From the intensifying battle over weight-loss drugs to the rise of AI to the uncertainty about President-elect Donald Trump's second term, biotech stocks won't be boring in 2025.
Biotech may even be as exciting as the once-in-decades boom when Covid treatments pushed companies like Moderna into Wall Street's limelight. But biotech stocks have struggled since then, with 2024 capping a third year in the market doldrums.
Biotech's trajectory could change this year, experts say. The 43rd annual J.P. Morgan Healthcare Conference could offer the first proof point. The conference, the biggest in the biotech industry, begins Jan. 13 in San Francisco. Companies hope to push the limits of science, aided by the rise of artificial intelligence, to treat conditions like obesity and move the needle on genetic diseases.
Biotech stocks could become more attractive with interest rates coming down and inflation being curbed, says industry veteran John Maraganore, who served as founding chief executive of Alnylam Pharmaceuticals.
And some players have risen above the slump — outperformers like Exelixis, Corcept Therapeutics and ADMA Biologics. Exelixis sells cancer treatments, an area that garners a lot of investor attention. Corcept and ADMA play in the lesser-known rare and immune system spaces, respectively. Still, the three stocks top the biotech industry group in terms of their ratings. Exelixis and Corcept stocks rocketed by double digits in 2024, while ADMA tacked on a bullish 279% gain, rising out of dollar-stock status.
"We could be entering a fantastically exciting time for investors who are interested in biotech as a sector," Maraganore, now executive chairman of City Therapeutics, told Investor's Business Daily. "Let's see how it goes. But I think it could be an exciting year, no doubt about it."
Biotech Stocks Eye Weight-Loss Drugs Space
Much of the excitement is focused on a fast-growing trend: obesity drugs. That space is dominated by two Big Pharma names: Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly.
But room exists for biotech stocks to make waves. A host of companies have entered the fray. They include two smaller names, Viking Therapeutics and Structure Therapeutics, as well as bigger biotechs like Amgen, Regeneron Pharmaceuticals and Biohaven. They're emerging along with several members of the old pharma guard: Pfizer, Merck and Roche.
That's because the weight-loss drugs market is already massive — and growing. Novo and Lilly have struggled to keep pace with demand, which a February 2024 forecast from JPMorgan projected at roughly $100 billion in sales by 2030.
Analysts polled by FactSet expect Wegovy and Zepbound, the two obesity drug leaders, to generate a combined $44.5 billion in sales in 2029, the latest year for which there are forecasts. That leaves a wide gap in the $100 billion JPMorgan estimate where biotech stocks can make their mark.
"There are these next-generation obesity targets that will continue to capture the imagination of Wall Street," BridgeBio Pharma CEO Neil Kumar told IBD. "There's always going to be this massive admiration of these monster markets."
Top-Rated Biotech Stocks
| Biotech | Ticker | RS Rating | EPS Rating | Key Product/Market | Projected 2024 Revenue |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Exelixis | 92 | 89 | Cabometyx/cancer | $2.2 billion | |
| Corcept Therapeutics | 95 | 85 | Korlym/hormonal disorder | $691.8 million | |
| ADMA Biologics | 97 | 81 | Asceniv/immune disorders | $442.4 million | |
| Ligand Pharmaceuticals | 87 | 91 | Royalties | $163.4 million | |
| United Therapeutics | 88 | 90 | Tyvaso/hypertension | $2.9 billion | |
Data as of Jan. 8 |
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Differentiating Weight-Loss Drugs
Next-generation obesity treatments aim to surpass the successes of Wegovy and Zepbound.
That could mean treatments that lead to larger cuts in weight. Some treatments could be more tolerable, easing up on the gastrointestinal side effects commonly tied to drugs that mimic the GLP-1 hormone. They could also be easier to administer. Amgen is hoping its drug MariTide will be a monthly shot unlike the current weekly injections. Oral drugs could soon enter the market.
Then there's the focus on an important issue: the quality of the weight lost. Experts agree that it's better to maintain lean muscle mass. But obesity drugs — like other methods of losing weight — lead to the loss of both fat and muscle. Regeneron, Biohaven, Scholar Rock and other companies are eyeing improvements in this area.
Reimbursement and access will also be key, says Structure CEO Raymond Stevens. In 2025, the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services will decide whether to reimburse patients for the cost of their weight-loss drugs. Today, only some Medicare patients receive reimbursement for their obesity drugs — namely, those who have diabetes or are at risk of having a heart attack or stroke.
