Chris Burniske, a prominent voice in the crypto space and partner at Placeholder VC, dismissed the idea of a Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) "supercycle," labeling it a “collective delusion.”
What Happened: In a detailed thread on X on Wednesday, Burniske warned investors against the belief that Bitcoin’s bull markets will eliminate future bear markets, despite new factors such as Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and potential sovereign adoption.
"Every bull, people come up with reasons for why we're going stupid high or won't have a bear," Burniske wrote, reflecting on over a decade of market cycles in crypto.
"While the ETFs and potential sovereign buying could mean we don't have as brutal a bear in the future for BTC, ‘supercycle’ is without fail a collective delusion,” he added.
Burniske highlighted that the current bull market, which he dates back to November 2022, has propelled Bitcoin to close to $100,000—a more than sixfold increase since the bottom of the last cycle.
Other assets like Ethereum (CRYPTO: ETH) and Solana (CRYPTO: SOL) have also seen exponential gains, up over 4x and 30x, respectively, during the same period.
However, he cautioned investors against late entries during such bullish periods, emphasizing that the more attention crypto receives, the worse the timing often is for new buyers.
"The painful reality is as crypto prices go up, that draws more attention, and that attention converts into buying flows," he explained.
Burniske pointed out that the best entry points are typically when few are paying attention, as was the case two years ago.
Burniske also criticized the notion that structural changes in the market, such as institutional involvement or sovereign interest, could end the boom-and-bust nature of crypto cycles.
"Anything that goes 100x quickly is prone to at least an 80-90% crash at some point, structurally—too many people sitting on profit," he noted.
While acknowledging that factors like ETFs could soften future bear markets, Burniske made it clear that crashes are part of the natural evolution of crypto markets.
He also questioned recent chatter about a shortened cycle, calling it "bear market PTSD talking."
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Why It Matters: For those new to crypto, Burniske advised a simple portfolio allocation focused on quality assets such as Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana (50/25/25%).
He cautioned against speculative investments in smaller assets without adequate research and suggested a disciplined approach to profit-taking.
"From current entry prices, if they 2x, encourage them to take half out at that point, leaving their initial cost allocated," he suggested, highlighting the importance of preparing for volatility.
As for those banking on outsized returns in the current market, Burniske warned, "No one is getting rich or crazy multiples from these prices… but they're gonna see people making good money, so it's hard to resist."
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Image: Wikimedia Commons
