LAS VEGAS — What happens when the like-to-fight Canucks, who have brawled more than any other NHL organization this season, skate against clash-averse Carolina, which keeps the gloves on more than anyone?
I get lucky, that’s what. The Hurricanes belie their nickname, and their tame approach set the tone Sunday. No fights in that game helped me nearly triple my money at Green Valley Ranch (GVR).
Canadiens-Rangers and Coyotes-Jets filled out that slate. Five days earlier, I had first heard of these offerings in a tweet by veteran oddsman Dave Sharapan.
Station Casino properties dot the Vegas periphery, catering to locals, and its GVR is my home casino. Better odds and/or prices can often be had elsewhere, but its convenience is its proximity.
Moreover, Stations isn’t exactly known for exotic propositions.
I dove in Sunday, almost blindly parlaying NO on a fight occurring in Canucks-Hurricanes (at -220), Montreal-New York (-240) and Arizona-Winnipeg (-240). I aimed to feel it out, for possible future action.
It hadn’t been clear, on Sharapan’s note, that such a prop could be parlayed, so I was stoked to be able to tie all three together —turning my five bucks into $14.60.
PUGILISM IS POPULAR
The general response to Sharapan’s missive was positive. People like to bet YES or NO on the likelihood of a fight breaking out in a hockey game.
Fantastic … Love it … Need this at an Ohio book … I was asking for this the other day … I dig it … Am all for more hockey props … Never too much … IF you can parlay the numbers in today’s NHL.
One person inquired about player-to-be-KO’d odds. Not yet.
Fighting is quantified, and verified, in box scores as five-minute major penalties, and the Stations maximum for such parlay wagers is $500.
A ticket writer told me he watched a recent game in which two players dropped their gloves. It was quashed quickly, though; no major penalties were assessed.
In the minority were some who called it “too much,” or that it’s a prop “ripe” to be rigged. “You do know,” someone else wrote, “that hockey fights are staged, or pre-arranged, by players, right?”
I tapped veteran journo and expert puckman Steve Carp, The Sporting Tribune’s Vegas columnist. He doesn’t care for the prop. A purist, he enjoys the game for the skills displayed by the world’s best players.
Sometimes, he confirmed, two foes do agree to fight beforehand.
“There could be a window for impropriety. But if the limits are low, say a nickel [$500], it would not be worthwhile to rig a fight in order to cash a bet. Plus, no NHL player would risk a lifetime ban to make a few hundred bucks.”
Jeff Davis, the Circa Sports oddsman and hockey ace, offered “Will there be a fighting penalty assessed?” figures when he was at Caesars Palace during the Golden Knights’ inaugural season of 2017-18.
“Given our Strip location, road fans in for the games loved it. Did a decent small-dollar ticket count. As far as morality goes, we’re betting on something in a box score. Doesn’t apply here, in my opinion.
“Remember, NO is an option.”
TIDE TURNS
Through Monday, there had been 19 NHL games, among a total of 116 in January, with at least one fight, a 16.4% rate translating into theoretical odds of -500 (risk $500 to win $100) per game on NO.
On six of those days, at least 10 games were played. In those 68 games, nine had fights for a 13.2% rate, a theoretical -700 on NO.
Basically, I got the best of it Sunday. However, as sportsbooks are wont to do, Stations quickly tightened its screws.
Through Monday, according to HockeyFights.com, Vancouver led the NHL with 21 fights, followed by Philadelphia (20), Nashville (19), Ottawa (17) and Tampa Bay (16). Chicago had a middle-of-the-road 10.
Carolina, Buffalo and Detroit players had battled only twice apiece. With more games played, though, the Hurricanes had the lowest fight propensity in the league.
This is my foundation.
I rank squads, 1-32, in their fight frequencies. The higher the number, the less likely a team has resorted to fisticuffs. I highlight Monday games whose teams combine for a value of at least 40 as A plays, 30-39 as B action.
Panthers-Sabres merits a 47, a hot NO option. However, Stations omitted it from the menu — and no fights unfolded.
Flyers-Bruins, with a game rating of 8, isn’t on there, either. The likelihood of knuckles flying is solid — but nobody fights.
That leaves me with one A game, Red Wings-Avalanche (46), at -300 on NO. B matches included Golden Knights-Stars (36) and Rangers-Blue Jackets (36), both at -260. That parlay would have cashed, but I’m just observing.
It’s a whole new lens Tuesday, with several games (including Sabres-Blackhawks) at -450, others at -400. To equal that Sunday payoff, I now had to select five games.
Too dicey. That would have required including Jets-Canadiens, and Arber Xhekaj and Adam Lowry went at it with 37 seconds remaining.
John “The Barber” Taddio called betting on NHL fights “a stab in the dark. Maybe Calgary-Edmonton, the battle of Alberta. Depends on the game.”
I will monitor until NO on games creeps to -500 and -600, which likely has been done as this is being read.
