It has been a brutal year for quarterbacks, which has dramatically impacted betting lines. We’re only six weeks into the NFL season and the number of quarterbacks out, missing time or playing with injuries is astounding for this early in a season.
The list includes Joe Burrow, Justin Herbert, Trevor Lawrence, Kyler Murray, Justin Fields, Deshaun Watson, Aaron Rodgers, Anthony Richardson, Bryce Young, Jimmy Garoppolo, Daniel Jones and Ryan Tannehill.
Those guys represent starters for 38 percent of NFL teams, and nobody has played more than six games. It’s looks like it’s survivor mode in 2023.
Note: Odds are provided by BetMGM Sportsbook
Jacksonville Jaguars (+100) at New Orleans Saints (-120)
Three of Jacksonville’s four wins have come by double digits, and the Saints’ three wins have come against teams with a combined record of 3-18. The reason the spread is this close is because of questions as to whether Trevor Lawrence will play. I believe he does and makes the difference. Take the Jaguars on the moneyline (+100).
Las Vegas Raiders (-160) at Chicago Bears (+135)
This game has the lowest Over/Under of the week (37.5 points at -110 Over, -110 Under). You can’t get too much lower than this in an NFL game, but with injuries to both starting quarterbacks, the potential matchup of Aidan O’Connell vs. Tyson Bagent doesn’t do much for fans of either team – much less casual fans. Take Under 37.5 points (-110).
Cleveland Browns (-150) at Indianapolis Colts (+125)
Another battle of backup quarterbacks for offenses designed to run a lot. Points will be at a premium, which is why the Over/Under is low (40 points at -110 for both). This game has the look of more punts than scoring chances. Take Under 40 points (-110).
Buffalo Bills (-400) at New England Patriots (+310)
The Patriots have scored 20 points in their last three games combined, which makes them a heavy home underdog (8.5 points at -110 for both the Bills and Patriots). The Bills have a penchant for putting a beating on inferior teams and have beaten the Patriots by double digits in each of their last three meetings. Take the Bills and lay 8.5 points (-110).
Washington Commanders (-130) at New York Giants (+110)
Washington’s problem is defense, having allowed 33 or more points in four of their last five games. New York’s problem is offense, having scored just 71 points in six games. The Commanders are a small favorite (2.5 points at -105 Commanders, -115 Giants). It won’t take a ton of points to cover this spread. Take the Commanders and lay 2.5 points (-105).
Atlanta Falcons (+120) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-145)
There’s a reason this O/U is so low (38 points at -110 for both Over and Under). The Bucs have hit under this number in four of five games. The Falcons have scored just 50 points in their last four games. Both offenses are trying to find their footing, which could lend itself to a lot of running. Take Under 38 points (-110).
Detroit Lions (+130) at Baltimore Ravens (-155)
The Lions haven’t scored under 20 points in any game this season, which makes this Over/Under suspect (42 points at -110 for both). The Ravens have scored 24 or more points in all four of their wins and are home favorites. Too many stars align for this game to have more points than projected. Take Over 42 points (-110).
Pittsburgh Steelers (+135) at Los Angeles Rams (-160)
The Rams are the standard home favorite for evenly matched teams (3 points at -110 for both teams). The Steelers find ways to win games like this and are in line to improve to 4-2 with a win. This one could be a one-point game, so being given the cushion of three points is a bonus. Take the Steelers plus 3 points (-110).
Arizona Cardinals (+280) at Seattle Seahawks (-375)
The Cardinals are 1-5 and in free fall, having lost their last three games by 19, 14 and 17 points. Seattle has only played at home once since Week 1, and the 12th Man will be lending its loud support. The Seahawks are a solid favorite (7.5 points at -110 for both teams), but it should be higher given Arizona’s recent struggles. Take the Seahawks and lay 7.5 points (-110).
Green Bay Packers (-115) at Denver Broncos (-105)
After a strong start, Green Bay has lost three of its last four games and has a decimated offensive line. The Broncos are 1-5 and looking awful, but the Packers are only a one-point favorite. The oddsmakers know something on this one. Take the Broncos on the moneyline (-110).
Los Angeles Chargers (+195) at Kansas City Chiefs (-250)
The Chargers continue to find ways to lose, but the Chiefs haven’t been blowing people out. KC is a decent favorite (5.5 points at -110 for both). As with every bet involving the Chargers, you have to expect the bonehead coaching decision that turns a close game into a loss. Take the Chiefs and lay 5.5 points (-110).
Miami Dolphins (+110) at Philadelphia Eagles (-130)
Miami has been the story of 2023, but their five wins came against the Chargers, Patriots, Broncos, Giants and Panthers. The Eagles are small favorites (2 points at -110 for both) but are the better team. This should be a wild one with the world watching, and the Eagles should lay claim to their spot at the top of the NFL. Take the Eagles and lay 2 points (-110).
San Francisco 49ers (-300) at Minnesota Vikings (+240)
Some teams just have another team’s number. The 49ers pound Minnesota every time they play and are strong road favorites (6.5 points at -110 for both teams). Without Justin Jefferson, Minnesota needs to be a ball-control team. Even with injuries to Christian McCaffrey and Deebo Samuel, the Niners have the horses to win this one big. Take the 49ers and lay 6.5 points (-110).
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