They took their time about it, but Iran’s oil workers seem finally to have joined the anti-regime protests. Videos on social media platforms reportedly show marches and demonstrations in Abadan and Assaluyeh, vital hubs in the country’s petroleum and petrochemicals sector.
Such unrest would represent a significant widening of the uprising against the Islamic Republic: It will give protesters elsewhere in the country a much-needed fillip and draw more international attention to their cause. The government will likely meet it with swift and bloody retaliation.
The turn in the south comes as the regime in Tehran has intensified a crackdown against nationwide protests, which have been sustained mainly by women for nearly a month. (More recently, schoolgirls have joined the demonstrations.)
The spark for the protests came from the death of a young woman, Mahsa Amini, in the custody of the so-called morality police, but the kindling was provided by decades of misrule by the theocratic elite. After starting out with slogans against the Islamic Republic’s restrictive dress codes, the women quickly switched to demands for the end of the regime. Cries of “Death to the dictator,” a reference to Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, are now routinely heard in the demonstrations and appear in graffiti across the country.
With the regime ratcheting up repression — police have been shooting live rounds into the demonstrations, and the death toll is reckoned to be around 200 — the protesters could use a boost from other powerful constituencies within the country.
And constituencies don’t come any more powerful than the workers of the oil and gas sector, the mainstay of the Iranian economy. The government has been anxious about the growing organization of oil workers in recent years, and rattled by a series of strikes in the refineries.
Another disruption in the oil sector would come at a particularly bad time. The regime is hoping to capitalize on Western sanctions against Russian oil sales to meet demand in Europe — if, that is, it can get the Europeans to persuade the Biden administration to ease sanctions on Iranian supplies. A strike will hamper those hopes, and more repressive measures will dampen any European enthusiasm to advocate on the regime’s behalf.
Until now, much of the discontent among oil workers has been over pay and working conditions, and the unions have used strikes to extract some salary hikes. Unions in other sectors have been inspired to launch industrial action. A nationwide strike by teachers at the start of the year brought educators into the streets in more than 50 cities.
When the women’s protests began last month, there were mere murmurs of support from some unions. But revulsion over the regime’s repressive measures against the protesters has led to more full-throated backing. In videos posted on Twitter, workers reportedly marching in Assaluyeh can be heard chanting, “Don’t be afraid! We’re all together,” and “Death to the dictator!”
Videos reportedly from Abadan show workers leaving their stations in apparent solidarity with the protesters.
Abadan is home to one of Iran’s oldest oil refineries; Assaluyeh hosts facilities that process natural gas from the giant South Pars field. Respectively in the hydrocarbon-rich provinces of Khuzestan and Bushehr, the two cities are a long way from Tehran. But the workers’ slogans will have been heard by the regime’s leaders, who need no reminding that strikes by oil workers were decisive in the success of the 1979 revolution.
The Shah, Mohammad Reza Pahlavi, may have regretted his reluctance to use his security forces against the oil workers. Khamenei will not be so restrained. He will likely move swiftly to forestall sectorwide strikes.
Until now, the regime has relied primarily on the police to deal with the women’s protests. Having already overcome any qualms he may have had in inflicting violence against women and girls, Khamenei will feel no compunction about unleashing the more ferocious Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and the Basij militia on the workers.
He has used them to brutal effect in putting down previous uprisings, notably the Green Movement of 2009 and the anti-regime protests 10 years later. More than 1,000 people were killed in the 2019 crackdown, and tens of thousands were arrested.
But the inspiration provided by the women protesters seems to have helped the workers to overcome any fear of a reprise in repression. Their actions may, in turn, inspire other groups to join the fight. Teachers associations, indignant about the use of violence against student protesters in campuses, have signaled their solidarity.
Undoubtedly there will be more blood. But Khamenei may find that isn’t enough to quell this uprising.
