Summary of the day …
The UK’s annual inflation rate fell sharply to 6.8% in July, from 7.9% in June. The drop in energy prices over the past year led to the smallest increase in the cost of living since February 2022. The data was hailed by prime minister Rishi Sunak, who said halving inflation was his number one priority.
The chancellor, Jeremy Hunt, said inflation is “causing enormous pressure on families up and down the country” and “There is absolutely no room for complacency in the battle against inflation”. Inflation remains well above the Bank of England’s target of 2%, and a rate of 6.8% means prices continue to increase. The rate for annual food inflation was much higher than the core rate, standing at 14.9%.
The deputy Labour leader, Angela Rayner, called the fall in inflation a “relief”, but said “we didn’t have to be here”. She blamed the Tory government for crashing the economy and not providing growth.
Rayner also asserted her position within Keir Starmer’s shadow cabinet during her morning media appearances, declaring: “I will be deputy prime minister and I will be the deputy leader of the Labour party.”
The Liberal Democrats have accused prime minister Sunak of being “woefully out of touch” after he appeared to claim that people do not understand the level of support being given to them on energy bills.
The annual government expenditure and revenue Scotland (Gers) figures show that according to its calculations Scotland’s deficit has reduced to 9% of GDP. Last year’s Gers figures recorded Scotland deficit as 12.3% of GDP. The UK’s equivalent deficit figure was 5.2% of GDP. The figures reveal that North Sea revenue was at its highest-ever level at £9.4bn, reflecting high energy prices.
Scotland’s wellbeing economy secretary, Neil Gray, hailed the reduction. He also claimed a “full £1bn” of the deficit in Scotland was “the direct result of the UK government’s mismanagement of the public finances”. Scottish Labour finance spokesperson Michael Marra said: “Today’s statistics plainly show the economic benefit that Scots receive as part of the UK.”
Junior doctors in Scotland have voted conclusively to accept the latest pay offer from the Scottish government, BMA Scotland has said.
The mayor of London, Sadiq Khan, has again asked three councils to permit new signs warning drivers of the expansion of the capital’s ultra-low emission zone (Ulez) to be installed on their land. Surrey, Kent and Hertfordshire county councils, all of which border Greater London and have Conservative majorities, have all declined to have Transport for London (TfL) funded and managed signs installed which would warn drivers.
The boss of Britain’s biggest insurer, Aviva, has said there are “big opportunities” in expanding private health cover in the UK as the strain on the NHS grows and waiting lists for treatments hit record highs.
A former solicitor general has called for a public inquiry into the wrongful conviction of Andrew Malkinson after the Guardian revealed that the police had key DNA evidence 16 years before he was cleared of rape.
London councils are having to spend hundreds of thousands of pounds of taxpayers’ money repairing vandalised bollards and cameras in LTNs.
The Captain Tom Foundation is under renewed scrutiny after reports its co-founder Hannah Ingram-Moore was paid thousands of pounds via a family company for appearances linked to the charity that bears her father’s name.
This blog will be closing shortly. Thank you for all your comments as ever, especially on what has been such a slow news day with a lot of English politicians clearly focussed elsewhere. I will be back with you tomorrow.
Junior doctors in Scotland vote to accept pay offer from Holyrood
Junior doctors in Scotland have voted conclusively to accept the latest pay offer from the Scottish government, BMA Scotland has said.
The union said that following extensive discussion, it agreed unanimously it would recommend that members accept the offer as the best next step for Scottish doctors in the ongoing campaign for full pay restoration.
The move comes after junior doctor members of HCSA Scotland, the union representing hospital doctors, on Tuesday voted to accept the Scottish government pay deal.
PA Media reports junior doctors in Scotland will receive a pay rise of 12.4% backdated to April.
Dr Chris Smith, chairman of the BMA’s Scottish junior doctor committee (SJDC), said: “This offer moves us from a position where pay restoration was a strongly-held conviction within our profession to a shared goal that the Scottish government has publicly committed to working with us to complete.
“Key to this offer, that sets it apart from what is happening elsewhere in the UK, is that the Scottish government recognises this reality and has agreed to ongoing negotiations towards full pay restoration to 2008 levels, with an unprecedented commitment to set inflation as the floor of the pay offer at each round of negotiation.
Scotland’s health secretary, Michael Matheson, said: “I am very pleased that BMA members have overwhelmingly voted to accept this record pay deal for junior doctors.
