More rain and storms are expected today as a cold front sweeps across the nation's south-east.
Rain and thunderstorms are forecast across much of southern Queensland, New South Wales, Victoria, and Tasmania today.
The latest band of stormy weather will sweep from west to east and clear the east coast Saturday morning.
But that will not be the end.
A low is expected to form on Saturday, bringing yet another round of rain from southern Queensland through to the mid New South Wales coast, with significant rainfall predicted for the Sydney metro area, the Hunter Valley and the Central Coast.
The rain and storms should finally leave the coast by Monday.
Warnings in place
All the rain has got to go somewhere.
Major flooding has been ongoing on many inland rivers over the past few weeks and the recent rain is adding to the already brimming situation.
"There are still warnings current for places like the Namoi, the Macquarie, the Bogan, the Lachlan, down towards the Murray River as well," Bureau of Meteorology forecaster Jonathan How said.
"It is all very slow-moving river rises, which continue to be quite high."
The BOM has issued multiple flood watches, including major flooding, for the following systems:
- Gwydir, Namoi, Macquarie, Lachlan, Belubula, Bogan
- Wollombri Brook, Goulburn, Hunter
- Macquarie, Darling, Culgoa, Lachlan
Keep up with the latest rainfall numbers, flood levels and flood watches and weather warnings at the BOM website.
What is the flood risk for Sydney?
The rivers have already started rising and over the next few days more rain is expected in the Sydney region.
"Currently for the Hawkesbury-Nepean areas we are expecting minor to moderate flooding, for the most part," Mr How said.
River levels are currently expected to remain below those reached in the devastating floods earlier in the year.
"The previous rainfall events we saw across the Hawkesbury-Nepean earlier this summer and last summer were widespread triple-digit figures," Mr How said.
"We saw 200, 300, 400 millimetres over a number of days.
"This time we aren't seeing those high rainfall totals, just because we aren't in the peak of the summer period."
The next few systems are expected to move off relatively quickly but any stalls could increase the rainfall totals.
"At this stage, we're not anticipating major flood levels, but of course we are monitoring the situation across the weekend," Mr How said.
He urged residents to keep up with the warnings and follow the advice of the SES.
What's next?
Atmospheric conditions remain moist over the east.
Moisture has been streaming down from both sides of the country, creating a huge pool over eastern Australia.
This moisture is thanks to the negative Indian Ocean Dipole encouraging warm waters in the north-west and the third La Niña in a row, bringing warm waters to the north-east.
"One of the main factors driving this rain is that the moisture that's sitting over the east of the country has been there for quite a while," Mr How said.
"So every time we have a cold front, or a system or a trough coming through, it taps into that moisture, which is still streaming down.
"So that's why we are seeing back-to-back rainfall events."
Thankfully these systems are moving through quickly without the presence of a blocking high, which many will remember was the signature of the prolonged rain events earlier in the year.
But today's cold front will be tapping into that moisture.
"That will merge with this area of storms through inland parts of NSW and push that rain to the east coast," Mr How said.
Tomorrow an upper-level trough is forecast to combine with the pool of moisture, within which a low is expected to form.
Before you ask, no it does not meet the criteria for an East Coast Low.
This system will bring yet more rain and storms from southern Queensland down through New South Wales over the weekend.
"This one's quite fast-moving," Mr How said.
"The next high-pressure system does come through quite quickly and we are looking at dry conditions on Monday and Tuesday."
Turbulent temperatures
Meanwhile, the build-up is underway in the north, with parts of the Cape and the Top End currently experiencing low to severe heatwave conditions.
But with all the cloud around, temperatures in the south and east are expected to broadly be two to five degrees below average, with some areas under thicker cloud getting down to as much as 14C less than the October average.
Depressingly, the cold is expected to hang around into next week.
So rug up and keep an eye on the warnings this weekend.
And make the most of the sun Monday and Tuesday because Mr How warned another round of rain was expected mid next week.
