Is this the one contest Labour is set to lose on election night – not to an imploded Conservative party, but rather to the Greens? It would be easy, but ultimately facile, to write off Bristol Central as an outlier. It is a trendy, bohemian enclave of the south-west, where locals once rioted over the opening of a new Tesco, and which polling suggests is the most pro-migrant constituency in Britain.
And there are certainly ingredients here that are particularly favourable to a left-of-Labour message: estimates from 2021 suggested most residents are under 35, about half are private renters and about a quarter are born in another country. But with research suggesting that millennials are the first generation not to move rightwards with age, the number of private renters in England and Wales doubling this century, and Britain becoming ever more diverse, Bristol Central could simply be a window to the near future.
Earlier this week, I met the Greens’ co-leader, Carla Denyer, in the Canteen – a modish venue where young Bristolians hack at keyboards in the day and party at night – and she was understandably chipper. In the May local elections, the Greens became the biggest party on the council, and in Bristol Central they won every seat. Some polling suggests Denyer – who moved here from the home counties 15 years ago to work in the renewables sector – could scoop the seat. That would be quite the prize: the incumbent Labour MP for Bristol West – which is being largely subsumed by the new Bristol Central seat due to boundary changes – is the shadow cabinet minister Thangam Debbonaire, who alas had no interest in speaking to me when approached.
Denyer is clear about her party’s appeal. Without a challenge from its left, Labour will “continue U-turning on things like their climate investment pledge, on their pledge to working people, on supporting renters’ rights, public ownership, public services and so on”. These are issues, she says, that routinely come up on the doorstep.
And for the first time, the Greens are running a near-full parliamentary slate in England and Wales: as well as giving almost all voters the chance to vote for the party, Denyer hopes that it will help with media exposure, too. Alas, it should be noted that the Reform party still enjoys outsized attention, despite having just 10 elected councillors to the Greens’ 809.
But is there a sense that the Greens have a ceiling, and still have something of a middle-class, hippy, twee, sandal-wearing reputation that will deter Labour voters? Denyer takes this with good grace, arguing it is an out-of-date stereotype.
The Greens have “grown and diversified massively over the last few years”, she says. Perhaps, though, their growing national success poses a challenge to their political definition. In Bristol, a diverse, young population may be receptive to a leftwing alternative; but is it really the Greens’ reputation for radical policies that is driving their advance in many traditionally Tory rural communities? “You’d be surprised how many retired owner-occupiers in Suffolk support rent controls, not because it benefits them, but because their children or grandchildren are struggling to save for a deposit in a city like Bristol.”
Nonetheless, it seems hard not to conclude this straddling of very different demographics is deterring the Greens from positioning themselves as an out-and-out leftist political party. Speaking to local people, the challenge and opportunity for the Greens is apparent. One young Labour party member bemoans voting for Keir Starmer for leader. “He’s sort of totally betrayed everything he stood on to start with,” he tells me. Despite this, he will vote for Labour. With the electoral system unlikely to reward smaller parties with enough seats to make a difference, he believes the best hope is somehow to “persuade and push Starmer into good politics” on issues such as Gaza, proportional representation, tax and the NHS.
Labour’s near-inevitable landslide, of course, makes that unlikely, but underlines how some will opt for the main opposition party based on forlorn hope, rather than take a punt on the Greens. A woman with dyed black-and-white hair and a hoodie to match eloquently sums up the national mood of a country about to deliver Labour a landslide victory, with an opposition leader with the lowest personal ratings to secure an election win since records began. Excited for the Tory rout – “everyone’s gonna be kicking!” – she walks away yelling: “Yeah, vote Labour! But fuck Keir Starmer, man. He’s just an Action Man.”
Two young students have a red line – “It depends what Labour’s stance is on Palestine, if you ask me,” says one – but neither are enthused by the election, and declare they need to do their homework. Here remains a Green challenge: gaining visibility so they appear on the radar of disillusioned voters in the first place.
It is possible to see a scenario in which the Greens chalk up their best ever national showing – surpassing the 1.1m votes they secured in 2015 – but fail to win Bristol Central, and even lose their sole seat in Brighton Pavilion, where Caroline Lucas is standing down.
The question is whether they will be able to mop up the disillusionment that will inevitably come with a Starmer government. In Bristol Central, for example, they would be in pole position if they lose with a strong showing in second place. With Labour purging its left flank, the Greens may offer a life raft – that is, if those believing in a radical alternative to Toryism don’t want to sink.
Owen Jones is a Guardian columnist
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• This article was amended on 3 June 2024 to clarify that Bristol Central is a new seat created for 2024 due to boundary changes, and largely replaces the Bristol West seat that was represented by Thangam Debbonaire.