“This is the single biggest investment in junior doctor pay since devolution and maintains our commitment to make Scotland the best place in the UK for junior doctors to work and train. Due to the meaningful engagement we have had with trade unions, we have avoided any industrial action in Scotland – the only part of the UK to avoid NHS strikes.”
Updated
London mayor urges Tory-led councils to permit installation of Ulez signs
The mayor of London, Sadiq Khan, has again asked three councils to permit new signs warning drivers of the expansion of the capital’s ultra-low emission zone (Ulez) to be installed on their land.
Surrey, Kent and Hertfordshire county councils, all of which border Greater London and have Conservative majorities, have all declined to have Transport for London (TfL) funded and managed signs installed.
PA Media reports that the mayor’s spokesperson said: “Councils have a responsibility to ensure their residents and all motorists are aware of important changes that may impact drivers.
“By refusing to allow TfL to install Ulez warning signs at key junctions, these councils are not fulfilling their responsibility to ensure their residents and other motorists have all the information they need to avoid driving into the Ulez inadvertently.”
A Kent county council spokesperson said: “We fully understand and appreciate our obligations as a highways authority, and the safety of road users is always our priority. We stand by our decision not to adopt Ulez signage for as long as there is no mitigation to minimise the impact of the expansion of the scheme on Kent residents.”
Matt Furniss, cabinet member for transport at Surrey county council, said the local authority would refuse to allow TfL to install signs on its roads “whilst there isn’t any mitigation in place to minimise the impact of the expansion on Surrey residents”.
Khan’s spokesperson said: “The mayor is urging these three county councils to put their politics aside and do what’s best for their residents and drivers.”
Updated
Lola Okolosie is an English teacher and writer and she has written for the Guardian today to say people shouldn’t be fooled by Tory scare stories on the ‘ghost children’ missing from school:
Framing the crisis in terms of potential criminality, rather than the measures needed to make a difference to these woeful rates of absence, is a convenient exercise in shifting responsibility from government on to the shoulders of some of the most disadvantaged children.
Since 2013, there has been a 46% reduction in the number of educational welfare officers – the people whose job it is to break down the hurdles to children attending school. Early intervention funding for schemes such as Sure Start has been cut by £1.7bn – almost two-thirds – since 2010, while youth services lost £660m in the same period.
Child and Adolescent Mental Health Services (Camhs) are overstretched and buckling under soaring demand. Nearly all headteachers polled say funding for pupils with special educational needs and disabilities is insufficient. Only the disingenuous would claim this bears no relation to the reality that it is the same pupils who are most prone to absence.
When those of us on the left repeatedly sounded the alarm about the impending and terrible consequences of Tory austerity, we appealed to a sense of compassion, arguing that to implement such swingeing cuts to our public services constituted a moral failing that would haunt us in years to come. Thirteen years on, current absence figures testify to the importance of vital services that provide mental health support and early years intervention to struggling families.
Read more here: Lola Okolosie – I’m a teacher: don’t be fooled by Tory scare stories on the ‘ghost children’ missing from school
Lib Dems say Sunak 'woefully out of touch' after he appears to say people don't understand their energy bills
The Liberal Democrats have accused prime minister Rishi Sunak of being “woefully out of touch” after he appeared to claim that people do not understand the level of support being given to them on energy bills.
According to the BBC, Sunak told a business event in Leicestershire: “A typical family will have had about half their energy bills paid for by the government over the past several months – that’s worth £1,500 to a typical family.
“Now you wouldn’t have quite seen that because you would have still just got your energy bill, it would have been very high and you’d have been: ‘Oh my gosh, what’s going on?’ but what you wouldn’t have realised, maybe, is that before that even happened, £1,500 had been lopped off, and the government had covered it.”
PA Media reports that the Cabinet Office spokesperson for the Liberal Democrats, Christine Jardine, said: “Sunak’s comments are woefully out of touch. Does he expect the public to give the Conservative party a pat on the back for crashing the economy and adding hundreds of pounds a month to people’s mortgages? He just does not get it.”
Some energy firms list credits from the government specifically as a line item in bills.
Earlier today Labour’s deputy leader, Angela Rayner, called today’s fall in inflation a “relief”, but said “we didn’t have to be here”. She told listeners of BBC Radio 4’s Today programme “The Tories crashed the economy, they haven’t provided us with an economy that has been growing, we’ve had a decade of low growth, low pay and high taxes. It’s the Tories that have put us in this situation.”
Updated
The UK government has said that it has not yet decided how it will set fare increases for rail travel in England for next year. My colleague Joe Middleton notes:
The Department for Transport (DfT) confirmed that any increase in rail fares next year would be below RPI. The Scottish and Welsh governments have not announced their rail fare plans for 2024. Fares in Northern Ireland are set by operator Translink.
