Bitcoin continues to trade under $100,000 to start the New Year after retreating from its record high near $108,300 in mid-December. Despite the recent pullback, analysts expect bitcoin to clear $200,000 this year as 2024 set the stage for accelerating gains. Cryptocurrency prices continued climbing Friday. Elsewhere, BlackRock's iShares Bitcoin Trust on Thursday saw record outflows.
H.C. Wainwright on Thursday wrote that it expects bitcoin to reach $225,000 per coin by the end of 2025. That's up from its prior forecast for $145,000, The Fly reported.
The firm cited the historical price cycles of bitcoin, recent price action, and broad expectations for a more favorable regulatory environment under the incoming Trump administration as drivers for the digital assets industry in 2025. The availability of spot exchange traded fund products in the U.S., as well as accelerating institutional and corporate adoption should also accelerate price gains.
Wainwright wrote that 2024 set the stage for a "significant bull market" for bitcoin and crypto miners this year. The firm estimates the total market cap for bitcoin miners will exceed $100 billion in 2025, with pure-plays to outperform. Mining stocks are seen once again outperforming bitcoin in 2025 as fundamentals improve for the group.
Wainwright lists Mara Holdings, Riot Platforms and CleanSpark as its pure-play miners. The firm included Core Scientific, Bitdeer, TeraWulf, Hut 8, Iren, Bit Digital and Hive Digital as hybrid miners.
Meanwhile, reaching the $225,000 milestone would imply a total market cap for the currency of $4.5 trillion. That represents about 25% of the total market cap of gold.
Elsewhere, the iShares Bitcoin Trust on Thursday recorded $332 million in outflows, according to Farside Investors, marking its largest outflows since its January 2024 launch. Thursday's outflows surpassed the previous record of $188.7 milion from Dec. 24. The BlackRock ETF has seen five days of outflows since December, which ranged from $23.5 million to $332.5 million. Still, IBIT leads the spot bitcoin ETFs with $36.92 billion in inflows since luanch.
Bitcoin Stock Action
Bitcoin rose back above $98,000 Friday afternoon as it continues to climb from its late December low near $92,000. The price of bitcoin rallied almost 119% in 2024 and hit an all-time high around $108,300 on Dec. 17 before pulling back.
A majority of the crypto stocks mentioned in the research note have also pulled back in recent weeks as bitcoin retreated from its recent all-time high.
BTDR is trading near its record high of 26.24 from Dec. 24 and holding above its key moving averages.
IShares Bitcoin Trust and most of the spot bitcoin ETFs are holding up. More than a few — including IBIT, FBTC, GBTC, BITB, and BTCW — are poised for rebounds. If the ETFs score a rebound from their 50-day moving averages they will enter buy zones.
Investing platform Coinbase has also pulled back below its 50-day line.
Shares of the crypto stocks surged Thursday, with gains ranging from about 3% to 7%. Cryptocurrency stocks and ETFs surged on Friday, with MARA, BTDR and CleanSpark popping more than 14%. RIOT stock on Friday rallied 18% to reclaim its 50-day line. Shares had tested their 200-day moving average after some several weeks of tight trading.
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