Boise State vs. Utah State: Keys For A Broncos Win
First game without Avalos
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Jeanty is back for Boise
WEEK 12: Boise State Broncos (5-5, 4-2 MW) vs. Utah State Aggies (5-5, 3-3 MW)
WHEN: Saturday, November 18th – 5:00 PM MT/4:00 PM PT
WHERE: Maverik Stadium, Logan, UT
WEATHER: Upper 40’s, Chance of Showers
TV: CBS Sports Network
STREAM: FuboTV — Get a free trial
RADIO: The Boise State broadcast can be found on KBOI 670 AM / KTIK 93.1 FM in the Boise area. The broadcast will also be on SiriusXM Channel 381. The Utah State broadcast can be found on 1280 The Zone (KZNS) in Salt Lake City.
SERIES RECORD: Boise State leads the all-time series 19-3, including a 42-23 victory last year in Boise. Utah State’s last win was in Logan in 2015, 52-26.
LAST GAME: Boise State beat New Mexico 42-14, while Utah State beat Nevada 41-24
ODDS: Boise State -3
SP+ PROJECTION: Boise State by 7.7
FEI PROJECTION: Boise State by 4.4
PARKER FLEMING PROJECTION: Boise State with a 52.33 win probability (30.12-29.35)
Spencer Danielson with his first Friday media scrum. Names Taylen Green as a game captain and goes on to praise his QB. Says RB Ashton Jeanty will play Saturday at Utah State. QB Maddux Madsen is scheduled for surgery Tuesday. #BoiseState @BroncoSportsFB pic.twitter.com/t4n8baJCww
— 𝐌𝐢𝐤𝐞 𝐏𝐫𝐚𝐭𝐞𝐫 (@MikeFPrater) November 17, 2023
Boise State comes into this week’s game in a rare situation after Andy Avalos was fired last Sunday. This was the first time a Boise State Football head coach was fired since joining the FBS level in 1996. With the reigns of the Broncos being given to Defensive Coordinator Spencer Danielson for the remainder of the season, there is still an outside shot for the Broncos to make the Mountain West title game, but they need some help. At the very least, both Boise State and Utah State are looking to get bowl-eligible with their 6th win of the season, with Boise State’s road much tougher, having their final game against Air Force and Utah State ending against New Mexico.
Keys to Victory
Control the Air:
USU QBs Cooper Legas and McCae Hillstead have split action over the season, and each has shown to do well through the air, combining for 2,639 yards and 28 TDs to 15 INTs. Aggie will be going with Legas this weekend.
This, of course, is problematic as the Broncos are currently ranked 126th against the pass this season. With Danielson in complete control of the defense now, we will see if that changes how effective the Broncos play against the pass and if they can generate more pressure to keep the Aggies from getting comfortable in the pocket.
On the flip side, Boise State is relying entirely on QB Taylen Green as Maddux Madsen will be out for the “foreseeable future.” Green is more known for his mobility but has plenty of arm strength to hit deep throws if the Aggie defense begins to creep up to stop the run. This year has also seen a significant uptick in check-down passes to running backs out of the backfield, which has been devastating for opposing defenses as Ashton Jeanty and George Holani are two of the biggest weapons on the offense. It is still unclear if Jeanty will be active on Saturday, but George Holani looks like himself, averaging 9.8 yards per catch.
Keep the Ball to Yourself:
Last week was only the third time this season that the Broncos have been on the plus side of turnovers, and the second time they have not turned the ball over in a game. The Broncos were able to establish a rhythm offensively and stay on the field to rack up almost 500 yards of total offense against the Lobos. Granted, Utah State is a better team than New Mexico, but they still have struggled on defense. Their run defense currently ranks 100th in that nation, and the defense as a whole is 96th overall. They have also struggled with turnovers on offense, giving the ball away 19 times on the season.
Block Out The Noise:
This generally means stadium noise when you are playing on the road, but in this instance, it has more to do with the turmoil surrounding the team over the last two weeks. With Eric McAlister leaving the team and the firing of the head coach, there have been a lot of distractions off the field and in the locker room. Game time will be what the Broncos need to refocus and get back to the main goal, going 1-0 this week.
Prediction:
This game is the most difficult to get a feel for this year. It could be 52-13 for either side or 34-32 for either side. We could see the Broncos come out fired up and dominate the Aggies, or we could see them distracted and collapse. With the attitude presented by the program this week, my guess would be fired up, but I don’t think they will be able to just walk over Utah State. They will cover the spread to win and become bowl-eligible.
Boise State 35, Utah State 30
