With plenty of resources and a vast supply of election candidates at its disposal, Bhumjaithai is widely speculated to outdo the ruling Palang Pracharath Party (PPRP) at the next general election.
Led by Anutin Charnvirakul and backed by veteran power broker Newin Chidchob, the party has the election drums rolling and is not hiding its confidence.
At his birthday celebration in Buri Ram, the party's stronghold, on Oct 4, Mr Newin, dubbed by party members as "khru yai", pledged to help Mr Anutin become the next prime minister, with a target of winning 120 seats.
While there is little doubt about how Bhumjaithai will do, some observers have called the party's bluff when it comes to capturing as many as 120 seats and getting Mr Anutin elected as the next premier.
An ambitious goal
Bhumjaithai has grown much stronger since the 2019 election when it was the third-largest party in the coalition, with 51 lawmakers.
At present, it is the second largest with 59 MPs under its wings, and the number looks set to increase following talk about mass defections.
Dozens of MPs from both the government and opposition camps are believed to be eyeing Bhumjaithai as their new home and their defections will further raise the odds in the party's favour.
Even so, winning 120 House seats may be out of reach for Bhumjaithai, says Stithorn Thananithichot, director of the Office of Innovation for Democracy at King Prajadhipok's Institute.
"Winning 120 seats...I think that's too many, but in politics you should aim big to keep party members and supporters pumped up," he said.
The party has a solid chance of increasing its list of MPs and can comfortably win 70–80 seats because its constituency candidates are strong and it has something to show the voters from its stint as the coalition partner.
With the main opposition party, Pheu Thai, and the Move Forward Party sharing supporter bases and so competing with each other for votes, Bhumjaithai's chances are further boosted.
Bhumjaithai has attracted politicians because of how it positions itself, he said.
It projects itself as a key factor in determining who will form the government while maintaining good relations with both camps. This gives the party an edge amid political polarisation, not to mention that it has strong financial clout.
Mr Stithorn said the party's weak point is that it has yet to find a proper role for its leader, Mr Anutin, who will be the party's prime ministerial candidate. One option is to portray him as a "neutral figure" in the highly divisive political environment.
However, he is sceptical that the 250-member Senate, which will join the MPs in selecting the prime minister, will vouch for Mr Anutin unless it has to do so.
Wanwichit Boonprong, a political scientist at Rangsit University, said that based on its potential election candidates, the Bhumjaithai Party should win about 80 seats, mostly from the constituency system.
Of that, 40 seats will be in the Northeast, 15 in the Central Plains region, 10 in the South and the rest from the party-list system.
"The 120-seat figure can be seen as pre-game talk to boost party members' morale and a signal that the party is ready to go into the battle," said Mr Wanwichit.
Constituency MPs are strong suit
Mr Wanwichit likened the Bhumjaithai Party to the then Chart Thai Party led by the late prime minister Banharn Silpa-archa who consolidated the party with MPs. But Bhumjaithai also has populist policies to curry favour with voters.
The mid-sized party will do better than its coalition partners in the next election and will finish second after the Pheu Thai Party, he said. The party is probably the only thing that stands between Pheu Thai and its "landslide win".
"Bhumjaithai's poll performance will also decide Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha's political career and the party can drive a hard bargain for cabinet seats in exchange for its support of Gen Prayut if he seeks another term," he said.
Asked if the party would form an alliance with the Pheu Thai Party, he said the party is likely to make a decision based on the number of seats each party gains and even if it agrees to work with Pheu Thai, the party is likely to steer clear of any deal that could bring fugitive prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra home.
Between Mr Anutin and Paetongtarn Shinawatra, daughter of Thaksin and head of Pheu Thai's inclusion and innovation advisory committee, Mr Wanwichit said the military-appointed senate is likely to vouch for Mr Anutin who also has good ties with senators and the military.
