As the bye weeks kick in and the number of games is reduced, Week 6 is something of an anomaly that happens once or twice a year.
Of the 14 games on the Week 6 schedule, seven road teams are favored and three of the favored home teams are by less than a field goal — historically an ominous sign. Home-field advantage is important in the NFL, but this week the clear idea is that the better teams are the road teams this week.
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook
NFL Betting Odds and Lines: Week 6
Washington Commanders (-110) at Chicago Bears (-107)
The Bears are 2-0 at home and the Commanders have lost four straight. Not a lot of points are expected here, and you get a better return on the moneyline with the Bears than you get by laying a half-point (-110). That doesn’t make a lot of sense to me, but I’ll take it. Take the Bears on the moneyline (-107).
San Francisco 49ers (-230) at Atlanta Falcons (+190)
I don’t think the 49ers are getting the respect they deserve. The 49ers defense has allowed just five touchdowns in five games, and the Niners have outscored their opponents 65-12 in the first half. The 49ers are a smaller favorite than expected (5.5 points at -108 49ers, -112 Falcons). I don’t see Atlanta scoring more than 16 points, so I’m comfortable with the spread. Take the 49ers and lay 5.5 points (-108).
Minnesota Vikings (-180) at Miami Dolphins (+150)
The Vikings have won three straight games under suspicious circumstances, but wins are wins. With Skylar Thompson being claimed to be the starter Sunday, Minnesota is modest road favorite (3.5 points at -108 Vikings, -112 Dolphins). This has the makings of a close game, but Thompson will make more critical mistakes than Kirk Cousins and that worth four or more points. Take the Vikings and lay the 3.5 points (-108).
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-400) at Pittsburgh Steelers (+310)
We’re treading new ground in Pittsburgh. The last time Pittsburgh had a losing record was in 2003 – three years before Mike Tomlin was hired. They’re 1-4, are 0-2 at home and have lost two of their last three games by double digits. Tampa Bay is a healthy road favorite (7.5 points at -112 Buccaneers, -108 Steelers). Pittsburgh hasn’t been able to run the ball, and the Bucs’ attacking defense will make life miserable for rookie QB Kenny Pickett. The Buccaneers have the chance to roll for one of the rare times this season. Take the Buccaneers and lay the 7.5 points (-112).
Baltimore Ravens (-250) at New York Giants (+205)
When is the last time you can remember a 4-1 teams as a 5.5 underdog at home against a 3-2 team? The Ravens are that team (5.5 points at -112 Ravens, -108 Giants). The oddsmakers simply don’t believe in New York. Neither do I. Take the Ravens and lay the 5.5 points (-112).
Cincinnati Bengals (-130) at New Orleans Saints (+110)
The Saints seem to find ways to lose, which can help explain why the Bengals are road favorites (2.5 points at -110 for both teams). The Bengals haven’t been above .500 all season, but this is a game for Joe Burrow to shine. The Saints have just one interception and good QBs carve them up. Take the Bengals and lay the 2.5 points (-110).
Jacksonville Jaguars (+105) at Indianapolis Colts (-150)
I don’t like the Over/Under here (42.5 points at -108 Over, -112 Under). The Colts have not scored more than 20 points in a game all season, and the Jaguars have allowed 13 points or fewer in three of their last four games. I was expecting and O/U of less than 40 points and was pleasantly surprised. Take the Under (-112).
New England Patriots (+125) at Cleveland Browns (-150)
The Patriots are coming off a domination of Detroit, which explains why the Browns are small favorites (2.5 points at +100 Patriots, -125 Browns). I expect the spread will go over three points before game time, so I’m getting in now. Take the Browns and lay 2.5 points (-125).
New York Jets (+270) at Green Bay Packers (-340)
Both teams are 3-2, but the Packers are prohibitive favorites (7.5 points at -120 Packers, -101 Jets). Those setting the lines don’t want to drop the spread lower than a touchdown, because it would shift the betting much more heavily to Green Bay. I look at the Jets’ two losses this season. Both have been by 15 points. I can envision the same for a Packers team humbled in London and looking for revenge. Take the Packers and lay the 7.5 points (-120).
Carolina Panthers (+360) at Los Angeles Rams (-460)
The Rams are 2-3 but the three losses have been to the Bills, 49ers and Cowboys – all likely playoff teams. The Panthers aren’t in the category, and the Rams have been installed the biggest favorite of the week (10.5 points at -115 Panthers, -105 Rams). Good teams find a way to beat up on the weaker teams on their schedule. The Rams survived a brutal first five games and need to roll the lesser teams when they get them. That’s what championship teams do. Take the Rams and lay the 10.5 points (-105).
Arizona Cardinals (-140) at Seattle Seahawks (+117)
I’m done with Over/Under bets involving Seattle after their last two games had 93 and 71 points scored. The Cardinals are one of the disappointments of the first portion of the season but are still respected enough to be road favorite (2.5 points at -120 Cardinals, -101 Seahawks). I’ve quit betting on Seattle games, but have to make a call here, and I still think the Seahawks are going to collapse as the season goes on. Take the Cardinals and lay 2.5 points (-120).
Buffalo Bills (-140) at Kansas City Chiefs (+117)
Last week I was all over the Over when the Chiefs played the Raiders when the Over was 50.5. It’s even more stiff this time around (54.5 points at -105 Over, -115 Under). Once Kansas City feel behind to the Raiders last week, it played into the hand of the bet. I have said since the preseason Buffalo is the best team in the NFL. The Chiefs will try to stay with them punch for punch and both teams will take big shots and hit enough of them. Take the Over (-105).
Dallas Cowboys (+215) at Philadelphia Eagles (-260)
I’m not on the Cooper Rush train, but I am on the Micah Parsons train. The Eagles are the last unbeaten team in the league and are being shown that respect on the line (6.5 points at -117 Cowboys, -103 Eagles). I get the feeling it’s going to drop a point before game time, but while I believe the Eagles are capable of a double-digit win, Dallas hasn’t allowed more than 19 points in a game all season, which doesn’t leave much needed to cover that spread. Take the Cowboys plus 6.5 points (-117).
Denver Broncos (+190) at Los Angeles Chargers (-230)
The Over/Under (45.5 points at -108 Broncos, -112 Chargers) is curious, because the Broncos have hit under that number in four of five games and the Chargers have hit over that number in their last four. The fact L.A. is only favored by 4.5 points says the game is expected to be close. In that case, the Under rules more times than not. Take the Under at 45.5 points (-112).
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