Tony Blair’s government pressed ahead with plans to grant unrestricted access to the UK for workers from eastern Europe despite mounting concerns among senior ministers, according to newly-released official files.
Papers released at the National Archives in Kew, west London, have revealed how deputy prime minister John Prescott and foreign secretary Jack Straw both urged delay, warning of a surge in immigration unless some controls were put in place.
The move was widely seen as having contributed to a major increase in immigration in the years that followed. With successive governments struggling to get the numbers back under control, it is feared to have helped fuel the anti-EU sentiment which culminated in the 2016 Brexit vote.
The Home Office had predicted the impact of allowing free access to the UK jobs market for eight states which joined the EU in 2004 would lead to a net increase of no more than 13,000 workers a year.
Then-home secretary David Blunkett argued that the economy needed the “flexibility and productivity of migrant labour” if it was to continue to prosper.
However, within weeks, the files show the numbers arriving were far outstripping the estimates, with one official warning they could see 50,000-60,000 arrivals in the first year.
A senior No 10 adviser on immigration said they faced an “elephant trap” and advised ministers to “err on the side of publishing less rather than more” when it came to releasing official data.
Mr Straw later admitted that the failure to put in place transitional controls – like most other EU nations – had been a “spectacular mistake” which had far-reaching consequences.
The papers show that Mr Straw called for a rethink three months before the “A8” countries – including the Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland and Slovakia – joined the EU on 1 May 2004.
It had been widely expected that other member states would also allow unrestricted immigration from that date, but Mr Straw warned others were opting to impose transition periods.
In a letter to Mr Blair, he wrote: “If we do not think this through now, I believe we could be faced with a very difficult situation in early May, and could then be forced to take urgent action to suspend the concessions, in the least propitious of circumstances.
“In particular, whilst some EU member states were never going to give this concession, other EU member states who we thought would be joining us have begun to peel away.
“France, Germany, Spain, Austria, Belgium, Finland, Greece and Luxembourg are all imposing transition periods of at least two years. Portugal is likely to follow suit.
“Italy is undecided. Sweden, Netherlands and Denmark – who were with us – have all announced the introduction of work and/or residence permits for those wishing to avail themselves of the concession.”
He was backed by Mr Prescott, who said he was “extremely concerned” about the pressures on social housing from a sudden influx of new migrants.
However Mr Blunkett, backed by work and pensions secretary Andrew Smith and the Treasury, insisted they should stick with the plan.
He said that they would be tightening the regulations to stop migrants travelling to the UK simply to claim benefits but rejected calls for a work permit scheme as “not only expensive and bureaucratic but I believe ineffective”.
In a handwritten note, Mr Blair expressed doubts, adding: “Are we sure this does the trick? I don’t want to have to return to it.
“I am not sure we shouldn’t have a work permits approach also. Why not? It gives us an extra string to our bow.”
