Week 10 in the NFL could be a big week for home cookin’. Of the 14 games on the schedule, only three road teams are favored – two because they’re playing the hapless Carolina Panthers and Pittsburgh Steelers, and the Dallas Cowboys on the road against the reeling Green Bay Packers, who have lost five straight.
This may be the biggest week of the season to date to focus on the point spread, because that’s where the best bets are going to be found.
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook
NFL Betting Odds and Lines: Week 10
Atlanta Falcons (-140) at Carolina Panthers (+117)
The Falcons somehow find themselves in first place in this brutal division, so it makes sense that they a mild road favorite (2.5 points at -120 Falcons, +100 Panthers). It’s not that I have any faith whatsoever in the Falcons, I just have less faith in the Panthers. Take the Falcons and lay 2.5 points (-120).
Seattle Seahawks (+120) vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-150)
The Seahawks are one of the most surprising teams in the NFL this season, and the Buccaneers are a very modest favorite playing in Munich (2.5 points at -120 Buccaneers, -101 Seahawks). I still have a hard time laying off the Bucs as being done, because I believe they have the talent to flip the switch and roll off four or five straight wins when they’re right. Geno Smith takes a beating, and the Bucs try to get things moving in the right direction. Take the Buccaneers and lay 2.5 points (-120).
Minnesota Vikings (+160) at Buffalo Bills (-200)
A week ago, Buffalo was an early 9.5-point favorite. With news of Josh Allen‘s elbow injury it has dropped like a rock (3.5 points at -110 for both teams). If Allen can’t go, backup Case Keenum is reunited with Stefon Diggs against the team in which they performed the Minneapolis Miracle. The Bills will miss Allen is he doesn’t play, but I would still have the spread closer to 7 points than 3.5. Take the Bills and lay 3.5 points (-110).
New Orleans Saints (-130) at Pittsburgh Steelers (+105)
Neither offense has been able to consistently move the ball, which explains the low Over/Under (40.5 points at -105 Over, -115 Under). I’m convinced this number will rise a point or two before game time, which is fine by me because I think the first team to 20 wins. Take the Under (-115).
Detroit Lions (+120) at Chicago Bears (-150)
The Bears are a much different team since they’ve opted to let Justin Fields run more, but O/U is too high (48.5 points at -110 for both Over and Under). Both teams have shaky pass offenses and not a ton of big-play guys, so I see running as being the primary way of moving the ball. Two or three field goals at the end of long drives makes this number really hard to hit. Take the Under (-110).
Cleveland Browns (+150) at Miami Dolphins (-190)
The Browns are coming off their bye, and Miami’s offense is posting gaudy numbers. The Over/Under here is the same point as the Lions-Bears game (48.5 points at -110 for both). Both teams are capable of putting points on the board and neither tends to let up if an opposing defense can’t stop what they’re doing. Take the Over (-110).
Houston Texans (+180) at New York Giants (-230)
I’ve been on record that I believe the success the Giants have had is not sustainable. They’re a solid favorite (5 points at -110 for both teams). It’s showing respect for a team at home against one of the league dregs. While you won’t catch me on the G-Men bandwagon, I’m hopping a ride this week. Take the Giants and lay 5 points (-110).
Jacksonville Jaguars (+330) at Kansas City Chiefs (-450)
This game features the highest Over/Under of any game on the Week 10 slate (50.5 points at -110 Over, -110 Under). The biggest problem I have here is that I’m not convinced the Jaguars can score more than 17 points and their defense is good enough to keep the Chiefs to 35 or less. Take the Under (-110).
Denver Broncos (+115) at Tennessee Titans (-140)
While I’m intrigued by the pee-wee Over/Under on this one (37 points), I’m more interested in the Titans being less than a touchdown favorite (2.5 points at -105 Broncos, -115 Titans). This has the cliche “trap game” written all over it – Broncos coming off their bye and Titans coming off a tough loss on Sunday night to the Chiefs. Tennessee has been underestimated all year. If Ryan Tannehill is back, the offense can be two-dimensional, which allows Derrick Henry to do his thing. Take the Titans and lay 2.5 points (-115).
Indianapolis Colts (+205) at Las Vegas Raiders (-260)
The Colts are in disarray, which helps explain why the Raiders are such a big favorite (6 points at -115 Colts, -105 Raiders). The Colts set the standard when they “sucked for Luck” and threw a QB to the wolves for an entire season to get a QB in the draft. I think we’re witnessing S4L 2.0 with their recent decisions. Take the Raiders and lay 6 points (-105).
Dallas Cowboys (-240) at Green Bay Packers (+190)
The Cowboys are 6-2 Against the Spread, which means they beat the teams they’re supposed by the amount they should. The Packers are again a big underdog (5 points at -110 Cowboys, -110 Packers). Green Bay has struggled against marginal defenses. The Cowboys are rested coming off their bye week and not intimidated by Lambeau Field, much less for a host on a five-game losing streak. The conventional wisdom is that the Packers will find a way. If they can’t do it against the Commanders or Lions, what makes you think Dallas will lay an egg? Take the Cowboys and lay 5 points (-110).
Arizona Cardinals (off) at Los Angeles Rams (off)
Both teams are extremely banged up and a lot of big-time players didn’t practice Wednesday. That can help explain why the Over/Under is so low (41.5 points at -110 for both). Seeing as neither team has been able to run consistently or effectively, I see too many passes being thrown to keep this one that low scoring. Take the Over (-110).
Los Angeles Chargers(+245) at San Francisco 49ers (-320)
The 49ers are a big favorite because the Chargers are so unpredictable from week to week. However, the Over/Under is interesting (45 points at -115 Over, -105 Under). The 49ers at their best control the clock and force teams to play their style. Justin Herbert will get his, but this has the feel of a 23-20 type game with as many or more field goals than touchdowns. Take the Under (-105).
Washington Commanders (+360) at Philadelphia Eagles (-500)
The last time the Eagles were huge home primetime favorites, they dominated but took their foot off the gas long enough not to cover. They’re big favorites again (10.5 points at -108 Commanders, -112 Eagles). Against a division rival on its backup QB, if there’s blood in the water, the Eagles should attack. Take the Eagles and lay 10.5 points (-112).
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