Every now and then, you just have to laugh at the AP Top 25 poll.
Most of the voters are beat writers covering individual schools, so they might not have the greatest feel for what’s unfolding on the national scene. There’s a rote, perfunctory nature to the voting itself, which rewards results, of course, but also is steeped in a blend of preconceived notions and recency biases.
And now we’ve got Minnesota (-6½) at No. 24 Illinois (11 a.m., BTN, 890-AM), a game in which the unranked road team is a decisive favorite against a ranked home foe. On its face, that makes no sense at all. So what’s the real deal? Should the Gophers (4-1 overall, 1-1 Big Ten) be ranked? Should the Illini (5-1, 2-1) be unranked? Is it the point spread that’s way off?
I trust the betting line over the rankings any day of the season, for what it’s worth.
A few other important factors to consider: Illinois quarterback Tommy DeVito could miss this one with an ankle injury, pressing Art Sitkowski into starting duty; the Gophers have irreplaceable running back Mohamed Ibrahim, who missed the loss against Purdue last time out, back in action; and the Gophers are coming off a bye week, a great opportunity to heal up and prepare for a stern test.
“Now we’re in the real world, right?” said coach Bret Bielema of Illinois, ranked for the first time since 2011.
Bielema is 8-0 in his career against Minnesota, including a 14-6 upset last year in Minneapolis.
“Obviously,” Gophers coach P.J. Fleck said, “he’s one of the best college coaches maybe of all time.”
Oh, no, that’s not laying it on thick at all.
But this is a terrific matchup, one that clearly could go either way. The Illini lead the nation in scoring defense, rank third against the rush and are ninth against the pass, while the Gophers are tops in the land in total defense and sixth each against the run and the pass. Illini running back Chase Brown leads the nation with 879 rushing yards but might be second-best in this game to Ibrahim, who has 3,570 yards and 41 touchdowns in his career.
Ibrahim didn’t play in last November’s game, when the Illini sacked quarterback Tanner Morgan six times and intercepted him twice. Since then, Bielema’s team has really backed that performance up. Now — just midway through October — the Illini are playing for bowl eligibility.
“There’s going to be a big game on Saturday,” Bielema said, “because we made it a big game.”
Fortunately for the Illini, there will be others. Gophers, 20-13.
OTHER WEEK 7 PICKS
No. 10 Penn State (+7) at No. 5 Michigan (11 a.m., Fox-32): Some teams throw chains around their necks when they get a turnover. Others wave around championship belts. The Wolverines celebrate with “buffs,” which — as you would know, if you were as cool as I am — are selfies taken while wearing Cartier sunglasses in the Buffalo Horn style. Look, I just googled it and don’t get it, either. Maize and buffs, 27-17.
No. 3 Alabama (-7½) at No. 6 Tennessee (2:30 p.m., Ch. 2): How electric has this annual rivalry been since Nick Saban took over the Tide? Um, not very. The Vols are 0-15, with an average margin of defeat of 25.9 points, against the Nicktator. Will the Tide have Heisman Trophy-winning QB Bryce Young or will they have to go with backup Jalen Milroe? With Young: Tide cover. Without him: Tide lose outright.
No. 8 Oklahoma State (+4) at No. 13 TCU (2:30 p.m., Ch. 7): The Big 12’s only playoff hopefuls collide, perhaps one of the final times you’ll read “Big 12” and “playoff” in the same sentence this season. A hostile environment doesn’t rattle the experienced, tough-minded Cowboys, who win 38-35 to get to 6-0.
No. 15 NC State (+3½) at No. 18 Syracuse (2:30 p.m., ACCN): At full strength, the visitors are better across the board. Without injured QB Devin Leary, their most important player, they’re a much less attractive pick. Wolfpack somehow, some way, 20-17.
Stanford (+16½) at Notre Dame (6:30 p.m., Ch. 5, Peacock, 780-AM): The Irish have won the last three games in this series by at least three touchdowns, a pretty good indication of how far the Cardinal have fallen. David Shaw sure makes a lot of bread, but perhaps not for long. Enjoy that first quaff from the Legends Trophy, Marcus Freeman. Irish by — yep — at least three touchdowns.
No. 16 Mississippi State (-4) at No. 22 Kentucky (6:30 p.m., SECN): If there’s a key edge in this one, it belongs to MSU with its pass rush. Not a dang thing easy about winning in Lexington, but Cowbells ring 27-20.
My favorite favorite: No. 4 Clemson (-3½) at Florida State (6:30 p.m., Ch. 7): The Seminoles are getting closer. Maybe next year? But not tonight. Tigers’ winning streak against FSU rolls to seven.
My favorite underdog: No. 7 USC (+3½) at No. 20 Utah (7 p.m., Fox-32): I’m on the Trojans to win the Pac-12 and get to the playoff … until further notice, anyway.
Last week: 6-2 straight up, 3-5 vs. the spread.
Season to date: 34-17 straight up, 28-23 vs. the spread.
