The Bureau of Meteorology (BoM) has raised its El Nino prediction level, declaring on Tuesday there is now a 70 per cent chance of the weather event occurring in 2023.
It means the BoM has moved from an official position of ‘El Nino WATCH’ to ‘El Nino ALERT’ for winter and spring.
The move came as much of Australia was bracing for a drop in temperatures for the week ahead, along with rain.
But given El Nino is the warm phase of the weather cycle, where the climate is likely to be drier than usual in eastern Australia during winter and spring, it means these seasons overall won’t likely be as cold or wet as usual.
“While the models show it’s very likely the tropical Pacific Ocean temperatures will reach El Nino levels during winter, we have seen some movement in the atmosphere towards El Nino conditions,” BoM senior climatologist Catherine Ganter said.
“While our El Nino alert criteria have been met, these changes will need to strengthen and sustain themselves over a longer period for us to consider an El Nino event.
“The bureau’s long-range winter forecast is for drier and warmer conditions across almost all of Australia, and the climate conditions in the Pacific Ocean are already factored into our forecasts,” Ms Ganter said.
“The long-range forecast for winter also shows an increased chance of below-average rainfall for almost all of Australia and the move to El Nino alert does not change this forecast.”
The BoM had previously believed El Nino was only a 50 per cent chance for 2023.
Cooler weeks ahead
Winter is set to take hold around much of Australia this week, with cold fronts moving across the country and bringing some icy, wet weather.
Many Australians were eased into winter this year, but it seems the pleasant weather will be gone for at least the next couple of weeks.
On Monday, a powerful cold front started to pass over southern Western Australia, indicating what would come for other parts of Australia over the coming days.
Weatherzone said the cold front would move across the Great Australian Bight and on Wednesday, South Australia would cop the cold air.
Victoria, New South Wales and Tasmania can expect the cold air later in the week.
“Along with the drop in temperature, this system will also bring cloud cover, rain, storms and strong winds, making it feel even colder,” Weatherzone said.
“For example, residents of Adelaide can expect to feel three degrees cooler than what the thermometers indicate on Thursday.”
However, the cold weather won’t stop there. Over the weekend another cold front will arrive and bring more cold air, though this cold front should be weaker.
“This will truly give the feeling that winter has arrived in Australia,” Weatherzone said.
Wet weather takes hold
In addition to the cold front, it’s expected to be a wet week for most of Australia.
By Monday afternoon, south-west Queensland, western and central NSW, far north-western Victoria and parts of outback South Australia had seen significant amounts of rain.
Broken Hill had its wettest June day in 15 years, and Winnathee Station, a remote station near the NSW and South Australia border, experienced 50 millimetres of rainfall.
“To put that 50 millimetres total in perspective, it almost equalled the record for the wettest (entire month of) June in the nearby town of Tibooburra,” Weatherzone said.
The weather system is expected to deliver more rain inland for the eastern states over the coming days, however, the capitals will also see a bit of wet weather.
Outlook for the capitals
Tuesday’s rain in Sydney is expected to clear by Wednesday, with wet weather to return on Thursday and then again for the weekend. Although Friday is promising sunshine at this point, it will still only be 20°C in the NSW capital. Temperatures throughout the week will be in the low 20s.
In the ACT, clouds will possibly linger on Wednesday before the rain hits on Thursday. The rain should clear up in Canberra from Friday until Sunday, but morning frost is expected over the weekend and the maximum temperature will likely not get above 15°C.
Melbourne should brace for rain from Wednesday through to Friday. Up until Thursday, the temperature should be about 19°C, but come Friday, the mercury could drop to 15°C, and it could remain chilly for the foreseeable future.
Brisbane could have a shower or two on Sunday and Monday. The temperature will be about 23°C for the rest of the week with the exception of Friday, when it could reach 25°C.
Perth can expect rain through to Sunday with the temperature expected to range from 16 to 19°C for the rest of the week.
Adelaide will get rain on Wednesday with a temperate of 21°C. However, as showers continue on Thursday and Friday, the temperature will drop to 17 and then 16°C. The weekend is set to be sunny in Adelaide, before the rain returns on Monday, when the temperature will be below 20°C.
Showers are expected in Hobart through to Friday, with the maximum temperature dropping from 18°C on Thursday to 13°C on Friday. Even when showers ease on the weekend, it’s still expected to be about 15 to 17°C.
Darwin is set for a week of sunshine, with temperatures in the low 30s throughout the week.
