As of Feb. 28, 2023, PredictIt’s 2024 presidential market shows President Joe Biden (D) as the favorite to win at $0.36, followed by Florida Governor Ron DeSantis (R) at $0.28, and former President Donald Trump (R) at $0.25. Biden has held the lead in this market since Jan. 22, 2023. No other candidate has more than a $0.10 share price. The share price, which rises and falls based on market demand, roughly corresponds to the market’s estimate of the probability of an event taking place.
Trump is the only candidate of this group to have officially announced his presidential campaign.
The Democratic presidential primary market shows Biden leading the pack at $0.61. One other candidate, California Governor Gavin Newsom (D), has a share price at or above $0.10. Newsom stands at $0.15.
Trump and DeSantis are tied in the Republican presidential primary market, both at $0.38. No other candidate has a share price at or above $0.10. Former South Carolina Governor and U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley (R), who formally announced her candidacy on Feb. 14, is at $0.09.
PredictIt is an online political futures market in which users purchase shares relating to the outcome of political events using real money. Each event, such as an election, has a number of contracts associated with it, each correlating to a different outcome. Services such as PredictIt can be used to gain insight into the outcome of elections. Due to action from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, PredictIt may halt trading. The platform was initially set to shut down on February 15, but the CFTC action is currently under injunction as a court considers PredictIt’s appeal to the decision.
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