make an appearance to push for greater nuclear investment on Tuesday.
In a jibe at the former prime minister’s ambitions, Ed Miliband, the ex-Labour leader, told him from the dispatch box: “It is important to welcome ex-party leaders to their place. My only advice is that it is important to not want your old job back.”
A spokesman for Johnson says he was “supporting the government” and “continues to campaign on issues including Ukraine and levelling up”. They added: “He is campaigning in his constituency and in parliament.”
