Given the proliferation of committee backfields, each NFL defense will face usually two or three running backs in the course of most games. Turning in one of the best eight games allowed by a secondary is an elite performance considering that defense.
Below shows how often a player logged the best game allowed by a secondary (Top-1), one of the four best performances allowed (Top-4), and one of the best eight performances (Top-8). With 17 games played, a Top-8 game is “above average” among the best running back from each opponent.
The “Better than Average” (BTA) score is a weighting of those games.
Better than average: QB | RB | WR | TE
Bottom line: This is a true measurement of how productive a running back was when schedule influences are removed. It compares them to other running backs that faced that same defense. If a player rates higher here than they did with 2022 fantasy points, it means they were limited by a schedule and are better than their last year’s stats suggest.
The position declined in perceived value for NFL teams but they still crank out plenty of fantasy-relevant stats each week and a top player offers consistency that rivals or exceeds other positions. Only six backs logged a Top-8 performance in more than half of their games and their names were familiar – Austin Ekeler, Josh Jacobs, Nick Chubb, Derrick Henry, Saquon Barkley. But also Rhamondre Stevenson as he took over the backfield for the Patriots.
Only ten backs enjoyed five or more Top-4 games allowed by a defense. They included Aaron Jones, Stevenson, Tony Pollard and Leonard Fournette. The players that fell in the metric were Saquon Barkley, Miles Sanders, Joe Mixon, Christian McCaffrey, and Kenneth Walker.
The running backs that dropped in the rating last year were Jonathan Taylor, Najee Harris, Ezekiel Elliott, and Alvin Kamara. Christian McCaffrey changed teams, but his lower stats were still surprising for a player that is still taken very highly in fantasy drafts.
Not as much dominance here. Josh Jacob’s well-timed career year placed him at the top with Miles Sanders and Christian McCaffrey, but that was only three top performances for each. It is encouraging to see Tony Pollard and Kenneth Walker logging two top performances.
