“I would think twice. Having been led up to the top of the hill and then back down all the way again. Twice now,” says one Boris Johnson backer, Michael Fabricant, about the idea of supporting him again.
Fabricant was one of Johnson’s many supporters among Tory MPs who were taken aback by the announcement at 9pm on Sunday that he was not standing to be Tory leader.
Nadhim Zahawi, the Cabinet Office minister, even had an opinion piece published in the Telegraph that had to be swiftly deleted as news emerged of Johnson’s withdrawal. Further pieces from other supporters – including Priti Patel – were still being written by aides at the time.
Johnson’s plaintive statement blaming Rishi Sunak and Penny Mordaunt for shunning a deal with him, and holding out the prospect of a political return at the “right time”, was found to be bitterly disappointing for many of those who had spent the weekend advocating for him.
As Johnson scrambled back from his Caribbean break, by Saturday morning a small campaign team of dedicated volunteers had assembled, and the numbers of supporters were being collected by the former chief whip Chris Heaton-Harris.
From Friday, allies were briefing that the 100 nominations threshold would be reached “easily”, and they spent hours texting journalists that all his backers were “verified” and ready to be submitted.
Meanwhile, volunteers were writing op-eds for his backers and creating social media memes. His MP backers were all over the airwaves, with Jacob Rees-Mogg saying Johnson was “clearly” going to stand.
However, there was an ominous silence from some in his innermost circle.
Although his most fervent supporters could not see them, the signs were there over the weekend. Johnson had only gained eight new public backers since Friday. He was ringing round colleagues begging them to back him, holding out the prospect of sticking to the pledge of spending 3% of national income on defence and claiming that Sunak would also be implicated by the privileges committee inquiry into Partygate.
Briefings that Johnson was seeking a unity pact first with Sunak and then with Mordaunt appeared to show a lack of confidence that he could make it alone.
He addressed a Zoom meeting of his MPs early on Sunday morning with characteristic enthusiasm, but had still not formally launched a campaign.
While he was largely building up support from the most rightwing and fringe members of the party, it was happening on a much smaller scale than in his last leadership bid.
A source working on the Johnson campaign said they had been “on the back foot” since the leadership contest began in earnest on Thursday, given that Johnson had had to scramble home from a remote location abroad.
Reluctant MPs were citing concerns about the privileges committee’s investigation into whether Johnson misled MPs, and scepticism that he would be able to unite the parliamentary party.
His allies now believe Johnson will await the result of the privileges committee inquiry before making a decision on his future in parliament and the feasibility of another comeback.
In the meantime, his lifestyle, part-funded by Tory donors such as the Bamfords, who hosted his wedding party this summer, looks set to continue, with more photos from the beach and appearances on the international speakers’ circuit expected.
It seems unlikely he will be a major thorn in Sunak’s side in parliament, at least for the moment.
