BioNTech said Monday it expects roughly $5.4 billion in sales of its Covid vaccine this year, widely missing expectations and leading BNTX stock to tumble.
For the year, the German biotech company predicted about 5 billion euros in revenue from its Pfizer-partnered Covid shot. Analysts polled by FactSet projected 7.45 billion euros — about $8.03 billion based on today's exchange rates. Sales would dive more than 71%.
The guidance isn't unexpected, said Lee Brown, global sector lead for health care at research firm Third Bridge. Pfizer's guidance suggests a 31% drop in sales this year as its Covid products, the vaccine and an antiviral pill, enter the commercial market with the end of the U.S. public health emergency in May.
"With the Covid-19 vaccine now transitioned from government to commercial pricing, with the latter four to five times greater, the substantially weaker demand in volume striking, although not altogether surprising to us based on prior conversations with industry experts," Brown said in a note to clients.
In response, BNTX stock skidded 3.6% and closed at 123.60. Pfizer stock also fell a fraction to 40.24 on today's stock market.
BNTX Stock: Strong Earnings Report
The outlook comes on the heels of a strong fourth-quarter report. BioNTech earned 9.26 euros a share on 4.28 billion euros in sales. That comes out to about $9.97 and $4.61 billion, respectively. Both metrics topped BNTX stock analysts' forecasts, though earnings fell 24% and sales tumbled 23%.
Chief Executive Ugur Sahin credited the updated omicron-focused Covid booster for the strong financial performance. That shot attempts to block Covid cases caused by the B.A.4 and B.A.5 subvariants of omicron. However, the dominant strain in the U.S. is now XBB.1.5, which accounts for more than 90% of cases. B.A.4 and B.A.5 no longer account for any sequenced cases.
"In addition, multiple new modalities achieved encouraging data and we progressed nine new programs into clinical (studies)," Sahin said in written remarks. "As we look to 2023 and beyond, we plan to continue investing in our transformation with a focus on building commercial capabilities in oncology and working toward registrational (studies)."
Monday's results sent BNTX stock careening further below its 50-day moving average, according to MarketSmith.com. Further, shares fell definitively below that point in late December and are now stranded below that ceiling.
Follow Allison Gatlin on Twitter at @IBD_AGatlin.