Despite the DfT’s pledge, any significant rise in rail fares is likely to draw the ire of campaigners and rail users after a raft of delays and cancellations caused by a long-running dispute between the government and the unions over pay, jobs and conditions.
Adrian Ramsay, the Green party co-leader, has called on the government to freeze rail fares and reverse plans to close ticket offices to make train travel less expensive and more attractive so the country can meet its climate change targets.
He said: “If the UK is to meet its climate commitments then we need more people choosing trains over cars and planes, and we need more commuters opting for public transport and active travel to get to work.
“Making train travel more expensive, while closing rail ticket offices that support travellers to get the best deal, would underscore the government’s contempt for climate action and the travelling public.”
There has been some speculation on social media – and in the comments below, to be fair – about who from the world of politics would be going to the women’s football World Cup final on Sunday in Australia now that England have qualified for it. The DCMS has said it will be the culture secretary, Lucy Frazer, representing the government. PA Media quotes her saying: “This team has risen to every challenge and made the whole country proud.”
Updated
Sunak describes halving inflation by end of the year as 'ambitious target'
In an interview with ITV News, the prime minister, Rishi Sunak, has described the government’s aim to halve inflation by the end of 2023 as an “ambitious target”.
According to PA Media, he said: “I’m not complacent about this at all. When I set out that target, people said – that’s easy, he’s not ambitious enough – I don’t think it was, I think it’s an ambitious target.
“It might make people feel better in the short term to borrow lots of money to do lots of things but it would also mean that prices stay higher for longer and mortgage rates stay higher for longer and I’m not going to do that.”
When Sunak took over as prime minister from Liz Truss in October 2022, the CPI rate of inflation stood at 11.1%. He announced his plan to halve it early in January this year, when December’s rate stood at 10.5%, and after today’s figures it now stands at 6.8%. The Bank of England target is 2%. At the last general election the CPI rate was 1.3%.
Updated
I am aware this isn’t a football live blog – that is over here – but this is pretty much how my politics columns in Tweetdeck all look at the moment …
What a performance @Lionesses.
— Rishi Sunak (@RishiSunak) August 16, 2023
Just one more game to go...
Bring on Sunday 🏴 pic.twitter.com/cYyDIeLpgu
Come on!
— Keir Starmer (@Keir_Starmer) August 16, 2023
Phenomenal semi-final win from the @Lionesses.
World Cup Final here we come! #FIFAWWC https://t.co/wEzJdDxRLe
What an amazing result! So proud of the Lionesses and excited for Sunday morning 🏴 🏴 🏴 pic.twitter.com/K0YYrEohWb
— Ed Davey (@EdwardJDavey) August 16, 2023
What a win! Hugely deserved for all the @Lionesses
— Adrian Ramsay (@AdrianRamsay) August 16, 2023
And another great performance from Norfolk's @Lauren__Hemp and all the team.
Bring on the final!#Lionesses #AUSENG #FIFAWWC https://t.co/1uwlWgDUWu
I could be wrong, but it looks like of all the parties with an MP sitting in the House of Commons representing a constituency in England, Reclaim’s Laurence Fox is the only party leader not to have congratulated England’s women on reaching their first ever football World Cup final.
Summary of the day so far …
The prime minister, Rishi Sunak, said halving inflation was his number one priority, after figures showed the UK’s annual inflation rate fell sharply to 6.8% in July, from 7.9% in June. The drop in energy prices over the past year led to the smallest increase in the cost of living since February 2022. Sunak specifically listed “backing oil and gas in the North Sea” as one of the ways his government was tackling inflation.
Despite the large fall in the consumer prices index (CPI), the government’s preferred measure of inflation, analysts said the outlook was not improving rapidly enough to prevent further interest rate increases from the Bank of England. The drop in CPI means that for the first time since autumn 2021, prices are increasing less rapidly than wages, which rose by 8.2% year on year in the three months to June
The chancellor, Jeremy Hunt, has said inflation is “causing enormous pressure on families up and down the country” and “There is absolutely no room for complacency in the battle against inflation”. Inflation is still well above the Bank of England’s target of 2%, and prices continue to increase.
The deputy Labour leader, Angela Rayner, called the fall in inflation a “relief”, but said “we didn’t have to be here”, blaming the Tory government for crashing the economy and not providing growth.