Biotech Acquisitions: The Lifeblood Of Pharma
One thing is certain: Big Pharma isn't shy about buying into the obesity space — or any biotech space. Mergers and acquisitions will likely remain a major trend.
Roche bought obesity player Carmot Therapeutics for $2.7 billion last year. AstraZeneca licensed a drug that mimics GLP-1 from Eccogene in 2023, betting up to $2.01 billion on it. In the last few weeks of 2024, Merck inked a deal worth up to the same sum with China's Hansoh Pharma for its experimental weight-loss drug.
"M&A follows where segments of industry have higher-than-average growth rates," Daniel Chancellor, vice president of thought leadership at life sciences advisory firm Norstella, told IBD. "If you're looking at anything that's above average — immunology, oncology, neurology, even cardiovascular and, of course the GLP-1 space — these are areas where companies will want to be adding to their portfolios."
It's a truism of drug development: Biotech innovation is the lifeblood of Big Pharma.
Two years ago, 43% of sales for the top 25 pharmaceutical companies came from internally developed products. Last year, that number shrank to 35%, says Arda Ural, the Americas life sciences sector leader for professional services firm EY.
"So, two-thirds of revenue is coming from acquisitions," he told IBD. "That's clearly underlying that M&A has been the lifeblood of the biopharma business."
A normal year for life sciences involves $200 billion in merger and acquisition activity. As of November, 2024 had seen just $126 billion in mergers and acquisitions. That's well below 2023 — a particularly good year — and the historical average.
In other words, there's "pent-up demand," Ural said.
The Trump Impact On Biotech Stocks
That demand could be met under Trump.
In December, Trump announced his plan to appoint Andrew Ferguson to serve as the new chairman of the Federal Trade Commission, replacing Lina Khan. Ferguson is already a commissioner and previously served as solicitor general of the Commonwealth of Virginia.
Under Khan, the FTC challenged several licensing transactions in a way that's never been done before, says Michael Metzger, CEO of Syndax Pharmaceuticals. Licensing is a key business tactic for biotech companies, which often strike deals with larger pharma companies that can afford to further develop, manufacture and commercialize their products.
"The change there will hopefully give access to more cross-border transactions and more activity in the U.S. relative to M&A," he told IBD. "The need is certainly there for pharma to continue to acquire companies with assets that are meaningful — certainly later-stage assets."
But there are some wild cards with Trump 2.0.
Working With RFK Jr., Dr. Oz
One is Robert F. Kennedy Jr. The president-elect plans to appoint the controversial figure, known simply as RFK Jr., to head up the Department of Health and Human Services. The department manages the Food and Drug Administration, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, and CMS.
Kennedy is a well-known vaccine skeptic who has also expressed support for diet and exercise to treat or prevent obesity. Both stances could impact biotech stocks like BioNTech and Moderna in the vaccine space, and Viking, Amgen and Regeneron in weight-loss drugs.
On the flip side, Trump plans to put Dr. Mehmet Oz in charge of CMS. Dr. Oz is a TV celebrity. He has spoken in favor of weight-loss drugs. Similarly, Elon Musk — the CEO of SpaceX, Tesla and X — has pumped up the benefits of anti-obesity medications. Trump named Musk and Vivek Ramaswamy, a former biotech CEO, to lead his Department of Government Efficiency, or DOGE.
Despite concerns about Trump's choices, Beam Therapeutics CEO John Evans sounds upbeat. He recalls how the first Trump administration launched Operation Warp Speed, a public-private initiative that helped fund the development, manufacturing and distribution of Covid shots, treatments and diagnostics.
"Without getting into nominees and their likelihood of being confirmed, I know the biotech industry is willing to work with the administration on areas of common ground," Evans told IBD.
Responsible AI For Biotech Stocks
One of those areas will undoubtedly be the use of artificial intelligence in drug development.
Some companies already use AI to sift through massive amounts of data to nail down disease trends and find protein targets involved in disease. AI could eventually involve using a machine to conjure the right antibody to shut down disease-causing proteins.
But the industry isn't there yet, say biotech stock experts. And it could be some time before it is. Once that happens, it will be up to thought leaders — in the government and industry — to figure out how to use AI responsibly.
