Last week, we pondered the potential for any of the four road teams winning their respective games. Three of them did, and it’s still unfathomable how Buffalo didn’t win with the lead with just 13 seconds to play.
As we head to the Conference Championship games with just one of the top three seeds still playing, nobody is taking anyone lightly on their respective paths to the Super Bowl, especially given the road teams are a combined 3-0 this season against the favored home teams.
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NFL Betting Odds and Lines: Championship Week
Cincinnati Bengals (+260) at Kansas City Chiefs (-340)
We’re doing two bets per game this week, starting with the point spread. The Bengals beat the Chiefs 34-31 in their first meeting, but Kansas City is a significant favorite this time around (7.5 points at -115 Bengals, -105 Chiefs). While Kansas City is a dominant team, its defense is vastly overrated. The Bengals have a lot of weapons and, even if Cincy falls behind by 14 points, the Chiefs will likely get conservative to kill the clock. While Kansas City is likely headed to its third straight Super Bowl, spotting Cincy 7.5 points is a little too many for my liking. Take the Bengals plus 7.5 points (-115).
Cincinnati Bengals (+260) at Kansas City Chiefs (-340)
The Bengals and Chiefs have only met three times since 2015, and every one of them has been high-scoring (57, 55 and 65 points). Only the last one – the highest score of the three – came with the array of offensive talent both teams currently field. The Over/Under is obscene (54.5 points at -108 Over, -112 Under). But, both defenses have proved capable of being burned for big plays. The Bengals have been Under in both of their playoff games this season in a big way (45 and 35 points scored). If the Bengals offensive line can protect Joe Burrow, he’s capable of putting up 27 points. Seeing as the Chiefs are our pick to win, 27 is enough for the Bengals. Take the Over (-108).
San Francisco 49ers (+155) at Los Angeles Rams (-190)
The 49ers have owned this rivalry in recent years, winning the last six meetings over the last three years. Yet, despite that rivalry dominance, the Rams are moderate favorites (3.5 points at -110 for both teams). The Rams have done what they did during their last Super Bowl season – mortgage the draft equity for the next couple of years for a run at the Lombardi Trophy. The result is that, despite having the better team, some teams “have the number” of the other. While I would hesitate taking San Francisco on the Moneyline, 3.5 points is a little too many for a team that has ownership of the recent rivalry. Take the 49ers plus 3.5 points (-110).
San Francisco 49ers (+155) at Los Angeles Rams (-190)
What makes this Over/Under (45.5 points at -115 Over, -105 Under) is intriguing because, while both teams are capable of scoring 27 or more points – San Francisco did it eight times, the Rams did it 10 times – their recent matchups have been marked more by field goals than touchdowns. They’ve hit Under this numbers in three of their last four meetings. But, if either team hits more than 27 points, this number should be too easy to surpass. Both teams are capable of it and one (if not both) should be able to get this number. Take the Over (-115).
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