Rayner also asserted her position within Keir Starmer’s shadow cabinet during her morning media appearances, declaring: “I will be deputy prime minister and I will be the deputy leader of the Labour party.”
The annual government expenditure and revenue Scotland (Gers) figures show that according to its calculations Scotland’s deficit has reduced to 9% of GDP. Last year’s Gers figures recorded Scotland deficit as 12.3% of GDP. The UK’s equivalent deficit figure was 5.2% of GDP. The figures reveal that North Sea revenue was at its highest-ever level at £9.4bn, reflecting high energy prices.
Scotland’s wellbeing economy secretary, Neil Gray, hailed the reduction. He also claimed a “full £1bn” of the deficit in Scotland was “the direct result of the UK government’s mismanagement of the public finances”. Scottish Labour finance spokesperson Michael Marra said: “Today’s statistics plainly show the economic benefit that Scots receive as part of the UK.”
The government has not yet decided how much rail fares in England will rise by next year, and faces “delicate difficult decisions”, Treasury minister John Glen said. Ministers announced on Tuesday that any increase will be below the rise in the retail prices index (RPI) measure of inflation for the 12 months to July, and come into effect in March rather than in January. The governments in Scotland and Wales are yet to announce their plans for next year’s rail fares.
The ONS has issued its monthly bulletin on house prices – saying they have increased by 1.7% in the 12 months to June, slowing marginally from 1.8% in May. Data on housing rental found that private rental prices paid by tenants in the UK rose by 5.3% in the 12 months to July 2023.
Patients with cancer symptoms could bypass their GP in the future and go straight for a scan, the health secretary, Steve Barclay, has suggested.
The boss of Britain’s biggest insurer, Aviva, has said there are “big opportunities” in expanding private health cover in the UK as the strain on the NHS grows and waiting lists for treatments hit record highs.
London councils are having to spend hundreds of thousands of pounds of taxpayers’ money repairing vandalised bollards and cameras in low-traffic neighbourhoods.
Charities have warned thousands of refugees and survivors of trafficking could find themselves homeless after a Home Office policy change.
Updated
Keen watchers of the Captain Tom Foundation saga might be interested to know that Patrick Butler has a report here that the charity is under renewed scrutiny.
The chief secretary to the Treasury, John Glen, has claimed that inflation is falling more slowly in the UK because “our inflation journey started a bit later and we’ll come out of it a bit later”.
In comments made on GB News, Glen said:
I think the truth is that our inflation journey started a bit later and we’ll come out of it a bit later. But today’s significant drop to the lowest rate of increase since February last year is welcome news. But I don’t want to say we’re complacent in government. We are on track to have inflation by the end of the year at 3%, and then on to 2%, which is the long-term target that we’ve always wanted the Bank of England to get back to.
We are in a situation where that means I have to make choices around not borrowing more, not increasing taxes, and not yielding to more requests for more spending. That is what’s important: sound public finances that underpin the foundations for growth in the economy.
Looking at inflation data across the G7 it isn’t entirely clear what Glen meant by “our inflation journey started a bit later”.
This chart issued by Joe Biden’s White House covers headline inflation rates, citing ONS figures as one of the sources, across the G7 from January 2021 to June 2023.
Due to differences in the way the figure is calculated, it is complicated to compare inflation figures across nations – the US Council of Economic Advisers described it as trying to compare apples to äpfel – but nevertheless it isn’t particularly noticeable that the UK was behind the inflation curve of other major economies as Glen appeared to be implying.
Updated
My colleague Phillip Inman has produced an analysis of today’s inflation figures, and two things caught my eye.
Firstly a fall in costs not being passed on to consumers.
Figures from the Office for National Statistics for July show that factory input prices fell by 3.3% in the year to July 2023, accelerating a steep decline in cost inflation that started at the beginning of the year and first went negative in May. July’s factory gate prices reflected some of this decline, falling by 0.8%. However, consumer prices for goods rose by 6.1%.
And secondly, this is crucially where people may feel absolutely no benefit from the headline rate of price increases beginning to dip down:
Analysts have struggled to explain why prices are still rocketing in food manufacturing, which is the largest employer in the UK industrial sector. Annual food inflation only slipped from 17.3% in June to 14.9% in July.
You can read more of Phillip Inman’s analysis here: Sticky price rises may force Bank of England to again deploy its only weapon
Irish minister: 'no significant new evidence' to warrant Omagh public inquiry in Ireland
Yesterday was the 25th anniversary of the Omagh bombing. Today an Irish minister has said there is currently no new evidence which would warrant holding a public inquiry in Ireland.
