They sweat a bit, fretted a bit, then got the news they craved. In a sense, the Wolverines are getting a do-over, and are determined to make the most of it.
Back to Indianapolis they go, back to the NCAA Tournament they go. Michigan landed an 11 seed in the South region and will face sixth-seeded Colorado State on Thursday in the same arena, Gainbridge Fieldhouse, where their angst began. As it turns out, the Wolverines’ dispiriting 74-69 loss to Indiana in the Big Ten tournament didn’t derail them. In fact, with a modest 17-14 record but solid metrics (34th in NET rankings), Michigan landed in the 68-team field relatively comfortably, avoiding the First Four play-in games in Dayton.
Part of it was the strength of the Big Ten, with nine teams making the Tournament. Two of them — Indiana (39 NET) and Rutgers (77 NET) — were sent to Dayton, so the selection committee saw something more in the Wolverines. At times, we’ve all seen something more. And then in their next outing, we often see something less.
For 10 straight games, Michigan has alternated wins and losses. I suppose that makes them alternately dangerous and dubious. Can the Wolverines, as inconsistent as anybody, actually make a run? I wouldn’t bank on it, but they’re surely an intriguing 11 seed. Their bracket isn’t the toughest, with 3 seed Tennessee and 2 seed Villanova. In Juwan Howard’s first NCAA Tournament as coach last season, the Wolverines reached the regional final where they lost to UCLA, 51-49.
Over the course of the season, they beat Iowa and Ohio State on the road, and Purdue and Michigan State at home. They also lost to Minnesota and Central Florida. The up-down pattern crystalized last Thursday against the Hoosiers, when the Wolverines raced to a 17-point second-half lead, surrendered a 28-4 run and fell apart.
They fell hard, but not necessarily far. Conference tournaments don’t carry nearly as much weight as an entire body of work. Ask Iowa, which beat Purdue in the Big Ten title game and landed a 5 seed, while the Boilermakers got a 3. And ask Michigan, which rolled at Indiana 80-62 in January, an outcome likely not lost on the committee.
It’s part of a pattern certainly not lost on the Wolverines.
“We’re going to be a very scary team in March, that’s all I can say,” guard DeVante’ Jones said Sunday night after the bracket was revealed. “It’s something we talked about after losing to Indiana. We should’ve won that game and we let it slip. We basically said all we need is a chance, all we need is an opportunity, and we’re gonna make the most of it.”
Jones, a transfer from Coastal Carolina who has never played in the NCAA Tournament, admitted he was extremely nervous during the selection show, and tried not to cry when the results were shown. Hunter Dickinson was more confident (as he generally is). Howard knew Michigan’s credentials stacked up well, and said he didn’t waste time poring over the bracketologists’ work.
“Super excited for our team, great where we’ve been seeded, and I thought it was well-deserved,” Howard said. “I love our team from Day One. There were challenges we’ve faced, learning how to play together, learning a new system. … We’ve been battle-tested.”
They’ll be shot-tested by Colorado State (25-5), which finished second in the Mountain West behind Boise State and makes its first Tournament appearance since 2013. The Rams beat Boise State twice and have an impressive victory over St. Mary’s. They ranked 28th in the NET, which earned them the solid seed, and they’re a guard-oriented team that likes to shoot the 3.
They’re 13th in the country in field-goal percentage at 48.5, let by junior guard David Roddy, who averages 19.4 points and shoots 45% on 3s. The Rams aren’t particularly big, which might be a break for Michigan’s 7-foot Dickinson.
He leads the Wolverines in scoring (18.3) but was shut down by Indiana’s physical defense. The second half of that game burned the Wolverines, and now perhaps spurs them. Dickinson joked that they can’t escape Indianapolis, having spent a month there in the COVID bubble last spring, where the Big Ten and NCAA Tournaments were held.
Now the Wolverines get another shot, this time with fans in the stands.
“Wherever we go, somehow we find ourselves in Indianapolis,” Dickinson said with a laugh. “One good thing about the NCAA Tournament, you’re not playing against other Big Ten teams at least for a couple games. It’ll be fun playing somebody new. … We’re not the team everyone thought we were gonna be at the start of the season, but we still have that talent that everybody saw, that raw, natural talent that really makes us a dangerous team in the tournament.”
The Wolverines were preseason Big Ten favorites and finished a disappointing eighth, but Dickinson remains a matchup problem for opponents. Michigan has experienced a little bit of everything, from Howard’s five-game suspension to COVID postponements that back-loaded the schedule. As it turns out, the Wolverines played the fifth-toughest schedule in the country. Interestingly, the team with the toughest is Tennessee (25-7), which would be next if the Volunteers beat Longwood and Michigan beats Colorado State.
Count on nothing, expect anything this time of year. Colorado State is the better seed but Michigan is given a slightly better chance. You want to know how tight it is for the local teams? Michigan is a 1.5-point favorite, and No. seed Michigan State is a 1.5-point favorite against Davidson in the West region.
Are the Wolverines legitimately dangerous? Same as a bunch of other teams. But the difference between “dangerous” and “in danger” is as slim as ever.
