Royal Caribbean (RCL) returned to sailing from Florida with the July 2 sailing of Freedom of the Seas.
It was a triumphant return after over a year without cruises from North America due to the pandemic, but it was hardly a return to normal.
That four-day sailing only carried about 800 passengers on a ship that could carry 4,375 people. Masks were required in certain indoor venues and there were rules about where unvaccinated people could go and certain venues were for the vaccinated only.
Carnival (CCL) and Norwegian (NCLH) experienced similar restarts with limited capacities and all three cruise lines dealt with ever-shifting protocols, limited capacities, and the looming specter of the Centers for Disease Control (CDC) conditional sailing order (CSO).
Now, the CSO has been lifted and the CDC has even lowered its risk level for cruises twice, from a "4," which basically means "don't take a cruise," to a "2," which makes it clear cruises are safe for healthy people.
That's good news for Royal Caribbean, Carnival, and Norwegian, but something the CDC just made public might be even better for the three big players in the U.S. cruise industry.
TheStreet
Is Covid Still a Cruise Line Problem?
Nearly every cruise ship operating from American ports — and all of the Royal Caribbean, Carnival, and Norwegian Cruise Line ships — have opted into the CDC's voluntary "Covid-19 Program for Cruise Ships."
That program requires the cruise lines to report actual, and even possible Covid cases on a daily basis.
To get a green designation, ships must have no active or suspected cases of Covid. Yellow status means fewer than three cases per 1,000 people onboard, while orange is 0.3% and higher. The CDC has a red designation, which it has not used, and gray designates ships that are not reporting to the CDC.
The situation onboard has improved dramatically since the worst of the omicron variant.
"At the worst mark, registered in mid-January 2022, just nine ships out of 107 tracked had ‘green’ status," Cruzely reported.
"... As cases on Omicron have tumbled in the United States, cruise lines are seeing a similar path. From a low of just nine ships about six weeks ago, the number of ‘green’ ships is now 52 (out of 115 reporting data). And beyond that, there are another 41 ships that have ‘yellow’ designation."
Why Is This Important to Cruise Line Investors?
Cruises have been happening but Covid has remained a factor.
Seasoned cruisers have returned by the more casual audience, as well as some older regular cruisers, have mostly not returned as they may be waiting for a more normal environment.
Former Food and Drug Administration Commissioner Scott Gottlieb, a physician who serves as chairman of Norwegian Cruise Line's SailSAFE Council, spoke on March 3 about the possibility of cruise lines being able to drop vaccination requirements.
“I think that it’s likely to be a requirement that is in place through this fall and winter,” Gottlieb said, according to a Cruzely report.
“I’m talking more about CDC and the policy environment. I think that the public-health officials — CDC — is going to want to see what the epidemiology of this disease is when it gets to a quote, unquote, ‘normal’ state."
The CDC data shows a tangible sign that the pandemic has faded/the methods the cruise lines have taken to combat the spread of Covid have worked.
That, along with some onboard changes like masks being optional, may bring the casual and even the first-time cruise audience back.
That's cause for celebration for Royal Caribbean, Carnival, and Norwegian because it shows that the industry may sooner rather than later return to normal.