However, Peter Burke, minister for European affairs and defence, stressed that the Irish government would cooperate fully with the UK government in an attempt to ensure there are no unanswered questions left about the 1998 bombing.
In February 2023 the UK government agreed to hold an independent statutory inquiry into the attack, the single deadliest atrocity of the Northern Ireland Troubles.
PA Media notes that in 2021, a high court judge recommended the UK Government carry out an investigation, and urged the Irish Government to do likewise, after finding “plausible arguments” that there had been a “real prospect” of preventing the atrocity.
Burke, who attended a memorial service in the town at the weekend, told the BBC Good Morning Ulster programme: “We have had a number of previous investigations in this jurisdiction in relation to the events surrounding the Omagh bombing.
“Also we have had the Nally inquiry which was very detailed. The Nally inquiry found no significant new evidence which warranted the establishment of a public inquiry.
“That is our position at the moment. We have met with a number of survivors and victims, we are also awaiting the final publication of the terms of reference for the inquiry in the UK. We will be giving full cooperation with that inquiry. The Irish Government is very anxious to ensure that when that inquiry has concluded there are no unanswered questions.”
He added: “There have been a number of significant efforts and trials where we have tried to get convictions and hold to account those who perpetrated this heinous crime. The Irish Government wants to work hand in glove with the UK Government in relation to this issue and we will be cooperating fully with this inquiry.”
On Tuesday, a number of families who lost loved ones in the 1998 attack, gathered and laid flowers at the spot where the bomb exploded.
Speaking afterwards, Kevin Skelton, who lost his wife Philomena in the bombing, called on the Irish government to “step up to the plate” over Omagh. He suggested the UK inquiry would be “a waste of time” without the participation of Dublin.
The boss of Britain’s biggest insurer, Aviva, has said there are “big opportunities” in expanding private health cover in the UK as the strain on the NHS grows and waiting lists for treatments hit record highs.
The company attracted 170,000 new health insurance customers in the past year, signed up either directly or through their employer, and now has more than 1 million, making it the third-biggest player in the UK market after Bupa and Axa.
Amanda Blanc, its chief executive, said there had been “significant growth in demand for things like digital GP”, which offers customers swift access to an NHS-qualified GP through video consultation and text. Aviva’s sales of health insurance premiums increased by 58% to £86m in the six months to 30 June.
“You see there the combination of customers worried that they may not be able to get access to health treatments when they need them,” Blanc said. She added that people didn’t want to wait long periods of time and wanted access to mental health support and digital GPs.
A record 7.6 million people in England were waiting for NHS treatment in June, with two in five patients waiting more than 18 weeks to be seen. The Conservative party has been in government since 2010.
Read more of Julia Kollewe’s report here: ‘Big opportunities’ in expanding private health cover amid NHS strain, says Aviva boss
Scotland's deficit reduced to 9% of GDP
Inflation [See 9.07 BST] and house prices [See 9.47 BST] aren’t the only numbers out today. The annual government expenditure and revenue Scotland (Gers) figures, have been issued and they show that Scotland’s deficit has reduced to 9% of GDP.
Last year’s Gers figures recorded Scotland deficit as 12.3% of GDP. The UK’s equivalent deficit figure was 5.2% of GDP.
PA Media reports that the figures reveal that North Sea revenue was at its highest-ever level at £9.4bn, reflecting high energy prices.
The 2022-23 Government Expenditure and Revenue Scotland (GERS) statistics have been published.
— Scottish Government (@scotgov) August 16, 2023
Figures show that total revenue for Scotland has increased by 20.7% or £15 billion. This is compared with 11.3% for the UK as a whole.
Find out more at https://t.co/5S4A7Bo9sU pic.twitter.com/LHEoHfURWQ
The report said: “The results for this year’s publication reflect the impact of rising inflation, driven by high energy prices, through 2022-23. There has been significant spending on support for the cost of living for households and businesses, worth £4.5bn for Scotland in 2022-23. Spending on reserved debt interest payments, which are partly linked to inflation, has also increased sharply.”
It continued: “Rising energy prices, and the introduction of windfall taxes on the oil and gas industry, have also led to record increases in revenue from the North Sea, which is now at its highest ever level.”
Scotland’s wellbeing economy secretary, Neil Gray, hailed the reduction. He also claimed a “full £1bn” of the deficit in Scotland was “the direct result of the UK government’s mismanagement of the public finances”.