The stakes are too high not to consider the implications of poorly used AI in drug development, says Paul Pallath, vice president of applied AI at Searce. Searce is a cloud computing and analytics services provider.
"Yes, AI can do a lot," he told IBD. "It can cook up things that are nonexistent. How do we, as the pharma industry, have responsible AI frameworks established? That's going to underpin all the research we do. How do we use it for good? How do we push boundaries but have a responsible framework? And how much do we push?"
In 2025, investors in biotech stocks can expect companies to invest more deeply in their AI capabilities. One big use case is in clinical trial design, says Beam's Evans.
"If you can predict patients that are more likely to respond to a given drug, then your trial can be done more efficiently," he said.
Still, Zevra Therapeutics CEO Neil McFarlane notes that human interpretation will always be needed in AI work. Chemistry and physics have defined rules. But biology is different. In fact, diseases often occur because biology didn't adhere to doctors' understanding of the rules.
Early Days For Gene Editing
Biotech is blazing a trail in understanding — and even changing the rules — of gene editing. And experts are keeping a close eye on the genetic medicines space following the approval of the first drug to use CRISPR gene editing in 2024.
That drug, Casgevy from Crispr Therapeutics and Vertex Pharmaceuticals, treats sickle cell disease and beta thalassemia. Both are tied to abnormal formation of hemoglobin, a protein that helps deliver oxygen throughout the body. Crispr's drug reprograms the body, permanently, to create normal hemoglobin.
But there are myriad ways to improve on Casgevy. Casgevy is what's known as an ex vivo gene-editing treatment. This means a patient's cells are removed, edited and then reinfused in a bespoke product. This Casgevy manufacturing process is long. It can also be painful. Before treatment, patients must undergo a conditioning regimen to wipe out their bone marrow.
Gene Editing Strategies Of Biotech Stocks
Companies are working on gentler conditioning regimens or gene-editing treatments that don't require them. In vivo efforts also are underway. These drugs would do the actual gene editing inside the body. Beam is working on one of them.
Beam CEO Evans says some patients won't be eligible for the conditioning regimen. Others won't want to go through it, worrying about the potential for infertility down the road. These patients will be better suited to second-generation treatments, he says.
Eventually, Evans expects a handful of companies to emerge in the gene-editing space. He compares it to the RNA interference, or RNAi, segment. Today, Alnylam and Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals are two big-name biotech stocks involved. But far more companies were active in the earlier days.
"There is a certain reality to the scarcity factor in terms of both capital and talent to get these things done," he said. "I think now, in gene editing, it's more of a story of critical mass. Who has the critical mass of people, of capabilities across both editing and delivery and manufacturing and regulatory? Who has the pipeline with assets that are a good fit for their disease and can generate enough investor interest?"
Can Biotech Stocks Come Back?
Evans acknowledges investment in biotech stocks was fairly unenthusiastic in 2024.
Out of 197 industry groups tracked by IBD, the 729-company Medical-Biomed/Biotech industry group ranks a so-so No. 76. The group has an IBD Relative Strength Rating of 66. This means shares rank, collectively, in the top one-third of all stocks when it comes to 12-month performance. Generally, the best growth stocks rank in the top 20% in Relative Strength.
Both measures have fallen over the last year. A year ago, the biotech stock group ranked fifth with an RS Rating of 97.
Some biotech stocks have managed to stay above the slide. Exelixis, Corcept and ADMA lead the group in terms of technical and fundamental measures, as well as 12-month performance, according to MarketSurge. Corcept is best known for Korlym, which treats Cushing's disease in patients with type 2 diabetes. Exelixis makes cancer treatments, while ADMA sells a drug that bolsters the immune system.
Notably, several biotech stocks also rank on the IBD 50 list of elite growth stocks. They include Travere Therapeutics and Argenx. Travere makes a treatment for a chronic kidney disease, while Argenx works in the autoimmune diseases space. Both have top-notch RS Ratings of 96 and 93, respectively.
The peak in 2021 was "unrealistically high," Evans said. But there's still a lot to like in the biotech world.
"That was a very unique moment driven by a lot of capital flowing, zero interest rates and a once-every-few decades boom where the entire public imagination got captured by things like mRNA vaccines," he said. "It is an amazingly exciting time in biotech, and they were right to be excited."
Follow Allison Gatlin on X/Twitter at @IBD_AGatlin.
