The Big 12 Tournament: A Championship Run Through Houston? Or Can Texas Tech Challenge the Cougars?
For months, the Big 12 has been a gauntlet, a test of endurance, depth, and resolve. Now, as teams descend upon Kansas City for the conference tournament, one question looms: Can anyone stop Houston?
Kelvin Sampson’s team enters as the clear favorite, a program built on defense, discipline, and dominance. But March is unpredictable. And in a conference filled with battle-tested contenders, the road to a title is rarely smooth.
Here’s what to watch as the best teams in the Big 12 take the floor at T-Mobile Center.
Houston: The Team to Beat
Few teams in the country, let alone the Big 12, have been as unshakable as Houston.
The Cougars closed the regular season on a 10-game winning streak, smothering opponents with one of the nation’s best defenses. Not a single team broke 65 points against them during that stretch. L.J. Cryer has been an offensive force, but Houston’s success is built on a commitment to relentless defensive pressure and rebounding.
Since the end of November, they’ve lost just once. That defeat? A 75-73 overtime thriller at Texas Tech—a game where Houston had a chance to win in the final seconds.
Now, as the tournament’s No. 1 seed, the Cougars own the double bye and are positioned to make a statement before the NCAA Tournament begins. But will they complete the run, or will someone rise to challenge them?
Iowa State’s Big Moment and Kansas’s Collapse
Iowa State once looked like a legitimate Big 12 contender, surging as high as No. 2 in the national rankings. However, injuries and illness have taken their toll, leading to three losses in their final five games. If they’re going to make a run, they’ll need to find the defensive toughness that made them so dangerous earlier in the season.
And then there’s Kansas.
The preseason No. 1 team in the country has unraveled. The Jayhawks lost seven of their last 13 games and suffered one of the worst losses of the Bill Self era, a stunning 30-point blowout at BYU.
Kansas is typically a dominant force in this tournament, playing in front of a pro-KU crowd in Kansas City. But right now? They don’t look like a team capable of making a deep run. If there’s any hope of a turnaround, it has to start this week.
2025 Big 12 Tournament Futures Odds
- Houston Cougars -130
- Texas Tech Red Raiders +400
- Arizona Wildcats +800
- Iowa State Cyclones +800
- Brigham Young Cougars +1000
- Kansas Jayhawks +1200
- Baylor Bears +4000
- West Virginia Mountaineers +6000
- Cincinnati Bearcats +20000
- Central Florida Knights +25000
- Kansas State Wildcats +25000
- Texas Christian Horned Frogs +25000
- Utah Utes +25000
- Arizona State Sun Devils +30000
- Oklahoma State Cowboys +30000
- Colorado Buffaloes +50000
2025 Big 12 Tournament Schedule
First Round (Tues., March 11)
Game 1: (13) Cincinnati (17-14, 7-13) vs. (12) Oklahoma State (15-16, 7-13), 12:30
The Cowboys won the pair’s lone meeting; 78-67 in Stillwater on 3/8.
Game 2: (16) Colorado (12-19, 3-17) vs. (9) TCU (16-15, 9-11), 3*
The season series was a home split: Horned Frogs 68-57 on 2/2 and Buffaloes 76-56 on 3/8.
Game 3: (15) Arizona State (13-18, 4-16) vs. (10) Kansas State (15-16, 9-11), 7
The season series was a road split: Wildcats 71-70 on 2/4 and Sun Devils 66-54 on 2/23.
Game 4: (14) UCF (16-15, 7-13) vs. (11) Utah (16-15, 8-12), 9:30*
The Knights won the pair’s lone meeting; 76-72 in Orlando on 2/23.
Second Round (Wed., March 12)
Game 5: Game 1 winner vs. (5) Iowa State (23-8, 13-7), 12:30 (ESPN or ESPN2)
Game 6: Game 2 winner vs. (8) West Virginia (19-12, 10-10), 3* (ESPN+ ($))
Game 7: Game 3 winner vs. (7) Baylor (18-13, 10-10), 7 (ESPN+ ($))
Game 8: Game 4 winner vs. (6) Kansas (20-11, 11-9), 9:30* (ESPN2 or ESPNU)
Quarterfinals (Thurs., March 13)
ESPN or ESPN2 will air all four games.
Game 9: Game 5 winner vs. (4) BYU (23-8, 14-6), 12:30
Game 10: Game 6 winner vs. (1) Houston (27-4, 19-1), 3*
Game 11: Game 7 winner vs. (2) Texas Tech (24-7, 15-5), 7
Game 12: Game 8 winner vs. (3) Arizona (20-11, 14-6), 9:30*
Semifinals (Fri., March 14)
ESPN2 will air both games.
Game 13: Game 9 winner vs. Game 10 winner, 7
Game 14: Game 11 winner vs. Game 12 winner, 9:30*
Championship (Sat., March 15)
Game 15: Semifinal winners, 6 (ESPN)
Expert Pick: Texas Tech +400
If there’s one team that’s already cracked the code, it’s Texas Tech.
The Red Raiders beat Houston in their first matchup—and did so under extraordinary circumstances. They played nearly the entire game without their best player, J.T. Toppin, and without their head coach, Grant McCasland, who were both ejected in the first five minutes. Despite those obstacles, Tech hit 12 three-pointers, seven more than Houston, and handed the Cougars their only loss in two months.
Houston got revenge in the rematch, winning 69-61 in Lubbock, but the Red Raiders were missing Chance McMillian, their second-leading scorer and best shooter.
And if there’s one thing Texas Tech has proven this season, it’s that they live and die by the three. They rank third in the Big 12 in three-point shooting and first in three-point defense, per KenPom. When the shots are falling, they are a nightmare matchup for any opponent—Houston included.
With a favorable path to the title game, Texas Tech won’t have to see Houston until a potential championship showdown. Their opening matchup is against Kansas State, Arizona State, or Baylor—teams they’ve already beaten this season. If they get there, could they do it again?
The Prediction: A Collision Course for the Title?
Houston has the metrics, the defense, and the resume. But history shows that the last three regular-season Big 12 champions have failed to win the tournament title.
Texas Tech is the one team that has already beaten the Cougars, and they may be the best bet to do it again.
Their ability to control the three-point line—both offensively and defensively—gives them a legitimate shot. They’ve won seven Quad 1 games, have the second-highest scoring margin in Big 12 play, and are built for a deep March run.
And if they make it to Sunday’s final, don’t be surprised if Texas Tech is the last team standing in Kansas City.
Best Bets:
- Texas Tech +400
