The NCAA men’s field of 68 is finally set, which means it’s time to start filling out brackets beginning with the First Four games.
In the South Region, Texas A&M-Corpus Christi is playing Southeast Missouri St. for a chance to play 1-seed Alabama in the first round. The other 16-seed First Four game is between Texas Southern and Fairleigh Dickinson in the East, where Purdue is the 1 seed.
The 11-seed First Four games are between Mississippi State and Pittsburgh in the Midwest and Arizona State and Nevada in the West.
Bettors don’t just want to know who’s moving on, they want to know the best ways to make money. So below is my best bet for each matchup, and I also included my best guess for who will move on.
16 SE Missouri St. vs. 16 Texas A&M-CC (South Region)
Expect a lot of points between two teams that play with a lot of pace and, as a result, rank top 50 in the country in scoring while allowing more than 70 points per game to opponents.
That’s where the similarities end.
A&M-CC has a 12-1 record since Jan. 26, running through the Southland with relative ease. The Islanders averaged 82 points in that span while allowing just 66. Their top seven scorers are all seniors. They’re 10-3 ATS in their last 13 games.
SE Missouri struggled through an arguably weaker Ohio Valley Conference before a surprising run to the tournament title. The Redhawks have just one win since the new year as an underdog by this many points.
Best bet: Texas A&M-CC -3.5
11 Pittsburgh vs. 11 Mississippi State (Midwest Region)
Neither of these teams enter this game with much momentum, both having lost more than they’ve won since the start of March.
It’ll be a battle of different styles, putting Pitt’s high-scoring offense against a Mississippi State defense that holds opponents to just 61 points per game. That makes for a tough pick on the moneyline, but the total for this game seems too low.
Pittsburgh scores with ease — thus an 8-2 record to the over in its last 10 games. And I’m expecting Mississippi State big man Tolu Smith to have a big game on the offensive glass and help the Bulldogs keep pace. They’re 7-2 to the over in their last nine.
Best bet: Over 131.5 points (Mississippi State advances)
16 Fairleigh Dickinson vs. 16 Texas Southern (East Region)
The first thing that jumped out to me when analyzing these teams is Texas Southern’s losing record, and the three-game losing streak it had prior to winning the SWAC.
Then I saw how many more SWAC teams have better KenPom ratings than Northeast Conference teams, and that made me feel better about how the Tigers match up.
Still, I’d stay away from trying to predict a winner under these circumstances and go with another bet on the total. Three straight Texas Southern games have fallen under the total, as have four of Fairleigh Dickinson’s last six games, including the last two.
Best bet: Under 146.5 (Texas Southern advances)
11 Nevada vs. 11 Arizona State (West Region)
I get why the Sun Devils are favored here. They play in the Pac-12 and have recent wins over USC and Arizona. Nevada is riding a three-game losing streak.
But I can’t shake this feeling that if this comes down to the wire, like the spread suggests it will, Nevada will have an edge thanks to elite free-throw shooting and slightly better 3-point shooting. And because of a go-to scorer like Jarod Lucas, who’s been lighting it up for an average of 25 points on 54% shooting over the last three games.
Lately, Nevada has either won outright or lost ATS. It rarely covers in a loss, so I’ll take the moneyline.
Best bet: Nevada ML
