The 2023 NFL Draft is in the books, so it’s time for fans of prop bets to start looking at which players are most likely to win Offensive Rookie of the Year. First, let’s take a walk down memory lane and see which first-year stars have earned the award in the last 10 years to see what trends we can find that help us make a better wager.
During our timeframe, three quarterbacks have earned the honor. Those were Justin Herbert (2020), Kyler Murray (2019) and Dak Prescott (2016). Running backs have won the award four times, a list that includes Saquon Barkley (2018), Alvin Kamara (2017), Todd Gurley (2015) and Eddie Lacy (2013). The remaining trio are wideouts, Garrett Wilson (2022), Ja’Marr Chase (2021) and Odell Beckham Jr. (2014).
Each of the last five winners were drafted in the first round, so bettors should take that into consideration. Overall, seven of the last 10 were Round 1 selections. The lone exceptions are Prescott (Round 4), Kamara (Round 3) and Lacy (Round 2).
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As you can see, running backs and wide receivers have been the most likely skill positions to win the award in the last decade (70%), and wideouts have won it in each of the last two seasons. Of course, the favorite for this 2023 Offensive Rookie of the Year is Bijan Robinson, who comes in at +300 over at SI Sportsbook. That’s no surprise, as he’s been described as the most talented running back to come out of college since Barkley. He was also a first-rounder, so he checks all the boxes of recent trends.
2023 Offensive Rookie of the Year Odds
Bijan Robinson +300
Bryce Young +450
CJ Stroud +700
Anthony Richardson +750
Jaxon Smith-Njigba +800
Jahmyr Gibbs +1100
Jordan Addison +1400
Quentin Johnston +1800
Zay Flowers +2000
Will Levis +2000
If you’re looking for some options that come with more attractive plus money totals, Jordan Addison might be your man. Playing alongside Justin Jefferson will keep him from seeing double teams, and the Vikings' pass attack should have plenty of targets available with both Adam Thielen and Irv Smith Jr. no longer on the roster.
The downside? Well, there has never been a three-year run in the league’s history where a wideout has won the award. Wilson and Chase have gone back-to-back in the last two years, Louis Lipps and Eddie Brown did it back in 1984-1985, and that’s it. Also, no tight end has ever won the award so wagering on Dalton Kincaid (+4000) or Michael Mayer (+5000) is like flushing your hard-earned money down the toilet.
Quarterbacks have won the award three times over the last 10 years and nine times since 2003 (20 years), making up nearly 50% of the winners in the last two decades. I don’t like any of the top three field generals to make it 10 winners in the last 21 years, but Bryce Young (+450), CJ Stroud (+700) and Anthony Richardson (+750) rank second, third and fourth in terms of the best overall odds to win the award.
