It’ll be OK in the end. Won’t it?
With three rounds of Concacaf matches remaining, squeezed into only seven days, there is the potential for things to go wrong in a hurry as the US conclude their qualifying campaign for this year’s World Cup.
Of course, they might go right! And they probably will. But there is some negativity bias seared into the American psyche after the shock of 2017, when the US failed to qualify for the 2018 tournament. Bruce Arena’s side needed only a point from their final match against Trinidad and Tobago yet contrived to lose 2-1 as other results went against them.
The most unlikely scenario was the one that transpired. Phrases such as “the odds are very much in the Americans’ favor” no longer contain much comfort value now that, post Trinidad, they can always be answered with: “Yeah, but…”
The way to cauterize that wound is to qualify for Qatar. Victory in the Azteca Stadium on Thursday could achieve that, depending on results elsewhere, but the Americans have only won once in the thin air of Mexico City, in a friendly in 2012. “Our record here is horrendous,” US head coach Gregg Berhalter conceded in a press conference on Wednesday.
The Americans’ position in the standings reflects the team’s overall performances: decent rather than dominant. It has not been an imperious march towards Qatar, a decisive shift from the previous campaign’s convulsions. That was an unrealistic hope given the rebuilding required under new management and the emergence of Canada as a force.
All but qualified, Canada lead by four points ahead of the US and Mexico, with Panama four points below them and fifth-placed Costa Rica another point back. The top trio qualify automatically while the fourth-placed nation earns a single-match playoff in Qatar in June against a team from Oceania, expected to be New Zealand.
There is none of the complacency from the past cycle. “Of course we use [missing out] as motivation. We were extremely upset and now we want to qualify,” forward Christian Pulisic told reporters. “We definitely don’t want to go through that again.”
Still, the schedule invites a dramatic climax. With Panama likely to win at home to hapless Honduras on Thursday, it’s plausible that the US lose to Mexico and drop to third, only a point ahead of Panama. The two meet in Orlando on Sunday and Panama beat the US last October.
Should Mexico defeat the US and Panama win while Costa Rica surprise Canada and move two points behind Berhalter’s men, the calamitous scenario of a fifth-place finish would loom larger. As it happens, the US conclude their campaign on 30 March with a visit to Costa Rica, another place where they have never won a World Cup qualifier.
The fixtures crunch gives Berhalter a selection dilemma. Avoiding defeat in Mexico would be a boost ahead of the clash with Panama. The US beat an unexceptional Mexico squad three times in 2021, so getting a draw, even a win, is not a quixotic notion.
However, the importance of Sunday’s game means that Berhalter may decide to save the legs of key players, while five are on a yellow card and facing a one-match suspension if they collect another. He said that he had discussed fielding a “B team” with his coaching staff: “We came out with our answer, and you’ll see”.
Injuries give the young roster a shallow aspect in some positions. Gio Reyna returns but the US are without Weston McKennie, Sergiño Dest, Matt Turner and the only American ever-present in qualifying, Brenden Aaronson. McKennie, a tone-setting fireball in midfield, is an especially significant loss. “It’s how you respond when you don’t have your guys that’s important,” Berhalter said. “Everyone we have on this roster, all 26 of them, can compete, and that’s what it’s going to take.”
Last autumn’s apparent solution at striker is now more of a question than an answer: Ricardo Pepi is without a goal in five months for club and country. Tim Weah is a brisk winger but the onus is on Pulisic to carry the team’s attack – much like the last campaign. “I’m feeling very good and I’m feeling in a good rhythm at the moment,” the Chelsea forward said. “This is a really hungry team who is going to give absolutely everything to make sure we have a spot in the World Cup.”
Meanwhile, while Berhalter has rotated and ruminated, carefree Canada, undefeated and guided lucidly by John Herdman, have emerged as probably the best – and definitely the most fun – team in Concacaf.
A detailed dissection of the region’s northwards power shift can wait for a few more days, though. Berhalter gathered his staff ahead of the trip to the Azteca and told them: “This is probably the biggest week of our lives as professional coaches.” It is unlikely to be serene. But in the end, it will probably also be the best.
