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Fortune
Fortune
Amanda Gerut

Bill Gross warns investors away from trying to ‘catch a falling knife’ amid global market carnage

Bill Gross, co-founder of Pacific Investment Management Co. (PIMCO), speaks during a Bloomberg Television interview at the Bloomberg FI16 event in Beverly Hills, California, U.S., on Wednesday, May 25, 2016. (Credit: Patrick T. Fallon/Bloomberg via Getty Images)
  • President Trump’s Liberation Day tariff push sparked a worldwide market selloff that harkened back to mid-March of 2020 and impact of the Covid pandemic on the global economy. The S&P 500 dropped 5%, the Nasdaq tumbled 6%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average sunk 4%. Given the turmoil, renowned bond investor Bill Gross warned investors against shopping amid bargain bins of the dip, at least for now. 

Pimco cofounder and “Bond King” Bill Gross is warning investors away from plunging into the market bloodbath and trying to root around for less expensive securities. 

“I think there will be time to buy many of these bargains over the next few days, weeks, or months,” said Gross, speaking on CNBC. During his interview and in posts on social media, Gross recommended investors to stay calm because the tariff event is something everyone will have to live with as long as the U.S. continues its stance. 

“It’s not something you can time quickly for a market bottom,” said Gross. 

The equities selloff that began midway through President Trump’s Rose Garden tariff hard launch on Wednesday tore through Asia and the EU before firmly taking root in the U.S. on Thursday. The S&P 500 was down 5%, its worst day since March 2020, while the Nasdaq dropped 6%. Analysts at JPMorgan said the risk of a global recession now stands at 60%, compared to a 40% probability just days ago. 

In a post on X, Gross said  he didn’t think Trump would budge from his tariff posture. 

“President Trump, to be very blunt, is a macho male,” said Gross. “And this macho male is not going to back down tomorrow simply because the Nasdaq is down 5%.”

Given the serious implications for currencies, world markets, economic policy around the world, and the volatility of the situation, it’s not a great time to hunt for deals, said Gross. 

“Investors should not try to 'catch a falling knife,'” Gross wrote on X. “Today’s appealing ‘bargains’ will be around tomorrow and the next day.”

Gross said he is focused on buying domestic stocks in telephone companies like AT&T and Verizon and tobacco companies like Altria. “That’s not to say you should continue to buy them even if they’re not going up,” said Gross. Even that branch of the market is veering on “overbought,” he said. AT&T ended the day up 1.6%, while Altria rose 1.35% and Verizon gained nearly 2%.

Aside from stocks, Gross said there’s nothing wrong with cash. Berkshire Hathaway’s Warren Buffett has been selling off equities since last year and is parked atop a pile of cash worth $334 billion. Other fund managers followed suit. A survey conducted by Bank of America and published in March found 55% of fund advisers who oversee some $425 billion in assets viewed the biggest tail risk in the market as a recession ignited by a trade war. More than 70% of the fund managers surveyed said sluggish growth and rising inflation, stagflation, was on the horizon.  

In the best-case scenario, Trump will claim in a few weeks or months that his trade policies are working, raising trillions of dollars, and that it’s time to dial them back, said Gross. Still, it’s unlikely Trump backs off his tariff strategy any time soon, he warned. 

“While we’re waiting to see what happens, there’s nothing wrong with the word 'cash,'” added Gross. 

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