Since Mohamed Muizzu was elected president of the Maldives in September, a wave of anti-India sentiment has swept the country. This week, it was made clear to New Delhi exactly where his government’s allegiances now lie.
“There will be no Indian troops in the country come 10 May. Not in uniform and not in civilian clothing. The Indian military will not be residing in this country in any form of clothing. I state this with confidence,” Muizzu said in a public address on Tuesday.
A few days earlier, the two neighbouring countries had got into a spat after Muizzu made a thinly veiled reference to India as a “bully” of smaller countries in the region. In response, India’s minister of external affairs, Subrahmanyam Jaishankar, said that “big bullies don’t provide $4.5bn aid”, in apparent reference to the large sums the Maldives still accepts from India.
In notable contrast, Muizzu’s government this week announced an agreement with China to receive free “military assistance” from Beijing, and China also gave the country 12 ambulances. Though the Maldives has had diplomatic and economic agreements with China in the past, this is the first time the two countries have formally established defence ties.
“It’s surprising Muizzu has moved so quickly to establish military ties with China, because it’s clear this would upset New Delhi,” said Azim Zahir, a former adviser to the Maldives government and professor of political science at the University of Western Australia. “This is a very new direction that will definitely escalate tensions in the region.”
The Maldives may be an archipelago of just 500,000 people, known best as a paradise tourist destination, but its strategic importance far outweighs its size, and it has long been at the centre of a tussle between India and China as they vie for influence in the Indian Ocean. The country also lies in a crucial east-west shipping lane that carries all of China’s oil supplies from the Gulf, and there is an important US naval base in the vicinity.
As China’s pursuit of influence in the region, particularly in the Indian Ocean, has become more aggressive, India has in turn invested vast amounts of resources and development funds in the Maldives – which sits right in its back yard – though it has often struggled to compete.
The previous Maldives government, under President Mohamed Solih, was more aligned with New Delhi and in the past five years India overtook China as the country’s biggest economic backer, providing funding for hospitals, schools, airports and other infrastructure, and giving large amounts of budgetary support.
In last year’s election, Muizzu ran a campaign based on the slogan “India out”, focusing on removing the dozens of Indian troops stationed in the country – there to operate emergency helicopters and aircraft presented by India – which he described as a threat to the country’s national security and sovereignty.
Muizzu and his Progressive Alliance government were already known for their pro-China leanings. During their last stint in power, between 2013 and 2018, they signed a free trade deal with China. Muizzu, who was mayor of the capital, Malé, at the time, oversaw the building of the China Maldives Friendship Bridge, a £150m project that connected the city to the airport.
In what many saw as a clear sign of his priorities, after taking power Muizzu’s first presidential visit was to China, where the two countries signed about 15 deals, and he has since held firm on his pledge to remove all Indian troops from the country. This week, Indian civilian teams arrived in the Maldives to take over the duties of the 89 military personnel, though this move has also been met with resistance.
Tensions rose further in January after India’s prime minister, Narendra Modi, visited Lakshadweep, an Indian archipelago 80 miles north of the Maldives in order to promote tourism. The visit was perceived by some in the Maldives as an attempt to draw travellers away from their country, whose economy is heavily dependent on tourist dollars.
It prompted some Maldivian ministers to label Modi as a “terrorist” and a “clown”, though they were later suspended for those comments. In return, many in India called for tourists to boycott the Maldives, and one Indian travel company suspended flights.
Last month, the Maldivian government also allowed a controversial Chinese research vessel to enter its waters, despite objections by India, which labelled it a “spy ship”.
The deal announced on Monday between the Maldives defence ministry and China is likely to annoy India even further. The agreement will ensure “China’s provision of military assistance” free of charge. Though few details were provided, it was said the deal would foster “stronger bilateral ties”.
In an apparent bid to strengthen its military presence in the region amid the tensions, over the weekend India announced plans for a second naval base in Lakshadweep.
Zahir said that while there were concerns that China had exploited the Maldives’ fraying ties with India and the country’s poor economic situation to strike the defence deal, India’s response to the new Muizzu government had been “shortsighted” and counterproductive, pushing the country even further towards Beijing.
Nonetheless, he emphasised that, given the large amount of budgetary aid provided by India, it was unlikely the Maldives could afford to sever ties completely. “Muizzu is trying to move away from this reliance on India, but I don’t know how far he can afford to go,” he said.
• This article was amended on 7 and 8 March 2024. A previous picture caption described Narendra Modi as India’s president, rather than prime minister. And a description of China in the headline that did not appear in the copy was removed.
