ALLEN PARK, Mich. — It’s going to be Aidan Hutchinson, obviously. The Michigan mauling machine still has Buckeye scraps between his teeth and makes perfect sense for the Lions at No. 2.
Wait, it’s going to be Kayvon Thibodeaux, obviously. The Oregon star with freakish physical traits makes perfect sense for a team historically allergic to sacking the quarterback.
Wait, it’s going to be a cornerback, obviously. (Oops, previous regime).
The Lions almost certainly will take Hutchinson or Thibodeaux with the second pick in the first round of the NFL Draft on Thursday night. All the mock drafts say that, and I’m not mocking the mocks. In a sudden turn the past week, Jacksonville now seems intent on grabbing Georgia end Travon Walker at No. 1. That would allow the Lions to take one of the highest-rated pass rushers, which means it’s virtually impossible to screw up at No. 2.
In fact, this is the easy part for GM Brad Holmes and coach Dan Campbell in what’s predicted to be a wildly unpredictable draft. The real intrigue comes later, at No. 32, the final pick of the first round acquired in the Matthew Stafford trade.
Ideal fit
There’s no mystery about Hutchinson, considered the safe football-character pick. Thibodeaux is perceived as the unpolished talent with greater risk. I doubt either perception is totally accurate, but I’d take Hutchinson at No. 2, and no, not because he went to Dearborn Divine Child and played at Michigan. Actually, if Holmes overemphasizes the Michigan connection, he’s sending the wrong message. This isn’t about selling jerseys and hometown hope. It’s about production and passion, and Hutchinson plays with a maniacal edge.
He seems to be the embodiment of Campbell’s ideal player, an energetic leader who feasts on football. He has the lineage — father Chris was an All-American at Michigan — and the relentlessness. If the Jaguars pass on him, as most predict, I suspect Campbell will leap to the phone to take him.
Except Holmes might grab his arm for a moment. Thibodeaux has exceptional skills, including a devastating first step on the pass rush, and fits Holmes’ hunger for a game-changer. At one time, he was expected to be the No. 1 overall pick, but played through an ankle injury last season, and some said he gave inconsistent effort and relied more on physical traits than refined techniques.
Holmes had a fine first draft as Lions GM, and his top choice last year was another Oregon behemoth in gifted offensive tackle Penei Sewell. Going back to his days in the Rams’ front office, Holmes doesn’t seem easily wowed by hype or affected by others’ assessments. There aren’t many negative perceptions about Hutchinson and Thibodeaux, but I’ve summarized them here for your convenience: Hutchinson’s arms are too short and his upside a bit low; Thibodeaux’s motor is too slow and his personality too eclectic.
The truth is, they might be more alike than different. Hutchinson is bigger (6-7, 260) but his arms aren’t long, and that matters more than you’d logically think. Thibodeaux has similar measurables (6-4, 254) with longer arms but has wide interests beyond football, which scares some football people. He started his own cryptocurrency and struck other business deals. Nothing wrong with that, unless you’re of the mind that an NFL franchise player must be singularly focused.
Thibodeaux spoke like a seasoned soul when asked in an NFL Network interview what he’d bring to a team.
“The best player off the board,” he said. “I’m very prideful in being the best. I’m very strategic and very intentional in everything I do. I’m gonna come into the locker room, I’m gonna buy into the coach, I’m gonna be a guy who upholds the culture, and we’re gonna bring guys with us and try to go to that promised land.”
He regularly uses the “culture” line, perhaps to alter the narrative that he’s more individualistic than team-oriented, fair or not. He did have 19 sacks in three seasons at Oregon. Hutchinson had 18.5 at Michigan and recorded 14 in a spectacular senior season. If experts want to brand him a “try-hard” guy, that’s OK, as long as they don’t think that’s all he is. Pro Football Focus gave him a 94.7 pass-rush grade, the second-highest mark (behind Ohio State’s Chase Young) since it began charting the number. Thibodeaux wasn’t far behind at 91.5.
“I’m very confident in my ability despite how long I am, or whatever they say,” Hutchinson said. “I think my greatest attributes are my instincts. I’m a very intuitive player. … This Michigan team, we rose from the ashes and we did something that many thought was impossible. I’m hoping where I go we can do the same.”
Defense first
The Lions have done the impossible for decades, steadfastly dodging Super Bowl contention. With a defense that ranked 24th and a pass rush that was 30th, they need massive upgrades. They also could use one of the many excellent receivers available, and if they got one at No. 32, they’d be happy.
Or how about this option: Trade 32 and 34 (second pick of the second round) for another choice in the first round and go pluck from the overflowing Georgia defensive player cart. That’s where Holmes’ dealing acumen will be tested, because the 32nd pick could be coveted by teams that like the fifth-year option attached to first-rounders.
That’ll be a hot, later debate for the Lions. At the top of the draft, there’s no debate between offense and defense. It’s between Hutchinson and Thibodeaux, and I assume they’ve made their choice by now. Unless Walker doesn’t go No. 1, or a wild card such as Florida State’s Jermaine Johnson jumps up. (Just covering all the possibilities!) Either way, they’ll get a premier prospect at a decent price to upgrade one of the worst defenses in the league.
It’s interesting that most draft experts have Hutchinson going first or second, and peg Thibodeaux between second and seventh. He’s the one that’s hard to figure, in a draft that’s hard to figure. There are no first-round guaranteed quarterbacks. There are few guarantees at all, starting with the Jaguars, who were goofy enough to give Urban Meyer a shot at head coach. GM Trent Baalke is presumed to prefer pure athleticism over other traits, but nothing would be a surprise.
We think we know what Holmes and Campbell prefer. This draft should tell us a lot about their actual vision. Hutchinson looks like the ideal blend, and after all the craziness and conjecture, the Lions might end up with the guy they’ve wanted all along.