Gray said: “I am pleased that Scotland’s finances are improving at a faster rate than the UK as a whole, with revenue driven by Scotland’s progressive approach to income tax and our vibrant energy sector,” adding the Gers figures show how “the UK continues to benefit from Scotland’s natural wealth”.
Revenue growing faster than rUK
— Neil Gray MSP (@neilcgray) August 16, 2023
Notional deficit down substantially, faster than rUK
Scottish revenue per person higher than rUK
GERS figures encouraging & Scotland’s economy is moving in right direction, but with 41% revenue & 64% spending reserved we don’t have full control https://t.co/hVgLUXQWko
There was a somewhat different take on the numbers in Westminster. The Scottish secretary, Alister Jack, MP for Dumfries and Galloway said: “The Scottish government’s own figures show yet again how people in Scotland benefit hugely from being part of a strong United Kingdom.
“Scotland’s deficit is more than £19bn, even in a year of exceptional North Sea revenues. Without oil and gas, that figure soars to more than £28bn.
“People in Scotland benefit to the tune of £1,521 per person thanks to higher levels of public spending. As we face cost-of-living pressures and unprecedented global challenges it is clear Scotland is better off as part of a strong United Kingdom.”
Scottish Labour took a similar position, with finance spokesperson Michael Marra saying: “Today’s statistics plainly show the economic benefit that Scots receive as part of the UK and expose the SNP’s plans for independence as little more than a charter for austerity.
“With Scots individually benefiting to the tune of some £2,217 from higher spending in Scotland despite the larger negative balance in Scotland’s public finances, the potential harsh financial cost of leaving the union is laid bare for all to see.”
Tom Gordon, political editor at the Herald, notes:
For the first time since the oil slump of 2014/15, Scotland generated more tax revenue per head than the rest of the UK, based on a geographical share of the North Sea revenue going to the Treasury. The £696 extra per person compared to £498 less per person in 2021/22.
Updated
As I mentioned in my preamble, I suspect we will not be getting much political activity in England for the next couple of hours as MPs try to avoid looking like they weren’t patriotically supporting the Lionesses attempting to reach their first world cup final. That feeling may not, one suspects, be uniformly distributed across the whole of the UK.
We’re all rooting for you @Lionesses!
— The Labour Party (@UKLabour) August 16, 2023
It’s coming home 🏴#FIFAWWC pic.twitter.com/PFfPyxGW5v
John McTernan writes for the Guardian today, calling for Labour to stop being so cautious and make the election a referendum on net zero:
Or nearly everything. Labour currently lacks one vital quality: confidence. While heading for a victory bigger than Tony Blair’s landslide of 1997, the party appears to be too frightened to fight. Whenever the Tories do something profoundly amoral or un-British – such as telling refugees to “fuck off”, as their vice-chair, Lee Anderson, recently did – Labour seems scared of going on the attack.
Labour’s caution is understandable. Not only was the 2019 general election Labour’s worst result in terms of seats since 1935, it was also its third election defeat in just four years. Keir Starmer has never stood in a parliamentary election that Labour has won. That is scarring because defeat eats the soul.
But excessive caution kills hope. And the next general election has to be about hope for two reasons. First, it is a change election. The polls tell us one big thing: voters want to see the back of the current government.
But change has to be to something, not merely away from the present. Which leads to the second point: progressive parties win when they own the future and fairness. This is why Labour’s focus on “getting rid of the barnacles”, the Australian strategist Lynton Crosby’s term for ditching unpopular policies and positions, is becoming a drag on it.
Read more here: John McTernan – Stop being so cautious Labour: make the election a referendum on net zero
Government yet to decide how to calculate train fare rises for England
The government has not yet decided how much rail fares in England will rise by next year, and faces “delicate difficult decisions”, treasury minister John Glen said on the morning media round.
Ministers announced on Tuesday that any increase will be below the rise in the retail prices index (RPI) measure of inflation for the 12 months to July, and come into effect in March rather than in January.
Asked on Wednesday morning how much rail fares will rise by, PA Media reports Glen told Sky News: “We have said that we will keep it below inflation. Obviously I will be working closely with Mark Harper, the secretary of state, on what mechanism to use.
“But there are tough decisions now around how to use his budget in a way that suits commuters and suits the economy as a whole, delicate difficult decisions. We have not come to the end of that discussion yet.”
The governments in Scotland and Wales are yet to announce their plans for next year’s rail price increases. Consumer groups have called for them to be held frozen.
Hunt: inflation still 'causing enormous pressure on families up and down the country'
The chancellor, Jeremy Hunt, has said inflation is “causing enormous pressure on families up and down the country” in a glossy promo video issued by the Treasury this morning.