Even if the Pheu Thai Party eventually does not go for Ms Paetongtarn as the prime ministerial candidate, with Thaksin lurking behind, Mr Anutin is considered a favourite among the candidates.
"If he is to succeed Gen Prayut he is likely to get support from senators with military ties. The odds are in his favour, provided there is no big difference in the number of seats between Bhumjaithai and the Pheu Thai," he said.
The party's weak point is that it does not cater to the middle class and those in the capital, so the party and its leader will not do well in opinion polls. But this does not seem to bother the party's confidence, he said.
Moreover, the main opposition party will face criticism if Capt Thamanat Prompow, one of the most controversial figures, rejoins its ranks, he added.
Mr Wanwichit also predicted the ruling PPRP will be wiped out in Bangkok and will likely grab about 40 seats in the constituency system. The Move Forward Party (MFP) and the Democrat Party will compete neck-to-neck.
'Do as promised'
Siripong Angsakulkiat, Bhumjaithai MP for Si Sa Ket, said Bhumjaithai's strength is reflected by its "do as promised" slogan and it is the only coalition party that can deliver 80% of its campaign pledges. Its platform policies for the poll will be practical and can be implemented too, he said.
Mr Siripong said the party's success in the decriminalisation of cannabis is being used by rivals to attack the party and it puts Bhumjaithai in a tight spot. He insisted legalisation of cannabis is intended for medical and research purposes only, and nothing else.
Looking to the election, he said the party has shortlisted about 200 election candidates, old and new, and based on their relation with constituents, 120 seats may not be out of reach.
"Every political party sets an ambitious goal. At worst, we should get at least 60 seats," he said.
When asked if the party will win enough to form a coalition government, the MP said Bhumjaithai is not a part in the political conflict, which grants it flexibility to form a political alliance with both camps.
Mr Siripong said parties will not need to worry about the Senate if they can form a decisive majority government. If the PPRP fails to secure enough seats in the next election, he believes the Senate has to give up and let go.
The MP did not object to the observation that Bhumjaithai became a political magnet because the party is well-prepared and its political neutrality makes it a better choice.
Somsak Prissanananthakul, a key party figure, said Bhumjaithai is a party of action, with policies that strike a chord with voters and its target of 120 seats has not come out of thin air.
He said most politicians eyeing the party as their new home are dao ruek (stars), a term referring to those with their own support bases, and they do not need the party's popularity to help them get elected.
With two ballots -- one for the constituency system and the other for the party-list system -- to be used, the party's approval rating is not a major factor in winning. On the other hand, these defectors can bolster the party's chance of winning big.
Discussing the party's shortcomings, Mr Somsak said as Bhumjaithai moves from a mid-sized party to a major party, it needs to have a think-tank to formulate policies and figure out how to implement them. It should also turn its focus to economic issues which are the highlights of many parties.
Political kingmaker
A source in the Pheu Thai Party said several politicians are drawn to Bhumjaithai because of the party's financial clout and the role of political kingmaker it is expected to assume after the election.
"Finance is a key factor and the party is likely to win big and be part of the post-election coalition government. I don't see any other reasons. Pheu Thai is going strong, but why did some decide to defect?" said the source.
But many of the defectors from Pheu Thai will have a difficult time retaining their seats and Bhumjaithai is unlikely to meet its target of capturing 120 seats even if it comes second, according to the source.
Bhumjaithai, which faces criticism following its decriminalisation of cannabis, may still win as many as 80 seats. The ruling PPRP, however, may see its seat tally drop down to 50 at its worst.
MFP secretary-general Chaitawat Tulathon reserved his opinion about Bhumjaithai's target, saying political work is not that easy, especially as the political situation has changed and people are more politically engaged.
The MFP is not bothered by potential defections to the Bhumjaithai and sees this as an opportunity for the party to get the house in order, he said.
"Focusing on personal gains and being elected is not the party's intention. We want members who look beyond that. We want those who are committed to pushing for changes," said Mr Chaitawat.
