Boris Johnson and a number of senior Tory MPs risk losing their seats at the next election if the fail to level up Britain, experts have said.
The Prime Minister will need to deliver on his flagship policy if he wants to maintain his 80-strong majority, research from the Onward think tank reveals.
Former cabinet ministers Iain Duncan Smith and Theresa Viliers are two Tories at risk of losing their seats, with the smallest majorities.
Onward's report titled 'Another brick in the wall', suggests the Tories could lose 12 of their battleground seats in the south of England, including Mr Duncan Smith's Chingford and Wood Green seat and Ms Viliers's in Chipping Barnet - to the Labour party.
But it is not support for Keir Starmer's policies that would unseat these Tories - as the biggest threat comes from the far right.
The report said that a Nigel Farage-styled 'NewKip' party could emerge as a credible challenger and cost the Conservatives 53 seats, wiping out their majority and resulting in a hung parliament.
On the other hand, a Liberal Democrat-Labour pact would only cost the Conservatives 44 seats.
Will Tanner, Director of Onward and former Deputy Head of Policy during Theresa May's time in No10, said: “The next election, like the last, will be won in the North of England.
"While the South is steadily becoming less Conservative over time, there is no Blue Wall waiting to fall across the home counties in two years’ time.
“But there are dozens of traditional Labour seats in the North that could yet switch. This report underlines why making headway on 'levelling up' is utterly essential for the Conservative Party - and why Labour still has a mountain to climb.”
The Tories enjoyed a solid poll lead after conference season, with the PM welcoming world leaders to Cop26 in Glasgow shortly after.
But after the Mirror broke the initial story on lockdown breaching parties, the Tories slumped to almost their worst polling numbers since Mr Johnson took over.
It saw Mr Johnson's personal approval rating collapse with 15 of his own MPs calling for his resignation as parties he attended are the subject of a police investigation.
Onward's report proposes six in ten battleground seats at the next election will be in Northern England, compared to just two-in-ten in the south.
It could come as welcome news for the Conservatives, described as losing their southern 'Blue Wall' voter base.
In the North, senior Labour and Lib Dem MPs including Shadow Home Secretary Yvette Cooper’s and former Liberal Democrat Leader Tim Farron could lose their seats to the Tories.
James Blagden, Chief Data Analyst and Head of Onward’s Future Politics programme, said: “The heart of the Tory Party has been shifting northwards for the last thirty years. Since Margaret Thatcher’s 1983 landslide, there has been a steady decline in Conservative support in London and the Home Counties and growth in the North and the Midlands.
“That trend is set to continue.
"But the greatest short-term concern for the Conservatives should be backsliding in the Red Wall, losing their iconic 2019 gains, and putting their majority at serious risk.”
“The Conservatives stand on shaky ground, with their 2019 gains not yet secure and traditional southern heartlands slowly drifting away.
"The Government needs to deliver tangible results on levelling up and focus on uniting the coalition around their shared values.”
A few weeks ago, the PM said he is “working very hard” with Tory colleagues north of the border on levelling up the country.
The Prime Minister visited Rosyth as a deal was announced between the Scottish and UK Governments which will lead to the creation of two “green freeports” north of the border.
Freeports, which are special economic zones offering tax breaks and lower tariffs for businesses, are being promoted by the UK Government as part of its “levelling up” agenda.