In the clip, Hunt says: “There is absolutely no room for complacency in the battle against inflation. While it is welcome that the headline rate of inflation has fallen, we now know that we have to stick to the plan to bring down inflation because that is causing enormous pressure on families up and down the country.”
The video also features Andy Haldane, the former chief economist at the Bank of England, attempting to explain government policy.
"There is no room for complacency."
— HM Treasury (@hmtreasury) August 16, 2023
Chancellor @Jeremy_Hunt & former @bankofengland Chief Economist Andy Haldane set out how the government plan to halve inflation this year & return to the Bank of England’s 2% target.
Watch to find out more 👇 pic.twitter.com/GwD28n9cFZ
Updated
The ONS has issued its monthly bulletin on house prices – saying they have increased by 1.7% in the 12 months to June, slowing marginally from 1.8% in May.
The average UK house price was £288,000 in June, £5,000 higher than 12 months ago but £5,000 below the recent peak in November last year. The ONS states that median annual pay for full-time employees in the UK was £33,000 for the tax year ending on 5 April 2022.
The ONS has also issued its data on housing rental, which finds that private rental prices paid by tenants in the UK rose by 5.3% in the 12 months to July 2023.
Graeme Wearden will no doubt have more about that on our business blog.
Not unexpectedly, Rishi Sunak, has been bullish this morning in his messaging around the rate of inflation falling.
In a series of posts to social media, the prime minister is quoted as saying:
Inflation has fallen down to 6.8% in two months. It’s inflation that eats into your savings. It’s inflation that makes your money go less far. Halving it is my number one priority. As prime minister I am determined to build a better economy and a better country for you, your children and your grandchildren. That starts with tackling inflation. And the news this morning shows that the plan is working. If we stick to the plan I’ve set out, we’ll get it done.
Sunak listed five measures which he claimed were tackling inflation, which is far higher than the government’s stated 2% target. He cited responsible borrowing, tackling the causes of inflation, helping with cost of living, being on the side of consumers and making the UK the best place to invest and grow.
JUST IN: Inflation has fallen down to 6.8% in two months.
— Rishi Sunak (@RishiSunak) August 16, 2023
It’s inflation that eats into your savings.
It’s inflation that makes your money go less far.
Halving it is my number one priority. This is how we are getting it done👇🧵 pic.twitter.com/soDtROUd6e
It was notable, given the suggestion that he is lukewarm on policies that deliver on the government’s 2050 net zero target, that he specifically listed “backing oil and gas in the North Sea” as one of the ways his government was tackling inflation.
Updated
If you wander down to your newsagent later today, you will see that most papers have lead with the revelation that three Bulgarians suspected of spying for Russia have been arrested and charged in the UK.
The Guardian: Bulgarians suspected of spying in
— George Mann (@sgfmann) August 15, 2023
UK for Russian security services #TomorrowsPapersToday pic.twitter.com/XN0a0E0y5W
The Times: ‘Russian spies’ accused of posing as journalists #TomorrowsPapersToday pic.twitter.com/Va841b4sej
— George Mann (@sgfmann) August 15, 2023
Daily Telegraph: Russia’s ‘Northolt spy ring’ arrested #TomorrowsPapersToday pic.twitter.com/VFnpglEngm
— George Mann (@sgfmann) August 15, 2023
Daily Mail - ‘SPIES’ WHO CAME IN FROM SUBURBIA #TomorrowsPapersToday pic.twitter.com/H0kCJO93Cf
— George Mann (@sgfmann) August 15, 2023
Daily Mirror: The spies next door #TomorrowsPapersToday pic.twitter.com/1a5hOrDl7k
— George Mann (@sgfmann) August 15, 2023
The main exception is the Daily Express, who today have picked Brexit, immigration, house prices, aren’t woke youngsters awful, pensions from their lucky front page roulette wheel.
Daily Express: BUMPER RISE IN STATE PENSION
— George Mann (@sgfmann) August 15, 2023
TO £11,469 #TomorrowsPapersToday pic.twitter.com/esRd0QDjB1
Rayner asserts she will remain deputy Labour leader and will be deputy PM
Political correspondent Aletha Adu reports:
Angela Rayner has asserted her position within Keir Starmer’s shadow cabinet, declaring “I will be deputy prime minister and I will be the deputy leader of the Labour party”, when asked if she had “lost her nerve” in fighting for issues including the two-child benefit cap and free school meals.
