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BOM says tropical low causing flooding in north-west Queensland will weaken, head south-east

An isolated shower during one of the driest summers on record on the Downs.  (Supplied: Brett Cocks)

A tropical low that has brought widespread flooding in north-west Queensland is expected to head south, bringing rain to regions that have experienced one of the driest summers on record.

Records show in Dalby, on the Darling Downs, west of Brisbane, this summer was the third driest since 1900. 

Farmer Daniel Skerman said parts of the Darling Downs had received only "10 or 20" millimetres of rain "since the tap turned off in November".

"Everyone's probably just surprised we can go from being so dry from, you know, the drought from 2018/19, to so wet all of a sudden in 2021/22 and then back to being so dry again," he said.

Dalby farmer Daniel Skerman says it has been a hard year. (ABC News: David Chen)

That's in contrast to the state's north, where a heavy monsoon season has caused some communities to be isolated for months.

When it comes to statewide totals, the wet has won over the dry – December through February was the wettest summer since 2010/11, when Brisbane saw intense flooding.

Senior Meteorologist Laura Boekel said the "absence of rain-producing weather systems" meant the wet season wasn't felt in the capital, but a "really active monsoon and a few tropical lows" in the north drove up the totals.

"It's very much a mixed bag in Queensland as a whole," Ms Boekel said.

The dry summer comes after a wet one last year on the Downs.  (Supplied: Louis Willett)

Rain too late for crops

The rain headed south won't add up like it has in other parts of the state.

Senior Meteorologist Dean Narramore said as the tropical low heads south on Friday, it will weaken, bringing 25-50 millimetres to regions in its path.

"The only areas that are really missing out are the Channel Country … so anywhere east of around the Charleville, Roma area, and particularly around the Downs and south-east coast, all those areas [will get rain]," he said.

"We're not looking at the widespread flooding rain that we've seen in north-west Queensland … we're looking at a soaking rain, a welcome rain for many."

He said some areas could see up to "50 to 100mm" during the same period.

The wet weather is expected to hang around on Friday and Saturday before dissipating Sunday, turning to a few coastal showers on Monday and Tuesday.

In Dalby, Mr Skerman said the rain was coming too late for the dryland cotton crops that have "borne the brunt" of the dry summer, but crops planted earlier, such as sorghum and irrigated cotton faired "remarkably well".

But he wasn't put off by the dry.

"I think that's part and parcel of farming. We know it can rain; we know it can be dry," he said.

"There's not a great deal we can do now. It's just a matter of trying to get [the cotton] off in a timely fashion and do what we have to do to get ready for the next crop when it rains."

Daniel Skerman says farmers need to focus on the next crop.  (ABC News: David Chen)

However, there might not be much rain to look forward to: Ms Boekel from the Bureau of Meteorologist said a dry autumn was on the cards.

"The autumn outlook is looking to be below average for most of the state. So big parts of Queensland are seeing that signature. That's telling us that we are to expect below average rainfall conditions," she said.

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