The Kremlin has met Joe Biden’s surprise visit to Ukraine with official silence, as analysts and pundits suggested the US leader’s historic trip was an unwelcome twist ahead of a speech by Vladimir Putin and other state events set to mark the anniversary of the full-scale invasion.
Biden’s surprise trip to Ukraine has undercut the Kremlin narrative that the west’s support for Ukraine is waning, with promises of another $500m (£415m) in military aid and fresh sanctions set to be imposed before the end of the week.
And the visit to wartime Kyiv has also exposed Putin’s own hesitance to visit the front after launching the invasion exactly one year ago, with the Russian president ridiculed for hiding in a “bunker”.
Putin is due to give a state of the nation speech to Russia’s Federal Assembly on 21 February. In anticipation, the Kremlin is planning to hold a celebratory concert at the Luzhniki Stadium on the same day, and then to convene extraordinary sessions of the Duma and Federation Council on Wednesday.
“I am expecting that tomorrow Putin may be extremely hawkish with the west in his annual address,” said Tatiana Stanovaya, the founder of the R Politik political analysis firm. “I would not like to fantasise about it, but he can suspend or withdraw from some treaties, he can present the situation as a war between the west and Russia.”
While the legislative sessions may just be for show, they would also be necessary if the Kremlin is planning to take any major new foreign policy decisions. A year ago, hastily convened sessions of the legislature authorised Putin to use force abroad, days before he launched his dawn assault on Kyiv.
Now, the Kremlin’s path forward is more complicated, following an underwhelming winter offensive and expectations that Ukraine is readying itself for a spring counteroffensive.
The bleak outlook for the war is one of the reasons why Putin is unlikely to visit the front this week, Stanovaya said.
“I don’t think he will go,” she said. “He needs to have a much more positive, optimistic situation than it is now for that. And it’s also a matter of security.”
The Kremlin offered no public comment about Biden’s visit on Monday, although both the White House and former Russian president Dmitry Medvedev said Biden’s team had warned the Kremlin, for the purpose of “deconfliction”, that he was planning to visit Kyiv. Biden is also set to speak in Warsaw on Tuesday just after Putin’s speech.
Biden’s trip is expected to be viewed in the Kremlin as the latest confirmation that Moscow is fighting not just against Ukraine but against what it calls the collective west.
“It will be, for them, another proof that Washington has unambiguously chosen its camp,” said Stanovaya. “It’s a proof of total disruption with Russia, confirmation that now the west bets on the strategic defeat of Putin.”
Russian state television gave circumspect reports on Biden’s visit.
“Zelenskiy is in wild delight – he’s just published his first photos on social media with Biden from Kyiv,” said a host on the Russian political talkshow 60 Minutes on state-run television. “It’s the genuine Joe Biden in Ukraine. On your screens now.”
A political commentator quickly suggested the visit was a “good start to Biden’s re-election campaign”. Meanwhile, Russian television broadcast a countdown to Putin’s speech, while a popular pro-Kremlin Telegram channel wrote there would be “no way back” after the Russian president speaks on Tuesday.
But other Russian pro-war commentators on Telegram used Biden’s visit as an opportunity to launch a careful attack on Putin for failing to visit the war zone.
“Look, there are two grandpas,” wrote Zastavny, a pro-war Russian blogger with more than 110,000 subscribers. “One of them is old, has all the signs of Alzheimer’s, dementia, and night-time urination, the whole world makes fun of him. The other grandpa looks very good, has a spring in his step, speaks well, thinks clearly, and has the widely accepted reputation of a strong and brave leader.
“But only one of [the leaders] has actually come to Kyiv. And the other one [Putin] didn’t go to Donetsk, he still hasn’t gone.”