“We’re not going to have the funding in the first period to do that the Labour government wants to do. That doesn’t mean to say, however, that we wouldn’t do things differently and people wouldn’t see the difference like the energy bills”, she told BBC’s Radio 4 Today programme.
Defending the policy changes Starmer has made since becoming party leader, she repeated the party line that “the Tories have crashed the economy, when we took over the pandemic was in full swing, and we have the war in Ukraine, there is a very different context to where we are now. What we’re saying is our values remain exactly the same.”
Rejecting suggestions that many of Labour’s offerings are similar to that of the Conservatives, she added: “Our manifesto that we put forward wil be different to what the conservatives have offered and it will be changed for the country.”
On her relationship with Starmer, she reminded the public of her own mandate: “I often talk about it as an arranged marriage. We were both elected by the membership differently and independently. And we’ve worked constructively together. We need a Labour government and we need that change in this country.”
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Rayner: inflation fall is a 'relief' but 'we didn't have to be here'
The deputy Labour leader, Angela Rayner, has called the fall in inflation a “relief”, but said “we didn’t have to be here”, blaming the Tory government for crashing the economy and not providing growth.
She told BBC Radio 4’s Today programme: “Well, it’s a relief for a lot of people, but it, of course, still means that there’s a cost of living (crisis) and prices are still going up but at a slower rate.
“We’ve seen families see their bills going up significantly – over £300 a month – and it has been really difficult for people over the last couple of years, and we’ve had 13 years of economic chaos by the Conservatives.
“However, people have been put through hell and back and they’re still going to be facing this cost-of-living crisis for some time to come.”
She added: “The frustration for us in Labour is that we didn’t have to be here.
“The Tories crashed the economy, they haven’t provided us with an economy that has been growing, we’ve had a decade of low growth, low pay and high taxes.
“It’s the Tories that have put us in this situation and, while it’s a relief that we’re not going any higher than what we have, many families up and down the country at the moment are … finding things difficult. They can’t meet their monthly payments.”
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Boost for Sunak as inflation falls to lowest in 17 months
There was good news on the economy for Rishi Sunak as inflation slowed to its lowest for 17 months.
At 6.8% in July, however, it was still well above the Bank of England’s target of 2%.
The chancellor, Jeremy Hunt, said, PA Media reports, the easing of inflation showed “the decisive action we’ve taken to tackle inflation is working” but “we’re not at the finish line”.
“We must stick to our plan to halve inflation this year and get it back to the 2% target as soon as possible,” he added.
As a reminder, here are the five key priorities that Sunak announced for his government in January of this year:
We will halve inflation this year to ease the cost of living and give people financial security.
We will grow the economy, creating better-paid jobs and opportunity right across the country.
We will make sure our national debt is falling so that we can secure the future of public services.
NHS waiting lists will fall and people will get the care they need more quickly.
We will pass new laws to stop small boats, making sure that if you come to this country illegally, you are detained and swiftly removed.
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Welcome and opening summary
Good morning, and welcome to the politics live blog for Wednesday. Here are your headlines:
A big boost for Rishi Sunak as the UK’s annual inflation rate fell sharply to 6.8% in July, down from 7.9% in June, as the drop in energy prices over the past year led to the smallest increase in the cost of living since February 2022. Halving inflation is one of Sunak’s five policy planks.
It is still “NHS week” on the government’s media grid, and the latest suggestion is that patients with cancer symptoms could bypass their GP in the future and go straight for a scan. The health secretary, Steve Barclay, made the suggestion in the latest attempt by the government to suggest it is trying to get a grip on record NHS waiting lists in England.
Car culture war latest: London councils are having to spend hundreds of thousands of pounds of taxpayers’ money repairing vandalised bollards and cameras in low-traffic neighbourhoods.
Three Bulgarian nationals suspected of spying for Russia while living in the UK were arrested and charged yesterday.
Charities have warned thousands of refugees and survivors of trafficking could find themselves homeless after a Home Office policy change. Until last month, newly recognised refugees and survivors of trafficking had 28 days to find alternative accommodation after receiving a “notice to quit” before being evicted from Home Office accommodation they had lived in while officials were processing their claims – but this has now been reduced to a minimum of seven days.
There is very little in the diary today. I suspect most English politicians will be looking to maintain a dignified patriotic silence from 11am so it looks like they are watching the England–Australia world cup semi-final. Hopefully the right match, unlike Baranaby Joyce.
I’m Martin Belam, and I will be with you today. You can reach me at martin.belam@theguardian.com.
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