Betting markets are predicting higher egg prices and more tariffs, among other things rattling financial markets.
President Donald Trump’s burgeoning trade war with America’s top trading partners Canada, Mexico, and China is worrying investors, with betting markets providing a clue as to what might come next.
Betting sites, such as Polymarket and Kalshi, garnered attention during the 2024 election as they predicted that Trump would win, while polling averages saw an even race. Users have since used the sites to bet on a wide variety of things, such as pop culture and the weather.
Bettors are now forecasting that Trump’s trade war isn’t set to end with tariffs on China, Canada, and Mexico.
According to bettors on Polymarket, the European Union will be the next target to get caught up in Trump’s trade ire. One bet on the site, which has seen more than $181,000 in trading volume, gives the EU a 77 percent chance of being the next target within the window of Trump’s first 100 days back in the White House.
At the weekend, Trump told the press that the EU could face tariffs “pretty soon.”
Another Polymarket bet asks: “How large will Trump's EU tariffs be?”
Sixty-six percent said they will be between 10 and 20 percent.
Betters also give Panama a 29 percent chance of being targeted by Trump in the first 100 days, while Taiwan gets a 24 percent chance, according to Business Insider.
The Trump administration has accused Panama of handing control of the Panama Canal to China and has called for it to be given back to the U.S.
Another bet on Kalshi indicates that Colombia and South Korea may also be hit by tariffs by the U.S.
But bettors on Polymarket also view it as likely, giving it a 62 percent chance, that Trump will remove tariffs on Canada before May.
People are also betting that egg prices, a trendsetter for inflation, are set to continue to rise. Those using Polymarket are betting that the price of a dozen eggs will keep going up, with the highest odds placed on a price range of $5.50-$5.75 this month. Figures from the St. Louis Federal Reserve reveal that the city average for a dozen eggs was $4.14 in December.
