Oresident Joe Biden has dropped out of the 2024 presidential race, capping off weeks of speculation over his political future and shifting Democrats’ plans for November.
Incumbency is usually one of the most helpful tools to deliver a candidate a victory. But Biden’s advanced age – he is 81 – and his disastrous performance at the 27 June debate with former president Donald Trump made Democrats unconvinced he could win the general election.
Biden has insisted for weeks that he would not be dropping out, defying both his friends and detractors who wanted him to step aside for a younger candidate who would be better able to campaign for the party.
His repeated media and campaign trail appearances since the debate have not assuaged voters’ or donors’ fears about his mental acuity, instead keeping the issue of his age in headlines for the past few weeks.
On Sunday, Biden said that while he intended to seek re-election, he now believed “it is in the best interest of my party and the country for me to stand down and to focus solely on fulfilling my duties as President for the remainder of my term”.
He also said he would address the country “later this week in more detail” about his decision.
Here’s what we know so far about why Biden dropped out and what this means for the 2024 presidential race, a topsy-turvy election to say the least.
The pressure campaign on Biden was unavoidable
What started as a trickle of elected or high-profile Democrats calling for Biden to quit his re-election bid grew into an unavoidable chorus in recent days as the president’s media appearances did little to assuage concerns.
The debate surprised even those who had worked with Biden, who said he had seemed more able to do the job in private meetings or that he had been cordoned off by his team perhaps because he was in decline.
With each day that passed since the debate, more people seemed to add to the list of Democrats ready for Biden to move on. More than 30 members of Congress have called for Biden to end his bid, as have former elected officials and Democratic donors, such as the actor George Clooney.
But some key Democrats stayed in Biden’s corner, such as the Vermont senator Bernie Sanders and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and Jim Clyburn, both prominent members of the House of Representatives.
Biden then caught Covid during a critical time in his effort to convince Democrats that he was up to the job. He has weathered the illness well, according to his doctor, but it has taken him off the campaign trail and away from media appearances.
Over the past few days, a behind-the-scenes pressure campaign orchestrated by the former House speaker Nancy Pelosi and former president Barack Obama appears to have been the final push Biden needed.
Voters were saying age was a factor all along
Voters have expressed concerns since Biden announced he would run again, saying his age and mental fitness played into whether they would vote for him. During his 2020 bid, Biden had indicated he intended to be a bridge to a next generation, which caused confusion over why he was running for a second term.
Voters have pointed to Trump’s age as well, given he is just a few years younger than Biden, but their prevailing problems with Trump tend to deal more with his policies and personality than age.
During the primaries, no major opposition to Biden emerged, with Democrats all but clearing the way for the incumbent. Dean Phillips, a congressman from Minnesota, ran against Biden in several states and often mentioned the need for a fresh perspective on the ticket, but failed to appeal to many voters.
Democrats were hesitant to discuss Biden’s age until it became a more visible issue for voters. Age is an immovable factor in politics: while a candidate could change their policies or strategies, they cannot make themselves younger.
Biden’s staying in the White House until his term ends
Biden’s letter on Sunday specifically noted that he intends to stay in office until his term ends in January.
But expect Republicans to make hay over this: they will call for Biden to step down immediately, saying if he isn’t able to campaign then he isn’t able to govern.
In the immediate aftermath of the campaign announcement, some Republicans were already calling for Biden’s resignation.
“If Joe Biden can’t run for re-election, he is unable and unfit to serve as President of the United States. He must immediately resign,” Representative Elise Stefanik wrote on X.
The Republican House speaker, Mike Johnson, said the same in a statement: “If Joe Biden is not fit to run for president, he is not fit to serve as president. He must resign the office immediately. November 5 cannot arrive soon enough.”
Democrats probably won’t call for Biden to leave office immediately but will shift focus to who will run in his stead and how they can deliver a victory while respecting the millions of voters who turned out for Biden in the primaries.
Will Kamala Harris be the nominee, or will there be an open convention?
The Democratic party has not officially named their candidate yet, with the convention set for 19 to 22 August in Chicago. With his withdrawal, Biden’s delegates become “uncommitted”, leaving them open to support other candidates. That throws the Democratic national convention for a loop.
Some have reported that part of Biden’s hesitation to abandon his campaign stemmed from a belief that Harris, the most obvious choice to run for president, could not beat Trump.
But Biden gave Harris his endorsement right after his announcement on Sunday after calling her “an extraordinary partner in all this work” in his letter.
“My very first decision as the party nominee in 2020 was to pick Kamala Harris as my Vice President. And it’s been the best decision I’ve made. Today I want to offer my full support and endorsement for Kamala to be the nominee of our party this year. Democrats– it’s time to come together and beat Trump. Let’s do this,” Biden wrote on X.
A cascade of Harris endorsements followed, though it’s not yet clear if the party will fully align behind the vice-president.
She remains the likely favorite to take over the top of the ticket, but there could be calls for an open convention where a host of candidates would compete for delegates. Others have floated the idea of a “blitz primary” of rising stars who duke it out for the nomination, which would put Harris on even footing with other Democrats.
Other names that have surfaced as potential presidential – or maybe vice-presidential contenders – include the Michigan governor, Gretchen Whitmer; the California governor, Gavin Newsom; and the transportation secretary, Pete Buttigieg.
Expect lawsuits from the right
Republicans wanted to face Biden this fall, seeing it as a clear path to victory. Recent polls have shown that Trump was winning in key states.
A different, younger candidate that doesn’t carry Biden’s baggage will prove harder for Trump to beat. Trump is unlikable to a wide swath of voters, some of whom said they would leave the presidential line blank or stay home if faced with Biden or Trump again.
The Heritage Foundation foreshadowed legal challenges if Biden were replaced on the ballot, mentioning that swing states like Georgia, Nevada and Wisconsin could be targets for litigation based on state rules for ballot changes.
Johnson said in a CNN interview that he believed there will be Republican lawsuits on the way.
“It’ll be very interesting to see if the so-called ‘party of democracy’, the Democrats, go into a back room somewhere and switch it out and put someone else at the top of the ticket. I mean, I think they’ve got legal hurdles in some of these states. And it’ll be litigated, I would expect, on the ground there,” the House speaker said.
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