BOW, N.H. _ As John Lynch pitched Joe Biden's candidacy to a living room of 17 voters over pumpkin bread, Mediterranean pastry pinwheels and hot cider, Karen Cusano was struck by the parallel she noticed between the former four-term Democratic governor and former vice president.
"I think you did a lot ... bringing dignity, especially after [Craig] Benson," she told Lynch, referring to the Republican governor he succeeded 15 years ago. "You're just a really nice, smart, kind man. And that's how I think of Joe Biden as well. We had a lot of years with you. And so we know you."
A deficit hawk who favors increased gun control and worries about the solvency of Social Security, the 59-year-old Cusano has cast ballots for Democrats like Hillary Clinton, Republicans like John McCain and independents like Ross Perot.
In other words, she's exactly the type of voter Biden is counting on to cut into Bernie Sanders' advantage in New Hampshire.
While the 2020 Democratic campaigns kick into overdrive in Iowa, Biden's New Hampshire team is aggressively courting independent voters, who are expected to comprise more than 40% of the Feb. 11 primary electorate, to make up ground in the state _ and demonstrate the broad coalition the former vice president could attract in November.
"He scares me, because independents and Republicans won't vote for him," Cusano, a registered independent, said of Sanders. "In order to win, you need to get some people like me, and you need to get Republicans."
Unlike Iowa, where only registered Democrats can participate in next week's caucuses, any voter, regardless of party affiliation, can partake in the New Hampshire primary. Independent voters, who helped fuel John McCain in 2008 and Sanders in 2016, are poised to play an even more outsized role in a year where there is only one contested primary fight.
If Biden is successful in wooing unaffiliated voters, the strategy could serve as a template for future open primaries in delegate-rich states like North Carolina, Texas and Michigan.
But first, Biden will need to win over more independents to catch Sanders in New Hampshire, who easily won the state's primary in 2016, represents neighboring Vermont as an independent senator, and leads most polls by an average of 8 points. Surveys indicate Biden trailing Sanders among independents by more than a 2-to-1 margin in the state.
That's why the Biden campaign has deployed Lynch, the affable former centrist governor who was greeted warmly by voters of all persuasions during a five-day, 27-stop tour of New Hampshire this week, running a schedule more intense than most candidates keep.
"Forty-one percent of the voters are independents, undecideds as we call them in New Hampshire. Just try to convince them to take a Democratic ballot," Lynch urged attendees at the house party in Bow. "They're going to vote for Joe Biden. Just say, 'Look, make your vote count, because it's not going to count in the Republican primary, right? But It will count in the Democratic primary, so vote.' And I think most often, they'll vote for Joe Biden."
But interviews with campaign officials and surrogates didn't suggest they were expecting Biden to pull off a come-from-behind victory. Instead, they appeared to believe a second-place showing would be sufficient outcome for Biden, which could establish him as the predominant alternative to Sanders, who has experienced a polling bump in each of the first two nominating states over the last week.
"I don't think it'll be dispositive," said Gordon Humphrey, the former Republican senator who became an independent after President Donald Trump's election and has endorsed Biden. "Even if he is disappointed in New Hampshire, it's not going to slow him down. I'd like to tell you New Hampshire is make or break this time around _ I don't think it is."
One national Democratic consultant closely tracking the contest here said the race is for second place in New Hampshire. But the consultant also surmised if Sanders were to win Iowa, Biden could benefit from an "anti-Bernie psyche" that could spur independents into Biden's camp.
Biden's team is quick to note that Sanders won the 2016 primary by 22 points, a margin he's highly unlikely to achieve again. The geography alone always made it favorable territory for Sanders and Elizabeth Warren, the Massachusetts senator who has slipped to fourth place.
"I don't think there's any secret that candidates from neighboring states have an advantage," said Ian Moskowitz, Biden's state director. "If you asked me when we started if we'd be right up in this thing, I'd be thrilled."
The Biden campaign has rolled out 100 independents to serve as surrogates and broadened its get-out-the-vote operation into some Republican areas in the state, hoping to back up the electability arguments they are emphasizing ahead of the February contests.
Maureen McCabe, who canvassed for five hours on Sunday, knocking 48 doors for Biden in Goffstown, said she walked away a little discouraged after encountering so many Trump supporters. The president lost the state by just 2,700 votes in the 2016 general election, and has made flipping it a priority. He's scheduled a rally in Manchester the night before the primary.
"When I went back and told people in charge at headquarters they said, well, they did expand their list a little bit to include some in the past that maybe did vote Republican," McCabe said.
Of course, not all independents are moderates. Younger voters who are more progressive and disillusioned with the political system are registering as independents at higher rates than others, which explains Sanders' strength with the voting bloc.
Sanders adviser Jeff Weaver forecasted that nearly half of the New Hampshire vote this year could be supplied by independents, which he pointed to as a proof point of Sanders' electability.
"The New Hampshire primary is much better barometer of general election viability than other places because you have such a high participation rate by independents," Weaver said.
On the trail this week, Lynch was careful not to directly criticize Sanders, declining in an interview to opine on the democratic socialist's ability to carry New Hampshire's four electoral votes.
Yet in remarks, Lynch took swipes at two of Biden's more moderate rivals, Pete Buttigieg and Amy Klobuchar, both of whom are increasingly seen as obstacles to Biden's ability to consolidate the center-left swath of the party.
"Mayor Pete, South Bend is smaller than Manchester, so he certainly doesn't have the experience," Lynch said.
Minutes later, he referenced past reports alleging Klobuchar's mistreatment of her staff.
"I think it's telling when your employees really like you a lot. And his staff really likes Joe Biden," Lynch said. "I've heard mixed things about Amy's staff. You probably read or heard about some of the anecdotes."
As Lynch campaigned inside a popular Manchester eatery over the lunch hour, Denise Quattrochi indicated she and her husband had narrowed their choices to Biden, Buttigieg and Klobuchar.
As former Republicans who declared their independence after Trump's election, the Quattrochis both said they would vote tactically after watching Iowa play out.
"We're going to see who's winning, who we think is going to win at the end. That's who we'll vote for, to give them a push," Denise said as her husband closed their tab at the bar.
But if Sanders or Warren became the nominee, they would be faced with a difficult decision.
"I don't know what I'm going to do if it comes down to one of them," she said, noting their promises of free turned her off. "I worked, went to school nights to pay for my college."
The anxious sentiment of nominating a candidate too far to the left was repeated by many independents still making up their minds. Back in Bow, Cusano said she's embarrassed by the president's behavior, which has been cited by her grandchildren when she disciplines them.
"Calling people names. They don't understand it. They say, 'You can't call him names but the president calls people names all the time!'" she said. "And I said, 'He's not supposed to either.'"
Cusano has ruled out Buttigieg due to a lack of experience, is intrigued by Klobuchar and is drawn to Tulsi Gabbard's military background. Biden could still earn her vote too, but when she left the house party, he hadn't secured it just yet.
"But if it were Trump vs. Bernie, I don't know," Cusano said. "I would really have to think about that. I might choose not to vote."
