India is undercutting President Biden's strategy on Ukraine and backsliding on the human rights and democracy issues at "the core" of Biden's foreign policy — but U.S. officials are anxious to demonstrate this week that relations have never been better.
Why it matters: Prime Minister Narendra Modi's state visit underscores the stakes of the bet the U.S., and some major U.S. companies, are placing on the world's most populous country.
- India's economy is now the fifth-largest in the world, and by far the fastest-growing in the G20. U.S. firms like Apple see India both as a critical market and as an alternative production hub as they hedge away from China.
- U.S. policymakers, meanwhile, see India as arguably the biggest regional counterweight to Beijing's economic and military might.
- The gradual convergence between Washington and New Delhi over the past two decades is now speeding up considerably. "We're seeking escape velocity as we support India's emergence as a great power that will be central to ensuring U.S. interests and the interests of our partners in the coming decades," a senior U.S. official briefed reporters on Wednesday.
What's happening: India-China ties have deteriorated in parallel with U.S.-China ties, particularly after a deadly border skirmish in 2020.
- Modi has started embracing the Quad partnership with Australia, Japan and the U.S., after initially appearing sensitive to the perception it was an anti-China bloc. U.S.-India military exercises are growing more frequent.
- India's longstanding ties to Moscow and reliance on Russia for around three-quarters of its military kit remain a point of friction, but U.S. officials point to the fact that India is now looking to other suppliers, most notably the U.S.
- A deal to co-produce fighter jet engines is one of the primary deliverables from Modi's visit. There will also be announcements on topics including semiconductors, quantum computing, critical minerals, shipbuilding and drones.
Little surprise then, that the Biden administration is trying to make Modi’s visit a “transformational moment,” as national security adviser Jake Sullivan put it.
- Modi will attend a state dinner on Thursday and address a joint session of Congress.
- On issues like technology sharing that Biden and Modi will discuss, the U.S. is actually "moving a little bit faster even than we do with traditional allies," noted Richard Rossow of the Center for Strategic and International Studies in a media briefing.
Yes, but: India is not a U.S. ally, and doesn't want to become one. In fact, Indian officials openly scorn the idea of a "U.S.-led global order" — they envision a multipolar order, with India as one of the poles.
- Rather than endorsing Western sanctions after Russia's invasion of Ukraine, India has dramatically increased purchases of discounted Russian energy.
- Ahead of Modi's visit, analysts have debated whether India's approach to a U.S.-China crisis — over Taiwan, for example — would be significantly different.
What they're saying: “I believe India will side with the U.S. in any confrontation that we are engaged in with respect to China, but I think it’s unlikely that India will involve itself militarily short of any direct threats to India itself," said Ashley Tellis of the Carnegie Endowment said on the Grand Tamasha podcast.
- "India's strategy to deal with a belligerent Beijing runs through Washington," but "it also runs through Moscow," said Nirupama Rao, a former Indian foreign minister who also served as ambassador in both Washington and Beijing.
- "If you asked me to define India's position today [on China], I would say it's cautious without being pusillanimous," she told reporters. India is prepared to take on China on their shared border and in the Indian Ocean if it comes to that. Otherwise, "we have to tread cautiously."
The big picture: For U.S. officials too, the partnership with India is largely based on an alignment of interests.
- If the relationship were truly based on democratic values, it might be unlikely to reach an apex under Modi — who was once barred from the U.S. for failing as Gujarat governor to stop anti-Muslim riots that killed more than 1,000 in 2002.
- Freedom House downgraded India from "Free" to "Partly Free" on Modi's watch because of what it describes as "discriminatory policies and a rise in persecution affecting the Muslim population."
- U.S. officials insist Biden will raise human rights with Modi in private, but that will hardly be the focus of the visit.
The bottom line: “We have enemies, we know how to deal with those. We have allies, we have clear expectations of those. And then we have India in the middle, so we are making things up as we go along," Tellis said.
Go deeper: Tech's stake in the U.S.-India partnership
