As the spring training camps open and the excitement builds for the upcoming baseball season, it's a great time to reflect on the best pitches of last season. In this annual 'Best Pitches' series, we will analyze the arsenals of starting pitchers who threw 135 or more innings in 2023 and determine the game's best - and worst - offerings. Our evaluation will be based on each pitch's ability to generate swings and misses and manage contact. So, let's dive into the changeups!
The changeup, once again, proved to be the most effective core pitch in Major League Baseball (MLB) in 2023. With an average Adjusted Contact Score of 84.6, it surpassed splitters which had an average score of 84.9. Among the qualifiers, changeups boasted a swing-and-miss rate of 14.1%, ranking third behind splitters (17.1%) and sliders (14.9%). Out of the 44 pitchers who met the pitch and batted ball requirements for grading, our focus will be on the five pitchers who received either an 'A' or 'A+' grade for their changeups.
Leading the pack with an 'A+' grade is former San Diego Padres pitcher Blake Snell. Snell's secondary pitches were nothing short of exceptional last season, with his changeup being particularly electrifying. It had a pitch-specific whiff rate that was over two full standard deviations higher than average. Additionally, Snell's changeup displayed exceptional contact suppression, tying for the fifth-best among qualifiers. Rather than relying on a specific ground ball tendency, Snell succeeded in muffling all types of contact. His Adjusted Contact Scores for line drives (81) and grounders (41) ranked second among qualifiers. With an average-range spin rate of 1796 rpm and above-average vertical movement (6.8 inches), Snell's changeup showcased a well-rounded performance.
While Snell stood alone with an 'A+' grade, Kyle Hendricks of the Chicago Cubs received an 'A' grade for his changeup. This is not the first time Hendricks has excelled with this pitch, as he previously earned 'A' grades in 2016, 2018, and 2020. In 2023, Hendricks' Adjusted Contact Score tied for the second-best among qualifiers, and his pitch-specific whiff rate ranked ninth. Unlike Snell, Hendricks threw his changeup at a much slower pace, with an average velocity of 80.7 mph, second lowest among qualifiers. What stood out about Hendricks' changeup was his ability to induce pop-ups, with a pop-up rate of 10.0%. He also displayed exceptional control over fly ball authority, with his Adjusted Fly Ball Contact Score ranking fifth among qualifiers. Interestingly, Hendricks relied heavily on his changeup, with a usage rate of 41.1%, second only to Logan Webb of the San Francisco Giants among qualifiers.
Moving on to the other 'A' grade recipients, we have Brayan Bello of the Boston Red Sox, Tanner Bibee of the Cleveland Guardians, and Corbin Burnes of the Milwaukee Brewers (now with the Baltimore Orioles). Bello and Bibee were both rookies and did not qualify for the ERA title, while Burnes reached the qualification threshold and improved from a 'B' grade in 2022. All three pitchers excelled in managing contact, with Adjusted Contact Scores of 49 (Burnes), 58 (Bibee), and 70 (Bello) respectively. Among them, Bello demonstrated the best ability to miss bats with a 20.9% whiff rate, ranking third among qualifiers. Bello also had the highest usage rate for his changeup at 23.3% among the three pitchers. Burnes and Bibee showcased relatively high pitch-specific spin rates (2049 rpm and 2048 rpm, respectively), while Bello leaned towards a lower spin rate of 1771 rpm. Each pitcher's changeup possessed unique movement characteristics, with Burnes being average in both horizontal and vertical movement, Bibee excelling in vertical movement (7.9 inches), and Bello displaying significant horizontal movement (9.9 inches).
On the verge of receiving an 'A' grade were 12 pitchers with 'B+' grades, including Patrick Sandoval (Los Angeles Angels), Tyler Anderson (Los Angeles Angels), Merrill Kelly (Arizona Diamondbacks), J.P. France (Houston Astros), Bailey Ober (Minnesota Twins), Jesus Luzardo (Miami Marlins), Michael Lorenzen (Detroit Tigers/Philadelphia Phillies), Martin Perez (Texas Rangers), Lucas Giolito (Chicago White Sox/Los Angeles Angels/Cleveland Guardians), Zac Gallen (Arizona Diamondbacks), Freddy Peralta (Milwaukee Brewers), and Ryne Nelson (Arizona Diamondbacks). France, Ober, Peralta, and Nelson were exceptional at managing contact, while Sandoval, Anderson, Kelly, Luzardo, Giolito, and Gallen showcased excellent abilities to induce swings and misses. Lorenzen and Perez displayed above-average skills in both contact management and generating swings and misses.
On the flip side, Kyle Freeland of the Colorado Rockies had the unfortunate distinction of possessing the worst changeup among the qualifiers in 2023. With an 'F' grade, Freeland's pitch-specific Adjusted Contact Score was by far the worst among qualifiers, over four standard deviations worse than average. Additionally, he only managed a paltry 5.8% whiff rate, which ranked third worst among qualifiers.
It's worth mentioning the pitchers who received 'A' grades for their changeups in 2022 but did not meet the qualification requirements in 2023 due to injuries. They include Max Fried (Atlanta Braves), Shane McClanahan (Tampa Bay Rays), Jeffrey Springs (Tampa Bay Rays), Brandon Woodruff (Milwaukee Brewers), and Luis Garcia (Houston Astros). It's unfortunate that fans couldn't witness their continued excellence with the changeup in the 2023 season.
In conclusion, the best changeups of 2023 came in various forms and sizes, showcasing a range of velocities, spin rates, and movement profiles. From Blake Snell's dominant and electric changeup to Kyle Hendricks' slow and crafty offering, these pitchers displayed their mastery over the art of the changeup. However, it's important to note that these evaluations are specific to the 2023 season, and pitching performances can evolve over time. As we eagerly await the upcoming season, it will be intriguing to see how these pitchers continue to refine their pitches and showcase their skills on the mound.
[Table: List of all 2023 qualifiers' changeup grades]
