Donald Trump rebuilt a vast lead over Kamala Harris in betting market forecasts as presidential election results were counted on Tuesday night.
The former president and his allies touted projections from top gambling platforms that put him way ahead of Harris in recent weeks, going so far as to suggest they were more accurate than traditional opinion polls.
While betting markets narrowed significantly in the final days of the campaign, and Harris even retook the lead on one platform this weekend, Trump surged ahead as polls closed on election day.
Betting markets have surged in popularity during this election campaign, with prominent apps like Polymarket and Kalshi surging up the app stores. By late Tuesday evening, Polymarket gave Trump a 93% chance of winning back the White House. Kalshi put Trump’s chances at 90% and Harris at 10%. PredictIt put Trump at 90%.
Bets in these markets are bids on political futures contracts. Buying a contract – like the prospect of a Harris, or Trump, presidency – drives the price of that contract, or the perceived probability of it happening, higher.
The forecasts these platforms produced for who was most likely to win the election diverged from typical opinion polls. While the polls pointed to an incredibly close contest for the White House, betting platforms have been putting Trump ahead for weeks.
Should you have turned to Polymarket on Tuesday, for example, and bet on Trump, you would receive $1 for every 93¢ you wagered if he wins the election. These returns had fallen drastically in 24 hours: Polymarket was offering $1 for every 58¢ wagered on a Trump victory the previous day.
The betting market projections shifted significantly on Tuesday evening as news outlets started issuing their first projections and calls for the election.
Read more of the Guardian’s 2024 US election coverage
