Something has to give when it comes to Sunday’s matchup between Green Bay Packers quarterback Jordan Love and the Denver Broncos passing defense.
Consider this: Love ranks last among qualified NFL quarterbacks in completion percentage at 55.6, while the Broncos defense ranks last in completion percentage allowed at 76.4.
Sunday in Denver should be a big opportunity for Love to drastically increase his completion percentage (or a big opportunity for the Broncos to drastically lower their completion percentage allowed).
While Love has been one of the most aggressive (and least accurate) quarterbacks in the NFL throwing down the field this season, facing the Broncos should provide the kind of high-percentage throws to the short and intermediate areas he needs. Per pro-football-reference.com, opposing quarterbacks are averaging 6.4 yards of average depth of target against the Broncos defense, which is the second-shortest average in the NFL. Put another way, quarterbacks are throwing short and completing most of their passes against the Broncos.
This week, Love admitted that finding the checkdown instead of always hunting the big play downfield is an adjustment he likely has to make going forward.
“I think for me, the biggest thing I can do to help those stats is just find those completions,” Love said. “You talk about those deep balls downfield, and there’s a time and place, just knowing when to pull the trigger and when to check the ball down to get those positive plays, just get the sticks moving. Kind of just situational awareness. I think all those things will improve the more reps I get. The more comfortable I get.”
The Broncos have generally played a lot of two-deep shell coverages designed to prevent the big play. Maybe that strategy changes against Love and the Packers, especially if Aaron Jones plays and is effective, but facing two-deep safeties can provide opportunities for easy completions underneath coverage.
Staying in more manageable down-and-distances is another priority. Checkdowns and short passes aren’t as useful on 2nd-and-17. But 2nd-and-7? Throwing underneath is a far more attractive option. The Packers can’t have Love trying to dig himself out of so many tough passing situations, so increasing the success rate on first and second down is pivotal, both Sunday and every game moving forward.
In almost every way, Love needs to be a more accurate passer. He’s been erratic to all levels of the field. While a million factors impact a given passing play, the quarterback ultimately needs to deliver a catchable football whether the throw is on time or off schedule. Maybe Sunday’s showdown in Denver can be something of a jumping off point as Love navigates being a first-year starter surrounded by young players.
Overall, the next games should be important for Love and the completion percentage statistic. The Broncos rank last in opposing quarterback completion, while the Minnesota Vikings — the Packers’ Week 8 opponent — currently rank 31st.
