The set of Assembly elections now scheduled in five States – Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, Chhattisgarh, Telangana, and Mizoram - will see the BJP test drive at least some of the ideas and issues that it feels will loom large in 2024.
While the BJP has not released a full list of candidates for all States, the four lists for Madhya Pradesh and the first list of candidates for Rajasthan have seen the party field several MPs, mostly from the Lower House, for the Assembly elections.
In Madhya Pradesh, three Union Ministers – Narendra Singh Tomar, Faggan Singh Kulaste, and Prahlad Singh Patel along with four Lok Sabha MPs, namely Rakesh Singh, Ganesh Singh, Reeti Pathak, and Uday Pratap Singh, have been fielded. In Rajasthan, Lok Sabha MPs Rajyavardhan Singh Rathore, Diya Kumari, Baba Balaknath, Bhagirath Choudhary, Devji Patel and Narendra Kumar, as well as Rajya Sabha MP Kirodi Lal Meena have been given tickets.
The large number of Lok Sabha MPs being fielded is seen, not only as a way of cutting anti-incumbency against the Shivraj Singh Chouhan government in Madhya Pradesh, but also as a strategy to create a cohort of State leaders, and effecting a generational change in both Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh, away from Mr. Chouhan and former Rajasthan Chief Minister Vasundhara Raje. The success of this strategy, or its lack thereof, will go a long way in determining how much of a say both these leaders and indeed the State unit will have in ticket distribution during the 2024 Lok Sabha election.
The Bihar government’s caste survey, and the BJP’s response to it, will also play out in these Assembly elections, especially since the three Hindi-speaking States of Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh and Rajasthan have significant presence of OBCs in the population. Rajasthan Chief Minister Ashok Gehlot announcing that he would be undertaking a survey if re-elected, and the Congress Working Committee’s push for a nationwide caste census are challenges that the BJP will have to deal with in these elections, and perhaps hone a strategy to deal with in 2024 as well.
Also read: Seven MPs among 41 candidates in BJP’s first list for Rajasthan
In Telangana, the BJP removed Bandi Sanjay Kumar as the State unit chief, giving the position to Union Minister G. Kishen Reddy, with it being seen as a sign that the party wanted to accommodate the aspirations of those who had recently joined and were at odds with Mr. Kumar. The appointment of Etala Rajendra, a turncoat from the Bharatha Rashtra Samithi (BRS) as campaign committee chair, is a test of whether new blood will make a difference or the BJP should revert to its old flock of dyed-in-the-wool Sangh Parivar recruits.
In 2018, the BJP had lost the three big States of Chhattisgarh, Rajasthan, and Madhya Pradesh. That result was read as a signal from the rural heartland that farmers were distressed and were “voting with their ploughs”. This prompted the BJP to launch the Pradhan Mantri Kisan Samman Nidhi (PMKSN), an income support programme for farmers. The set of elections later this year, therefore, will be important not just for governments in these five States, but for how the 2024 contest will shape up.
