For the first time in many weeks, Boris Johnson will not have to wonder this weekend if he is about to be toppled by Tory MPs angry about the Partygate scandal. Following the end of the police inquiry into multiple parties in Whitehall, some of the prime minister’s most ardent backbench critics have withdrawn their confidence letters from the 1922 Committee – which would have meant a vote on his leadership.
But there are other potentially damaging challenges before this summer that could add to the impression Johnson’s days are numbered.
The Sue Gray report
Next week is likely to see the publication of the report by the senior civil servant Sue Gray, who oversaw an inquiry into the Partygate scandal.
There are reports that the document will be highly critical of Johnson, both for attending some of the events and for the culture in No 10 under his leadership.
It may help answer whether the prime minister knew the rules were being broken. The language Gray uses will be key to how damaging the revelations will be for Johnson.
Privileges committee inquiry
In yet another unwanted precedent, Johnson will face a Commons inquiry over whether he lied to parliament about Downing Street parties and whether he attended them. No prime minister has previously been referred to the committee for scrutiny.
The inquiry is expected to focus on Johnson’s responses to questions in the Commons in 2021 about reports that there had been parties in No 10. He responded to many questions with assurances that the rules and guidance had been followed.
The ministerial code that bears the prime minister’s signature states clearly that ministers who deliberately mislead are expected to offer their resignation.
The committee will have wide-ranging powers to call for papers and other evidential documents – such as photographs, which could prove particularly damning for Johnson – and summon witnesses. But Johnson will know that there is an in-built government majority on the seven-strong committee, which may not wish to force him from office.
Byelections
Having survived the local elections, Johnson is braced for two more potentially damaging electoral battles in June. The Conservative party will hope to fight off a Lib Dem challenge in Tiverton and Honiton, where the party is running second; and in Wakefield, where the Tories unexpectedly won in 2019 but now face a resurgent Labour party.
Both contests will carry the pervasive stench of Tory sleaze – the Devon seat was vacated by Neil Parish, who admitted to twice watching pornography in the Commons chamber. The West Yorkshire seat is free after Imran Ahmad Khan resigned in April following his conviction for sexually assaulting a 15-year-old boy.
Northern Ireland protocol
Johnson has said the government will introduce a new law that will override the Brexit deal it signed with the EU, which set down trade rules for Northern Ireland. He is being cheered on by Brexiter commentators and the DUP, and a row with the EU does win approval from the Tory base vote.
But he will have to avoid several pitfalls that could have enormous consequences for the UK. The EU has said it could launch a trade war if the UK breaks an international agreement; existing rules would allow the trading bloc to hit UK goods with tariffs within seven days of legal action or freeze the entire trade deal. Alternatively, it could suspend parts of the agreement.
Any move unilaterally to break the move could spark the ire of Joe Biden’s administration which pays a close interest in the island of Ireland. The US House speaker, Nancy Pelosi, a leading Democrat, said this week that Congress “cannot and will not support a bilateral free trade agreement” with the UK if it undermined the arrangement.
Windfall tax
How to confront the growing cost of living crisis while raising cash to pay for levelling up is the problem many “red wall” Tories want Johnson to tackle.
Ministers are reportedly uncomfortable with a lack of policy initiatives. Multiple reports say No 10 is engaged in a battle with Rishi Sunak’s Treasury over how to respond to Labour’s call for a windfall tax on energy companies, which have enjoyed bumper profits as prices soar. Johnson is being urged by Tories to set out an alternative.
