Only barely past halfway complete, the 2023-24 season is another loss-filled endeavor for the Blackhawks with some rookie bright spots and some lessons learned that ultimately will yield another top-five draft pick.
As the two-year anniversary of general manager Kyle Davidson’s scorched-earth rebuild declaration approaches in March, now is a decent time to look ahead at what the future might bring.
Over time, the Hawks will transition from rebuilding to ascending. Here’s a rough estimate of how the timeline of that process might shake out:
Rest of 2023-24 season
One area in which Davidson’s approach already has changed will become evident during the lead-up to the March 8 trade deadline.
The Hawks will be more cautious and less trigger-happy trading away pending free agents and other veteran players of value than they have been the last two years. They’ll keep enough guys to maintain a fleshed-out roster through the last month of the season.
Connor Bedard’s return from injury and play down the stretch also will be relevant, as will Lukas Reichel’s and/or Arvid Soderblom’s improvement — or lack thereof — in the second half. The Hawks could look to sign 2022 first-rounder Frank Nazar and give him a brief NHL introduction after Michigan’s season ends, too.
Summer 2024
The 2024 draft will be another crucial day for the Hawks’ rebuild as they make another very high pick — one of seven selections in the first three rounds. Their already deep, diverse prospect pool will get even more loaded.
The Hawks also figure to be somewhat active in free agency, re-signing the current players they determine to be worth keeping and bringing in outside free agents. Reichel and Alex Vlasic will need new contracts, and their cap hits will be notable. Decisions will be made about younger NHL guys such as Taylor Raddysh, Cole Guttman, Joey Anderson and Isaak Phillips.
The Hawks will shy away from taking on any large long-term contracts, but they’ll need to spend money somehow. They have only $35.3 million in salary currently committed for 2024-25, when the cap will be $87.5 million and the floor roughly $65 million.
Davidson will be willing to pay above market value to convince some free agents to accept one- or two-year contracts, like he did last summer with Nick Foligno and Corey Perry. He also could explore the trade market, but, again, he won’t want to take on contracts with more than two years remaining.
The Hawks also will have a conversation about their captaincy moving forward. The most likely options involve Foligno serving as captain until 2026 before Bedard takes over, no one serving as captain until 2025 before Bedard takes over or Bedard taking over in 2024.
2024-25 season
The Hawks’ youth movement will be in full swing. Their average age almost certainly will be among the league’s lowest.
Bedard, Reichel, Vlasic and Kevin Kor-chinski will be expected to show signs of progress in their second full NHL seasons. Nazar, Colton Dach, Landon Slaggert, Wyatt Kaiser, Nolan Allan, Ethan Del Mastro and the Hawks’ 2024 top pick could be in their first full NHL seasons. Oliver Moore, Paul Ludwinski, Gavin Hayes, Ryan Greene and Drew Commesso also could make their NHL debuts, especially later in the season.
That inexperience will lead to some inconsistency and frustration, but this will be a valuable season for the Hawks — their last season without significant pressure — to figure out exactly what they have in each prospect. There will be lots of discussion about and modeling of possible future depth charts.
Summer 2025
This marks the point the Hawks likely will get more aggressive with their spending. They could bring in higher-profile stars to fill holes and supplement their young core, begin making tough decisions about which prospects aren’t panning out and set substantial expectations for progress in the win column.
Bedard, Korchinski, Seth Jones and Connor Murphy are the only current Hawks signed beyond the summer of 2025, so Davidson will have a clean slate upon which to assemble his preferred mix of developing prospects and proven talent.
The draft will remain important — the Hawks already own seven picks in the first four rounds of 2025, and that number likely will increase.
But their July activity, for the first time, might be even more important. Looking around the league, Leon Draisaitl, Mitch Marner, Mikko Rantanen, Brock Boeser, Victor Hedman, Aaron Ekblad, Igor Shesterkin and Juuse Saros are slated to headline an excellent free-agent class.
2025-26 season
Most of the Hawks’ current prospects should be in or near the NHL by 2025-26 — or will have flamed out, as inevitably happens to some. That includes guys like Moore, Commesso and Sam Rinzel, who seem relatively far away right now.
Some of the Hawks’ 2023 picks — and certainly their 2024 and 2025 picks — will be keeping the pipeline well-stocked and promising, but the rebuild conveyor belt will be truly churning at this point.
The odds of a playoff berth might still be below 50% — barring an inspiring, larger-than-expected leap forward by the team collectively — but the Hawks would like to at least be on the bubble and out of the basement.
Summer 2026 and beyond
The 2026 offseason will mark a crucial moment as Bedard and Korchinski hit restricted free agency. Their second contracts could be quite sizable if they maintain their current development paces. Coach Luke Richardson’s contract also is set to expire in 2026.
This is when the Hawks will become a cap-ceiling team and take advantage of the fact the cap ceiling is expected to rise significantly over the next few years. It could be near $100 million at this point.
A lot can — and will — change during the next 2½ years, but 2026-27 should be the season in which the Hawks establish themselves as playoff contenders. They’ll be five years into Davidson’s reign, by which point the team’s talent, upside, expectations and pressure should be increasing in unison.
