As it stands today, it’s set. Georgia, Michigan, TCU and USC in the playoff, in that order. Clean and neat, no controversy but just one caveat: A final burst of chaos is always possible.
As long as Michigan handles Purdue Saturday night in the Big Ten championship game, it can avoid a rematch with No. 1 Georgia in the national semifinals. And if Michigan wins and Georgia loses to LSU in the SEC championship game, the Wolverines would be No. 1. But there’s one nagging possibility they probably don’t want to see, no matter how juicy it might be.
Uh-oh-io.
Could Ohio State, buried just five days ago by Michigan, be unearthed already? Could a rematch happen as soon as the semifinals on New Year’s Eve? It could, and it’s not even necessarily a longshot. Apparently, it takes more to eliminate the Buckeyes than simply dumping 45 points and 530 yards on them and sticking a flag in their field.
When the playoff committee unveiled its latest rankings Tuesday night, Georgia (12-0), Michigan (12-0), Texas Christian (12-0) and USC (11-1) took their assigned seats. But sitting at No. 5, nursing bruises after the 45-23 shellacking by Michigan, was Ohio State (11-1), followed by Alabama (10-2). For the Buckeyes, the path to the playoff suddenly opens if USC and/or TCU loses in their conference title games, and neither outcome is farfetched.
The best-case scenario for Jim Harbaugh’s Wolverines starts with beating Purdue, even though they almost assuredly get in even with a loss. They’d prefer to avoid Georgia in the semis, based on the Bulldogs’ 34-11 romp over UM last year. And I assume they’d rather play TCU or USC than OSU. Yes, they just stomped their rival, but the Buckeyes would be fresh with rabid revenge. It’s hard enough to beat an elite team once; twice in five weeks is asking a lot.
CFP committee chairman Boo Corrigan wouldn’t say how close Georgia and Michigan were for the No. 1 seed, but the Wolverines have been consistently (and understandably) downgraded for their weak non-conference schedule. Georgia has four top-25 victories, while Michigan has two.
“We didn’t see any reason to move Georgia out of the top spot,” Corrigan said. “We had a lot of conversations specifically about Georgia and Michigan’s big win on Saturday. Georgia certainly did nothing against Georgia Tech (a 37-14 victory) to look at that game as a watershed moment.”
Already-crazy season
I doubt anybody outside the Big Ten craves to see two Big Ten teams in the playoff. Just like nobody outside the SEC craves to see two SEC teams. LSU (9-3) seemingly killed that chance, although you-know-who still lurks at No. 6. If TCU and USC lose, Alabama (10-2) could be back in the mix. All it takes is a little more craziness in an already-crazy season, and it’s plausible.
The Trojans play Utah for the Pac-12 championship Friday night in Las Vegas. USC is a slender three-point favorite and lost to Utah 43-42 in October. USC has the Heisman favorite in quarterback Caleb Williams and an offensive coaching guru in Lincoln Riley. The Trojans have scored 40-plus points in 10 of 12 games but they don’t play much defense. The No. 14 Utes (9-3) also average 40 points and are the defending conference champs. If Utah wins, it would barely be an upset, and USC would be out.
Then on Saturday, a few hours before Michigan and Purdue (8-4) collide in Indianapolis, the Big 12 championship game begins at noon in Arlington, Texas. TCU also is a slim 2.5-point favorite over Kansas State (9-3). The Horned Frogs have a potent offense and needed every bit of it to beat Kansas State 38-28 in October, rallying from a 28-10 deficit. They’ve played on the edge all season, nipping Baylor 29-28 on a final-play field goal and winning five games by one score. But if they capture their conference, they’re in. If they don’t win, they might be out, for reasons that are hotly debatable.
This isn’t Big Ten bias because the Big Ten hasn’t had much to brag about this season, but I think the Buckeyes are better than the Horned Frogs. The question is, does an 11-1 OSU that didn’t reach its title game deserve the nod over 12-1 TCU? That would punish TCU for playing an extra game, which doesn’t seem fair. It also would punish TCU for losing a rematch against Kansas State, which would be fair if it’s a one-sided contest. Corrigan made it clear conference championship games won’t be overlooked, and that sounds like a 12-1 TCU is no lock to stay ahead of the Buckeyes.
The Horned Frogs have five victories over teams ranked at the time, but four of the five now have at least four losses. OSU only has two wins against then-ranked opponents, Penn State and Notre Dame, but Notre Dame (8-4) has slipped.
In a helpful-neighbor kind of way, Michigan’s dominance could boost OSU. The Wolverines have two lopsided top-10 wins – Penn State and Ohio State – outscoring them by a cumulative 86-40. A 22-point home loss never looks good, but when it comes against a top-two team, it doesn’t look quite as awful.
Lobbying for two spots
Corrigan downplayed the margin of OSU’s loss to UM because the game was tight into the fourth quarter. If the Horned Frogs fall, my guess is the committee would go for the flash and put OSU in at No. 4. And the only people ecstatic about that would be Ryan Day and the Buckeyes, who could get a shot at winning the rivalry’s biggest game barely a month after losing the biggest game. Another giddy person would be Big Ten commissioner Kevin Warren, who already is lobbying for two spots in the four-team field.
Shortly after Michigan won in Columbus by outscoring the Buckeyes 28-3 in the second half, Warren said this to ESPN: “Clearly, Michigan and Ohio State are two of the best four teams in the country, and I think (that game) proved it. Great football game. Epic football game.”
A tad short of epic, I’d say. The important thing to remember – and no one ever does – is the committee is trying to seed the four best teams, not necessarily the most-deserving teams based on record. I know this seems obvious, but teams that are dominant almost every Saturday are viewed more favorably than those that survive close contests.
And trust me, when the 12-team playoff is instituted as soon as 2024, there’d be just as much angry blubbering about the final two or three spots. More teams played their way out this season than played their way in. LSU blew its finale at lowly Texas A&M 38-23. Clemson was stunned at home by South Carolina. Tennessee lost its quarterback and got thumped at South Carolina, 63-38.
Maybe all the favorites win this weekend and raucous debates are averted. Even the two safest teams, Michigan and Georgia, should have motivation. The Bulldogs are 17-point favorites against LSU and could lose their No. 1 seed with a loss. Michigan is a 16.5-point favorite against Purdue and could drop to third or fourth with a loss.
Harbaugh acknowledges the dangers of looking ahead, and looking behind, and hammers the point with his team.
“You’re riding this emotional high and (sometimes) you don’t come back and take care of business,” Harbaugh said. “But it’s the first rule of champions. It’s not even a principle, it’s a rule: Do not let up."
If this regular season revealed anything, it’s that someone always lets up or lets down. If it happens Friday night or Saturday, Bama and the Buckeyes will be lurking. Michigan is safe, but might feel a bit more comfortable without either of those two in the field.
