Often misquoted as a bon mot of Napoleon — but really the quizzical remark of tough 17th-century French ruler Cardinal Mazarin — the question to ask of a general is not “is he skilful?” but “is he lucky?” The “lucky generals” trope is as relevant to political combatants as military ones. Boris Johnson has inhabited the “lucky” ranks during his eventful and often erratic career. His winning streak has prevailed while foes, internal and beyond, have gnashed their teeth at his moral turpitude and patchy competence.
At the same time, luck is a factor of charisma, which is an undeniable plus for Johnson. One minister who is still weighing the odds on his boss’s survival points out that when he recently accompanied Johnson on a trip to a Midlands marginal territory, workers at a factory were hanging out of windows to grab a picture. Johnson may have fallen into the “tainted stardust” category, by dint of his tendency to see norms and constraints on his power as something to be got around or simply defied (as in his egregious change to the ministerial code, such that he cannot be found guilty of breaking it in the lockdowns).
But his party has been unwilling to risk the less certain bet of a less exciting helmsman, in which case, the competition with Keir Starmer would be between two nice-but-dull technocrats and the argument for a change of party at the helm might well strengthen. Nor are they yet convinced by the Foreign Secretary Liz Truss’s tribute to Margaret Thatcher’s iron lady style.
It runs too close to the new Abba holograms, which only serves to remind the faithful of nostalgia for the original.
These days too, there is real angst on the Conservative benches, making rebels of quiet foot soldiers like the former attorney general Jeremy Wright and respected backbencher Bob Neill, both of whom have now opted to ditch the PM in disillusion at his response to the Sue Gray report.
The score of formal calls for Johnson’s head is more like individual cries of despair and disillusionment from the backbenchers than a concerted push, but as such, it is harder for Johnson’s team to dismiss as a self-interested plot.
Add to that the “usual suspects” like David Davis, who suspended his call for Johnson to go when the Ukraine crisis erupted. That conflict is still raging. But the PM is fast losing his “Ukraine bonus” as dissatisfaction mounts. As one long-standing backer puts it: “If Kyiv was the main marginal target, Boris would be home and dry. But that doesn’t wash so much in the Red Wall or disaffected southern seats.”
Number 10’s response has been to stand firm and simply declare that any attempt to oust him would fail. This is the theory of “lucky general” versus “scattered revolutionaries”. The aim of election strategists including Isaac Levido, the shrewd researcher and campaign planner instrumental in the 2019 general election result, is to re-consolidate Johnson at the helm, to such an extent that challengers will end up scattered. In truth however, no leader wants to risk the damage of a no-confidence vote — even if they win it.
So either Johnson can once again out-shine his detractors and work more convincingly with his Chancellor to deliver relief from the hard squeeze of recession — in which case he will be able to run for a second term as the lesser risk to economic revival. Or he looks like a figure whose devious bullet-dodging skills are not up to the challenge of dealing with the next big crisis to affect the country as inflation bites and recession looms.
A series of testing by-elections are the next torment. As a former party strategist puts it, “every morning after a local defeat is a turn of the screw against the incumbent”.
So yes, the PM is truly lucky and wily and can bank for now on the disaggregated nature of opposition. But that is not a guarantee of future inviolability. It is also a recommendation against an early election, given the lack of a Tory poll lead since the partygate saga began. Tory voices saying Labour is doomed to defeat are more tentative these days. It is still very possible that Johnson will prove durable and can stare down his challengers. But to do so, he has to look not only like a PM who can “hang on”, but one who offers the safest route to victory for a tired and nervy party. Luck is a great thing to have in politics. A plan is better.
