While the threat of Delta locked New Zealand down in August, the newest variant ripping its way through Kiwi homes is the key that’s finally unlocked the border gates. It’s a refreshing burst of good news in an increasingly bleak time, writes political editor Jo Moir.
Opinion: Apart from a brief stop-start 95 days of the trans-Tasman bubble, the only way into the country for almost two years has been an enforced two-week stay in managed isolation.
From Thursday that will all change - firstly for Kiwis living in Australia who will be able to return home without needing to self-isolate, and then from Saturday for those coming home from the rest of the world.
The original timeline for the border reopening didn’t have Kiwis outside of Australia being allowed to return and self-isolate until March 13.
Not only has the seven days of isolation been dropped, but the date has also been brought forward by more than a week.
As for the rest of the staged reopening to other visa holders, Australians and then all other vaccinated foreign nationals, advice has been provided by the Covid strategic group and Cabinet will review it and make decisions soon.
Sir David Skegg, who chairs that group, says it would be appropriate to drop self-isolation for all those vaccinated groups as well, but getting over the peak of Omicron cases in the community should be factored into the timing.
While the dates haven’t yet been set, the Prime Minister says those steps will be brought forward, which will be music to the ears of tourism operators, airlines, and airports.
It’s a huge mindset change for those living abroad who have been separated for years from family and friends, who can now book a flight home without the stress of last-minute border changes.
It will feel like stepping back in time for some returning Kiwis while for those who have lived here throughout, it will be the inevitable culture shock that has been brewing for several months.
Given the borders are being flung open right as the country braces itself for a peak of cases, there are very few things that would stop it now – the only exception would be a new and more dangerous variant.
Skegg has already warned of that, saying he expects Omicron won’t be the variant being discussed by the end of this year.
That gives a decent window for Kiwis overseas to plan and head home, or those already here to fly abroad, enjoy a holiday and return.
Just what people will return to in the coming months is the real unknown with daily cases sitting close to 15,000 already and only an upward trajectory from here on out.
Health officials are currently predicting the country will reach the peak by mid-to-late March, but it is still unclear how long it could take for the peak to drop off and hospitalisations to normalise.
Jacinda Ardern says the modelling she received about opening the border (with a seven-day self-isolation requirement) indicated there would be about 10,000-13,000 Kiwi arrivals per week from all around the world.
That is expected to introduce into the community up to 425 imported positive cases - but that number would be higher without self-isolation.
Relative to the case numbers currently in the community, Ardern says the impact on the health system would still be considered manageable and minimal.
Even if the number doubled with the self-isolation requirements dropped, it is still a small proportion of the total cases in the community being announced each day.
Many of those Kiwis returning home after two or more years abroad have already experienced the Omicron peak overseas and will be arriving in the middle of New Zealand’s.
While for the most part, businesses, schools and recreational facilities will do their best to operate throughout, there will be plenty of instances where staffing means that can’t happen and parts of the country will be left running on one engine.
For the first time ever, Kiwis will collectively catch Covid and everyone will know someone with it, and some will know people in hospital because of it.
It will feel like stepping back in time for some returning Kiwis while for those who have lived here throughout, it will be the inevitable culture shock that has been brewing for several months.
Welcoming home family and friends and being able to travel again is the good news many have been hoping for and social media will tell you tears of joy were shed on hearing Monday’s announcement.
With the tough bit still to hit everyday life, a bit of good news to hold onto couldn’t have been better timed.
