When betting the Over/Under, the lines are typically set with a number at or above 40 combined points. Every week, there are a couple games at 40 points or lower. Given all the injuries to quarterbacks this season, of the 15 games played seven of them have a current O/U of 40 or fewer points.
Those games include Rams-Ravens (40 points), Buccaneers-Falcons (39.5), Panthers-Saints (37.5), Packers-Giants (36), Texans-Jets (33), Jaguars-Browns (30.5) and Patriots-Steelers (30).
The 30-point O/U is the lowest in decades and another game is just a half-point higher. This could be an epically bad week for fantasy football, but a good week for defenses.
Odds provided by BetMGM Sportsbook
New England Patriots (+220) at Pittsburgh Steelers (-275)
This is the lowest Over/Under number since 1993 (30 points at -110 for both Over and Under). While I understand why it’s so low — the teams average fewer than 30 points a game between them — too many things have to go to script to stay under. Take Over 30 points (-110).
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+115) at Atlanta Falcons (-135)
The Buccaneers are small road underdogs despite losing six of their last eight games (2.5 points at -110 for both teams). It should be noted that the two Bucs wins in that span have come against the Titans and Panthers at home. Take the Falcons and lay 2.5 points (-110).
Detroit Lions (-165) at Chicago Bears (+145)
The Lions are closing in on wrapping up the NFC North but are modest road favorites (3.5 points at +100 Lions, -120 Bears). The Bears have Justin Fields back but simply don’t score enough points to hang with the Lions for 60 minutes. David Montgomery gets 25 touches in a revenge play. Take the Lions and lay 3.5 points (+100).
Jacksonville Jaguars (+145) at Cleveland Browns (-175)
Another incredibly low Over/Under number (30.5 points at -110 for both Over and Under). Both teams are on backup quarterbacks, but both have opportunistic defenses that could get a touchdown of their own along the way to help this peewee number. Take Over 30.5 points (-110).
Carolina Panthers (+185) at New Orleans Saints (-225)
The Saints are solid home favorites (5.5 points at -115 Panthers, -105 Saints). Five of Carolina’s seven road losses have been by seven points or more and the Saints are due for a make-right game that gets them back in contention in the weak NFC South. Take the Saints and lay 5.5 points (-105).
Houston Texans (-225) at New York Jets (+180)
The Texans have won four of their last five games and are solid road favorites (4 points at -110 for both). This pick isn’t so much an endorsement of the Texans as an indictment of the Jets, who have scored just 45 points in their last five games. Take the Texans and lay 4 points (-110).
Los Angeles Rams (+275) at Baltimore Ravens (-350)
The Rams have won three straight but are heavy road underdogs (7 points at -110 for both teams). While other top teams have stumbled recently, the Ravens have won six of their last seven and are coming off their bye week. Look for the Ravens to roll. Take the Ravens and lay 7 points (-110).
Minnesota Vikings (-155) at Las Vegas Raiders (+130)
The Vikings are mild road favorites (3 points at -110 for both teams). The return of Justin Jefferson should infuse life into a Vikings team that controls its own playoff destiny and has been playing extremely well defensively over the past two months. Take the Vikings and lay 3 points (-110).
Seattle Seahawks (+400) at San Francisco 49ers (-550)
This game has a pretty high Over/Under (46.5 points at -110 for both teams). In their nine wins, the 49ers have scored 30 or more eight times and averaged 33 points. If the Niners have an “average” win, Seattle will only need to come up with 14 points to top the number. Take Over 46.5 points (-110).
Buffalo Bills (+105) at Kansas City Chiefs (-125)
So many of the projected marquee shootout games have had high Over/Unders, and this is no exception (48.5 points at -110 for both Over and Under). The Chiefs aren’t an offensive juggernaut, and the Bills make too many mistakes that kill drives. Take Under 48.5 points (-110).
Denver Broncos (+120) at Los Angeles Chargers (-145)
The Over/Under here is pretty high for a divisional game (44 points at -110 for both). The Chargers have scored just 36 points in their last three games, and Denver has hit under this number in six of its last seven games. Take Under 44 points (-110).
Philadelphia Eagles (+145) at Dallas Cowboys (-175)
The Cowboys find themselves as home favorites against the No. 1 seed in the NFC (3.5 points at +100 Eagles, -120 Cowboys). The investment needs shows that this point might go higher, but the Eagles are likely to pull out all the stops after being humbled by the 49ers last week. Take the Eagles plus 3.5 points (+100).
Tennessee Titans (+575) at Miami Dolphins (-800)
I hate huge point spreads, and this is the biggest one of the week (13.5 points at -110 for both teams). The problem is six of Miami’s last seven wins have surpassed this number, and the Titans aren’t a team that is built to play from behind and be pass-heavy. If they get down double digits, things will get worse instead of better. Take the Dolphins and lay 13.5 points (-110).
Green Bay Packers (-300) at New York Giants (+240)
The Packers are big road favorites (6.5 points at -110 for both teams). That is a lot of points, but the Giants have scored 17 points or fewer in 10 of their 12 games, and there is little reason to think the Packers can’t score enough to cover this. Take the Packers and lay 6.5 points (-110).
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